新农保制度的可持续性探讨——基于农民参保行为选择的视角

发布时间：2018-05-16 23:05

本文选题：新农保 + 农民　；参考：《中国农村观察》2013年06期

【摘要】：本文基于对江西省赣州市、四川省宜宾市、湖北省随州市和山东省德州市样本农民的问卷调查,从农民参保行为选择的视角出发探讨了中国新农保制度的可持续性,并通过建立Logistic回归模型对影响农民参保行为选择的因素进行了实证分析。总体来看,随着时间的推移,农民参保行为发生的概率呈上升的趋势。具体来看,在新农保启动阶段,农民选择参保时不仅会考虑新农保的养老保障能力及净收益状况,而且受到外部宣传动员的重要影响,宣传动员力度的增强可以大幅度提高农民参保行为的发生比。当新农保转入常规发展阶段后,农民对新农保的了解逐渐增加,经验积累逐渐丰富,外部宣传动员对农民参保的影响减弱,农民在更大程度上会根据他们对新农保净收益状况的判断来修正预期,他们参保行为发生的概率呈缓慢上升的态势。因此,基于农民的理性判断并考虑到新农保的制度设计,农民参保行为发生的概率将长时间在高位保持稳步增长,从而保证新农保制度的可持续性。
[Abstract]:Based on the questionnaire survey of sample farmers in Ganzhou City, Sichuan Province, Suizhou City, Hubei Province and Dezhou City, Shandong Province, this paper discusses the sustainability of China's new rural insurance system from the perspective of farmers' participation behavior selection. Logistic regression model is established to analyze the factors that affect farmers' behavior of participating in insurance. Overall, with the passage of time, the probability of farmers participating in the insurance behavior increased. Specifically, in the start-up stage of the new rural insurance, farmers will not only consider the pension security ability and net income of the new rural insurance, but also be influenced by the external publicity and mobilization. The increase of propaganda and mobilization can greatly improve the occurrence ratio of farmers' participation in insurance. When the new rural insurance is transferred to the normal stage of development, the farmers' understanding of the new rural insurance is gradually increased, the accumulation of experience is gradually enriched, and the influence of external propaganda mobilization on farmers' participation in the insurance is weakened. To a greater extent, farmers will revise their expectations according to their judgment on the net income of new rural insurance, and the probability of their participation in the insurance will increase slowly. Therefore, based on the rational judgment of farmers and considering the system design of new rural insurance, the probability of farmers participating in the insurance will increase steadily for a long time, so as to ensure the sustainability of the new rural insurance system.
【作者单位】：华中农业大学社会学系;华中农业大学农村社会建设与管理研究中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目“我国农村社会养老保障问题调查研究”(项目编号:10ASH007) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“中部地区农村社会管理问题研究”(项目编号:2012RW003) 北京郑杭生社会发展基金会·杭州国际城市学研究中心学子项目“快速城市化过程中城乡养老保险一体化研究”(项目编号:13ZHFD06)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F842.6;F224

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