关键节点研究:历史制度主义中的理论、叙事和反事实分析

发布时间：2018-10-26 19:33

【摘要】：在历史制度主义的研究中,路径依赖的概念受到了广泛重视,而作为制度平衡起点的关键节点却长期被忽视,本文旨在纠正这种不足。首先,文章将"关键节点"定义为时间轴中相对较短的时期,在该时期内行为者的选择影响最终结果的可能性大幅提高。这一定义涉及以下四个方面的问题:第一,分析单位,即对关键节点的分析应限定在某一分析单元内;第二,时间跨度,即相对于其触发的路径依赖过程而言,关键节点持续的时间相对较短;第三,微小偏差,即关键节点并不等于变化,其也可能导致制度再平衡;第四,权力不对称,即关键节点处的制度选择往往是由拥有权力优势的关键行为者所作出的。其次,由于关键节点持续期间存在结构的流动性和高度的偶然性,反事实分析的方法对于关键节点的研究是重要而恰当的。在关键节点的比较研究上,文章从横向方面分析了不同的空间单元,从纵向方面比较了同一分析单元中的多个关键节点,并从中确定一个具有较强解释力的关键节点。最后,文章以魏玛共和国的垮台和欧盟的宪法化过程为例,详细展现了关键节点分析框架的应用。
[Abstract]:In the study of historical institutionalism, the concept of path dependence has received extensive attention, but the key node, which is the starting point of institutional balance, has been neglected for a long time. The purpose of this paper is to correct this deficiency. First of all, the paper defines "key node" as a relatively short period of time in the time axis, during which the possibility of the actor's choice affecting the final result is greatly increased. This definition involves the following four aspects: first, the unit of analysis, that is, the analysis of key nodes should be limited to a unit of analysis; Second, the time span, that is, relative to the path dependence process triggered by the key node, the duration of the key node is relatively short, third, the small deviation, that is, the key node is not equal to the change, which may lead to institutional rebalancing. Fourthly, power asymmetry, that is, institutional choice at key nodes is often made by key actors with power advantages. Secondly, because of the fluidity of the structure and the high degree of contingency during the duration of the key nodes, the method of counterfactual analysis is important and appropriate for the study of the key nodes. In the comparative study of key nodes, different spatial elements are analyzed from the horizontal aspect, and several key nodes in the same analysis unit are compared from the longitudinal aspect, and a key node with strong explanatory power is determined. Finally, taking the collapse of Weimar Republic and the constitutionalization of the European Union as examples, the application of the key node analysis framework is demonstrated in detail.
【作者单位】：英国牛津大学政治与国际关系系;美国罗格斯大学政治学系;南开大学周恩来政府管理学院;华中师范大学政治学研究院;
【分类号】：D035

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