高校后勤维修备件采购管理方法及系统研究

发布时间：2018-03-11 11:04

本文选题：维修备件　切入点：需求预测　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着社会向"互联网+"方向发展,高校信息化已经成为新形势下高等学校建设的基础工作,而高校后勤信息化则是其重要组成部分。在"互联网+高校后勤"的背景下,将以互联网为主的现代化信息技术引入后勤管理已成为必然趋势,其目的在于实现管理的数字化、网络化和智能化。为师生提供便捷的维修服务是高校后勤的核心工作之一,因此维修备件的采购管理成为该项工作的重点。随着高校的逐年扩招,维修备件的种类和数量大幅增加,给管理带来了新的挑战。目前,高校后勤维修备件的采购管理存在着"缺乏控制重点、缺乏需求预测机制、缺乏有效的采购策略"等诸多问题,并且管理方式较为落后,大多以传统的人工方式为主,虽然部分高校引入了采购管理软件,但功能仅仅是简单的记账和统计,无法为管理者提供决策支持。针对以上问题,本文主要进行了两方面的研究工作:①根据高校后勤维修备件特点,对采购管理方法进行改进:提出了维修备件分类、需求预测、采购策略等模型与算法;②以A高校后勤维修中心为例,在所提模型的基础上,设计并开发了具有优化采购决策功能的维修备件采购管理系统。具体内容如下:(1)采用基于DEA(数据包络分析)的ABC分类方法对维修备件按重要程度进行分类,从而明确库存控制的重点,为采购管理工作奠定基础。(2)针对重要程度较高的A类维修备件提出需求预测方法,包括连续型需求预测和间断型需求预测两种。在连续型需求预测方法中,采用"简单季节性指数平滑模型"、"Holt-Winters相乘性模型"和"自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)"三种模型分别进行预测,最后通过预测精度的对比,选出Holt-Winters相乘性模型为最佳预测模型;在间断型需求预测方法中,本文采用了 Croston方法,并进行了实例分析。(3)提出高校后勤维修备件的采购策略。对于A类备件,采用单品种动态批量采购模型(Wagner-Whitin算法)和多品种动态批量采购模型。对于B、C类备件,采用考虑安全库存的(t,s,Q)采购库存模型。(4)以A高校后勤维修中心为例,设计和开发了高校后勤维修备件采购管理系统,并将备件分类、需求预测、采购库存策略等决策模型运用到系统中,能够科学地预测最优采购批量及采购时间,从而实现了该系统的辅助决策功能。
[Abstract]:With the development of society towards the "Internet", the informationization of colleges and universities has become the basic work of the construction of colleges and universities under the new situation, and the informationization of university logistics is an important part of it. It has become an inevitable trend to introduce modern information technology based on the Internet into logistics management. Its purpose is to realize the digitalization, networking and intelligentization of management, and to provide convenient maintenance services for teachers and students is one of the core tasks of logistics in colleges and universities. Therefore, the purchasing management of maintenance spare parts has become the focus of this work. With the increasing enrollment of colleges and universities year by year, the types and quantity of maintenance spare parts have increased dramatically, which has brought new challenges to the management. There are many problems in the procurement management of spare parts for logistics maintenance in colleges and universities, such as "lack of control focus, lack of demand forecasting mechanism, lack of effective purchasing strategy", and the management mode is relatively backward, most of which are dominated by traditional manual methods. Although some colleges and universities have introduced procurement management software, but the function is only simple accounting and statistics, can not provide decision support for managers. This paper mainly carried out two aspects of research work: 1. According to the characteristics of spare parts for logistics maintenance in colleges and universities, the purchasing management method was improved: the classification of maintenance spare parts, the forecast of demand, Procurement strategy model and algorithm 2 A university logistics maintenance center as an example, on the basis of the proposed model, This paper designs and develops a maintenance spare parts purchasing management system with the function of optimizing purchasing decision. The main contents are as follows: (1) ABC classification method based on DEA-based data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used to classify maintenance spare parts according to their importance. Therefore, the emphasis of inventory control is clarified, and the basis for purchasing management is laid. (2) the forecasting method of demand for class A maintenance spare parts, which is of high importance, is put forward. There are two kinds of continuous demand forecasting and discontinuous demand forecasting. In the continuous demand forecasting method, three kinds of models, namely "simple seasonal exponential smoothing model", "Holt-Winters multiplicative model" and "autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA)", are used to forecast the demand. Finally, the Holt-Winters multiplicative model is selected as the best prediction model by comparing the prediction accuracy. In the discontinuous demand forecasting method, the Croston method is used in this paper. A case study is carried out. (3) the purchasing strategy of spare parts for logistic maintenance in colleges and universities is put forward. For class A spare parts, Wagner-Whitin algorithm and multi-variety dynamic batch purchasing model are used for class A spare parts. This paper introduces the purchasing inventory model of QM) which considers safety inventory. Taking A university logistics maintenance center as an example, the paper designs and develops the purchasing management system of spare parts for university logistics maintenance, and classifies the spare parts and forecasts the demand. The decision model such as purchasing inventory strategy is applied to the system, which can scientifically predict the optimal purchase batch and purchase time, thus realizing the auxiliary decision function of the system.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：G647.4

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