我国医保体系债务风险规模评估与政策启示

发布时间：2019-01-08 20:01

【摘要】：随着人口快速老化、医疗费用不断膨胀,医保基金债务风险加剧,迫切需要客观评估、预测医保债务规模,为医保政策创新奠定基础。利用人口统计、保险精算等方法,基于六普等宏微观数据,对中国医保系统的隐性负债、基金债务及可能的财政压力进行评估和预测。结果显示,在代表性方案预测结果中,医保基金隐性负债规模约为85.52万亿,基金债务规模约为184.15万亿;潜在财政压力高达228.99万亿,财政负担占GDP和财政支出比例先降后升,总体呈上升趋势,在2110年将分别达到约1.40%、4.66%;我国医保体系改革的最佳时间窗口是2015-2025年。我国医保体系债务规模巨大,潜在财政风险严峻,迫切需要推进医保制度及相关制度变革,尽早应对医保体系债务风险、提升基金可持续性。
[Abstract]:With the rapid aging of population, medical expenses are expanding, and the risk of health insurance fund debt is increasing, it is urgent to evaluate objectively and predict the scale of medical insurance debt, so as to lay the foundation for the innovation of medical insurance policy. Based on the macro and micro data of Liu Pu, this paper evaluates and forecasts the hidden liabilities, fund debts and possible financial pressures of China's health insurance system by means of demographics and actuarial methods. The results show that the scale of hidden liabilities of health insurance fund is about 85.52 trillion and the scale of fund debt is about 184.15 trillion in the forecast result of representative scheme. The potential financial pressure is as high as 228.99 trillion, the ratio of fiscal burden to GDP and fiscal expenditure decreases first and then increases, and the overall trend is upward, which will reach about 1.40 and 4.66 respectively in 2110 years; The best time window for the reform of China's health care system is 2015-2025. Our country health insurance system debt scale is huge, the potential financial risk is severe, urgent need to push forward the medical insurance system and the related system reform, as soon as possible to deal with the health insurance system debt risk, enhance the fund sustainability.
【作者单位】：华北电力大学人文与社会科学学院;华北电力大学人文与社会科学学院教研室;美国新泽西州立大学华民中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“医疗保险体系隐性负债、基金负债与财政压力评估”(编号:11CGL072) 北京市社科基金项目“老年人长期护理服务需求评估与护理保险设计”(编号:13SHB009) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助重点项目“老年护理保险成本动态测算与财政压力评估”(编号:2014ZD47)
【分类号】：R197.1;F842.684

【相似文献】