人口老龄化对我国城镇职工基本养老保险的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-15 03:18

本文选题：人口老龄化 + 老年抚养比　；参考：《合肥工业大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国人口增长率开始有所下降,老龄人口比重上升速度逐渐加快,人口老龄化的问题日益突出。随着人口老龄化的加速发展,我国的养老问题开始成为各级政府、相关学者和社会大众关注的焦点。本文以人口老龄化对我国城镇职工基本养老保险的影响为研究课题,希望通过对人口老龄化与我国城镇职工基本养老保险的关系研究,揭示两者之间的内在联系,为我国政府部门完善城镇职工基本养老保险制度提供参考。本文首先简要地阐述了研究背景、目的和意义,并对国内外人口老龄化和养老保险的研究现状进行了综述。其次,简单地介绍了人口老龄化和养老保险的相关概念和理论。再次,利用人口发展模型对我国2015-2050年的全国人口进行预测,并在对城市化率假设的基础上,预测了城镇的老年人口、劳动年龄人口和总人口,对我国的老年人口占总人口比重和老年抚养比进行了分析,结果显示：我国城镇的老年抚养比和老年人口占总人口比重的都是不断上升的。第四,运用养老保险基金收支平衡模型,对2015-2050年我国城镇职工基本养老保险的基金收支状况做了预测,结果发现：从2029年开始,我国城镇职工基本养老保险将出现基金缺口；第五,从养老保险基金支出、基金缺口、缴费率、退休年龄等方面分析了人口老龄化对我国城镇职工基本养老保险的影响；最后提出了扩大基本养老保险覆盖面、适当延迟退休年龄和加大财政投入等完善我国现行的城镇职工基本养老保险的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the population growth rate of our country has begun to decline, the proportion of the aged population has increased gradually, and the problem of population aging has become increasingly prominent. With the rapid development of population aging, the pension problem in China has become the focus of attention of governments, scholars and the public at all levels. This paper focuses on the impact of population aging on the basic old-age insurance of urban workers in China, hoping to reveal the internal relationship between the aging of the population and the basic old-age insurance of urban workers in our country through the study of the relationship between the aging of the population and the basic old-age insurance of urban workers in China. For our government departments to improve the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers to provide a reference. In this paper, the background, purpose and significance of the research are briefly described, and the research status of aging population and endowment insurance is summarized. Secondly, the paper briefly introduces the concept and theory of population aging and endowment insurance. Thirdly, using the population development model to forecast the population of China in 2015-2050, and on the basis of the assumption of urbanization rate, the paper forecasts the elderly population, the working-age population and the total population of cities and towns. This paper analyzes the proportion of the aged population to the total population and the old age dependency ratio in China. The results show that the old age dependency ratio and the elderly population proportion in the cities and towns of our country are both increasing. Fourthly, using the balance of income and expenditure model of pension insurance fund, this paper forecasts the fund income and expenditure of basic old-age insurance for urban workers in 2015-2050. The results show that: from 2029 onwards, there will be fund gap in basic old-age insurance for urban workers in China; Fifthly, from the aspects of pension fund expenditure, fund gap, contribution rate, retirement age and so on, this paper analyzes the impact of population aging on basic old-age insurance for urban workers in China, and finally proposes to expand the coverage of basic old-age insurance. Some policy suggestions such as delaying retirement age and increasing financial input are put forward to perfect the current basic old-age insurance for urban workers in China.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：C924.2;F842.67

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