我国高等教育信息化水平测评与发展预测研究
发布时间：2018-07-20 21:34
【摘要】：如何有效对我国高等教育信息化的建设质量进行评估和监测是我国教育信息化整体战略规划中所必须解决的重要问题。一直以来由于缺乏全国教育信息化水平的基础数据和评估方法,严重影响了我国教育信息化发展战略规划的合理性和科学性。由于我国不同地区、不同类型学校的巨大差异,当前我国高等教育信息化的评价体系仍不够完善,高等教育信息化的评价研究缺乏广泛的测评实践。本文依托华中师范大学国家级教育信息化战略研究基地,在基地基础数据库的支撑下,综合运用现代管理学、系统论、信息学、统计学的相关理论和方法,采用理论分析与实证分析相结合,横向比较与纵向差异分析、趋势预测相结合的方法,从不同层面对我国高等教育信息化水平的测评、分析和预测进行了系统研究。本文的主要研究成果包括以下几个方面： (1)构建了经过实证数据验证的我国高等教育信息化水平评估模型。在分析国内外高等教育信息化评估框架、评价指标体系的基础上,以六要素模型为基础构建了我国高等教育信息化整体水平的评价指标体系。采用结构方程模型(SEM)对指标体系进行维度验证、指标筛选和权重计算,确定了适用于实证量化的指标体系。 (2)对我国高等教育信息化整体水平、不同区域不同类型高校的信息化水平进行了测评和比较分析。基于简单线性加权的综合得分分析法测算了我国高等教育信息化整体水平及单个维度水平的得分指数,并进行了排序和聚类分析。从省份、区域、学校类型层面对我国高等教育信息化发展现况及特点进行了总结。研究结果表明对我国高等教育信息化水平影响最大的两个因素是高等教育信息化保障体系和教学科研应用水平,其次为资源建设水平和管理信息化水平。不同区域间高校信息化水平中以东部地区整体水平最高,西部最低。不同类型高校信息化建设中以985/211高校的信息化建设水平最高,专科院校最低。在各维度的建设水平中,985/211高校的教学科研应用水平最高。 (3)定量分析了我国高等教育信息化软硬件资源建设的区域差异。针对我国高等教育信息化水平存在差异、发展不均衡的问题,基于《中国教育统计年鉴》中关于我国高等教育信息化的四个时间序列指标数据,采用极差、极差率、变异系数定量测度我国东中西部地区高等教育信息化软硬件资源建设上的差异,并分析差异的形成机理,给出了相应的政策启示。 (4)提出了我国高等教育信息化发展趋势的组合预测模型。在差异分析的基础上,基于我国高等教育信息化统计数据的特点,采用趋势外推预测法、灰色预测GM(1,1)模型、组合预测模型进一步对我国高等教育信息化软硬件资源建设的四个指标进行预测分析。预测结果表明组合预测模型相对弥补了单一预测方法各自的不足,有效提高了预测精度。 最后根据实证研究结果,采用SWOT1钱略分析矩阵对我国高等教育信息化的未来发展战略进行了分析。
[Abstract]:How to effectively evaluate and monitor the construction quality of China's higher education informatization is an important problem that must be solved in the overall strategic planning of education informatization in China. The lack of basic data and evaluation methods for the level of national education informatization has seriously affected the rationality of the strategic planning of the development of education information in our country. Because of the huge difference between different regions and different types of schools in China, the evaluation system of higher education informationization in China is still not perfect, and the evaluation and research of higher education informatization is lack of extensive evaluation practice. This paper relies on the national education information strategy research base of Huazhong Normal University and bases its base data. Under the support of the library, the relevant theories and methods of modern management, system theory, information science and statistics are combined, the methods of combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis, horizontal comparison with longitudinal difference analysis and trend prediction are combined, and the evaluation, analysis and prediction of the information level of higher education in China are carried out from different levels, and the system is analyzed and predicted. The main research achievements in this paper include the following aspects:
(1) the evaluation model of China's higher education informatization level has been constructed through empirical data verification. On the basis of analyzing the evaluation framework of higher education informatization and evaluation index system, the evaluation index system of the overall level of higher education informatization in China is built on the basis of the six element model. The structure equation model (SEM) is adopted. The index system carries out dimensional verification, index screening and weight calculation, and determines the index system suitable for empirical quantification.
(2) to evaluate and compare the informatization level of higher education in China and different types of colleges and universities in different regions. Based on the simple linear weighted comprehensive score analysis method, the index of the overall level of higher education information and the level of the single dimension of higher education in China is calculated, and the sorting and clustering analysis are carried out. This paper summarizes the current situation and characteristics of the development of higher education informatization in China. The results show that the two factors which have the greatest impact on the level of higher education informationization in China are the information guarantee system of higher education and the application level of teaching and scientific research, followed by the level of resource construction and the level of management information. In the information level of inter regional colleges and universities, the overall level of the eastern region is the highest and the west is the lowest. In the information construction of different types of colleges and universities, the level of information construction of 985/211 colleges and universities is the highest, and the junior colleges are the lowest. In the construction level of each dimension, the level of teaching and scientific research in 985/211 universities is the highest.
(3) quantitative analysis of the regional differences in the construction of software and hardware resources of higher education information in China. In view of the differences in the level of higher education information in China, the problem of uneven development is based on the four time sequence index data of China's higher education information in China's yearbook of education statistics, with the use of extreme, extreme and variation coefficients. To measure the difference between the construction of information resources of higher education in China's eastern, central and western regions, and analyze the formation mechanism of differences, the corresponding policy implications are given.
(4) the combination forecast model of the development trend of higher education information in China is put forward. Based on the difference analysis, based on the characteristics of China's higher education information statistics, the trend extrapolation prediction method, the grey prediction GM (1,1) model, and the combined prediction model are used to further the construction of China's higher education information software and hardware resources. The prediction results show that the combination forecasting model makes up for the shortcomings of the single prediction method, and effectively improves the prediction accuracy.
Finally, according to the results of the empirical study, we use the SWOT1 money analysis matrix to analyze the future development strategy of China's higher education informatization.
【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：G649.2
本文编号：2134852
[Abstract]:How to effectively evaluate and monitor the construction quality of China's higher education informatization is an important problem that must be solved in the overall strategic planning of education informatization in China. The lack of basic data and evaluation methods for the level of national education informatization has seriously affected the rationality of the strategic planning of the development of education information in our country. Because of the huge difference between different regions and different types of schools in China, the evaluation system of higher education informationization in China is still not perfect, and the evaluation and research of higher education informatization is lack of extensive evaluation practice. This paper relies on the national education information strategy research base of Huazhong Normal University and bases its base data. Under the support of the library, the relevant theories and methods of modern management, system theory, information science and statistics are combined, the methods of combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis, horizontal comparison with longitudinal difference analysis and trend prediction are combined, and the evaluation, analysis and prediction of the information level of higher education in China are carried out from different levels, and the system is analyzed and predicted. The main research achievements in this paper include the following aspects:
(1) the evaluation model of China's higher education informatization level has been constructed through empirical data verification. On the basis of analyzing the evaluation framework of higher education informatization and evaluation index system, the evaluation index system of the overall level of higher education informatization in China is built on the basis of the six element model. The structure equation model (SEM) is adopted. The index system carries out dimensional verification, index screening and weight calculation, and determines the index system suitable for empirical quantification.
(2) to evaluate and compare the informatization level of higher education in China and different types of colleges and universities in different regions. Based on the simple linear weighted comprehensive score analysis method, the index of the overall level of higher education information and the level of the single dimension of higher education in China is calculated, and the sorting and clustering analysis are carried out. This paper summarizes the current situation and characteristics of the development of higher education informatization in China. The results show that the two factors which have the greatest impact on the level of higher education informationization in China are the information guarantee system of higher education and the application level of teaching and scientific research, followed by the level of resource construction and the level of management information. In the information level of inter regional colleges and universities, the overall level of the eastern region is the highest and the west is the lowest. In the information construction of different types of colleges and universities, the level of information construction of 985/211 colleges and universities is the highest, and the junior colleges are the lowest. In the construction level of each dimension, the level of teaching and scientific research in 985/211 universities is the highest.
(3) quantitative analysis of the regional differences in the construction of software and hardware resources of higher education information in China. In view of the differences in the level of higher education information in China, the problem of uneven development is based on the four time sequence index data of China's higher education information in China's yearbook of education statistics, with the use of extreme, extreme and variation coefficients. To measure the difference between the construction of information resources of higher education in China's eastern, central and western regions, and analyze the formation mechanism of differences, the corresponding policy implications are given.
(4) the combination forecast model of the development trend of higher education information in China is put forward. Based on the difference analysis, based on the characteristics of China's higher education information statistics, the trend extrapolation prediction method, the grey prediction GM (1,1) model, and the combined prediction model are used to further the construction of China's higher education information software and hardware resources. The prediction results show that the combination forecasting model makes up for the shortcomings of the single prediction method, and effectively improves the prediction accuracy.
Finally, according to the results of the empirical study, we use the SWOT1 money analysis matrix to analyze the future development strategy of China's higher education informatization.
【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：G649.2
【引证文献】
相关期刊论文 前3条
1 谭明刚;;教育信息化的动力与教育改革的关系分析[J];考试周刊;2014年20期
2 张屹;黄欣;周平红;范福兰;蔡园园;;中小学数字化校园管理水平影响因素分析——基于X省16个市区的问卷调查[J];中国电化教育;2013年10期
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相关硕士学位论文 前2条
1 范福兰;湖北省中小学数字化校园应用现状调研与评估[D];华中师范大学;2013年
2 牛龙飞;基于Web的我国教育信息化公共服务平台的设计与实现[D];华中师范大学;2013年
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