基于投入产出模型的冰雪灾害间接经济损失评价研究

发布时间：2018-08-31 09:57

【摘要】：近年来,人类对生态环境破坏的加剧和自然环境因素的双重影响,全球气候异常事件频繁发生。气候异常事件中最典型的是2008年年初在南方地区肆虐的大面积雨雪冰冻灾害天气。冰雪灾害不仅对农林业、电力业和交通业产生巨大的破环产生直接经济损失,而且对社会经济系统中的其他行业也会产生间接经济损失。此外,雨雪冰冻灾害也对人们正常的生产生活影响深远。我国是一个北旱南涝十分严重的国家,但是持续的冰雪灾害发生在南方地区还是十分罕见。2008年南方冰雪灾害经济损失最严重的省份是湖南省。如何科学地评估南方冰雪灾害对湖南省造成的经济总损失值是一个值得深入探讨的课题。现实生活中常说的经济损失是一个宏观的范畴,灾害经济学中把经济损失分为直接经济损失和间接经济损失,直接经济损失可以通过统计得出,但间接经济损失如何计量目前学术界还没有形成统一的标准。本文通过分析冰雪灾害的灾害链(网络)传导机理,研究冰雪灾害对经济系统的危害,比较分析CGE模型、SAMs模型、系统动力学模型、生产函数模型、投入产出模型等评估模型的优劣势,最终选取投入产出模型为主要的分析模型,以湖南省2007年的投入产出表为数据来源,对湖南省冰雪灾害间接经济损失进行实证研究,得出了社会经济系统各部门的间接经济损失值,并提出了阻碍灾害网络链传播的救灾应急对策和灾后恢复重建对策。
[Abstract]:In recent years, due to the double influence of human being on the ecological environment damage and natural environment factors, the global climate anomaly events occur frequently. The most typical of the abnormal weather events is the massive rain and snow ice disaster that ravaged the southern region in early 2008. Ice and snow disasters not only produce direct economic losses to agriculture and forestry, electric power industry and transportation industry, but also produce indirect economic losses to other industries in social economic system. In addition, rain and snow freezing disasters also have a profound impact on people's normal production and life. China is a country with severe drought and waterlogging in the north and south, but it is still very rare for the snow and ice disasters to occur in the south. In 2008, Hunan Province was the province with the most serious economic losses of the snow and ice disasters in the south. How to scientifically evaluate the total economic losses caused by the snow and ice disasters in the south of Hunan Province is a subject worthy of further discussion. In real life, economic losses are often said to be a macro category. In disaster economics, economic losses are divided into direct economic losses and indirect economic losses, and direct economic losses can be obtained by statistics. However, how to measure indirect economic losses has not yet formed a unified standard in academia. In this paper, the mechanism of disaster chain (network) conduction of ice and snow disasters is analyzed, and the harm of ice and snow disasters to economic system is studied. The CGE model, system dynamics model, production function model are compared and analyzed. Finally, the input-output model is selected as the main analysis model, and the input-output table of Hunan Province in 2007 is taken as the data source to carry out an empirical study on the indirect economic losses of ice and snow disasters in Hunan Province. The indirect economic losses of various departments in the social and economic system are obtained, and the emergency countermeasures and reconstruction countermeasures for disaster recovery and reconstruction are put forward, which hinder the transmission of disaster network chain.
【学位授予单位】：湖南科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：D632.5

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