我国人口老龄化影响产业结构升级的计量研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 07:55

本文选题：人口老龄化　切入点：产业结构升级　出处：《江西财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济社会不断发展,养老服务体系不断完善、医疗卫生服务不断改善、居民生活水平不断提高等诸多因素的影响,使得人口年龄结构发生显著的变化,老年人口比重不断上升,对就业结构、产业结构产生显著的影响。我国在过去的十年内,人口与老年人口增长的比例分别为4.61%、36.80%,表明我国人口老龄化在不断地加剧;此外,人口老龄化加剧程度在全国分布存在着显著的区域差异性:东部地区的老龄化程度显著高于中、西部地区。2013年,我国产业结构从过去的“二、三、一”格局逐步调整为现在的“三、二、一”格局,并且第三产业增加值比重存在着显著的地区差异:东部地区高于中部地区,中部地区高于西部地区,沿海地区高于内陆地区。为此,本文对我国人口老龄化影响产业结构升级的进行深入的理论与计量研究,得出以下结论。在人口老龄化对产业结构升级的影响机制的研究结果中,我们发现人口老龄化从供给与需求两个方面来影响产业结构。进一步,运用索洛经济增长模型推导中,我们认为人口老龄化影响产业结构升级的机制为:人口老龄化↑→储蓄率↓→人均储蓄↓→资本深化↓→产业结构升级↓。Johansen协整检验结果证实了上述推导的传导机制的显著性与传导方向的准确性;格兰杰因果检验结果证实了人口老龄化对预测储蓄率有帮助,储蓄率对预测资本深化有帮助,资本深化对产业结构升级预测有帮助;从而也说明了关于索洛经济增长模型推导的传导机制的可靠性。在数理推导与检验的基础上,选取2003~2014年我国省际面板数据对人口老龄化影响产业结构升级的计量研究,结果表明人口老龄化对产业结构升级的影响系数-0.229,并且通过了5%的置信水平,表明在不考虑其他因素影响的情况下,人口老龄化每加剧1%,产业结构升级将会降低0.229%,表明人口老龄化对产业结构升级具有显著的负面影响。外商直接投资对产业结构升级的非线性影响,表现为“倒U”型关系;政策制度对技术进步与产业结构升级的关系产生显著的调节效应。此外,人口老龄化对产业结构升级的影响也存在区域差异性,主要表现为东部地区人口老龄化对产业结构升级具有正向的推动作用;在中、西部地区,人口老龄化将抑制中西部地区的产业结构升级,并且老龄化对中部地区的产业结构升级抑制效果更高。最后,结合计量研究结果,提出相对应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the economic and social development of our country, the continuous improvement of the old-age service system, the continuous improvement of the medical and health services, and the continuous improvement of the living standards of the residents, the age structure of the population has undergone significant changes. The proportion of the elderly population is rising, which has a significant impact on the employment structure and the industrial structure. In the past ten years, the proportion of population to the elderly population growth in our country has been 4.61% or 36.80 respectively, which indicates that the aging of the population in our country is constantly increasing; in addition, There are significant regional differences in the aggravation of population aging in the whole country: the aging degree in the eastern region is significantly higher than that in the central and western regions. In 2013, the industrial structure of our country changed from the past "two, three, three," The first "pattern" has been gradually adjusted to the present "three, two, one" pattern, and there are significant regional differences in the proportion of the added value of the tertiary industry: the eastern region is higher than the central region, and the central region is higher than the western region. The coastal areas are higher than the inland areas. Therefore, this paper makes a deep theoretical and quantitative study on the impact of aging population on the upgrading of industrial structure in China. The following conclusions are drawn. In the results of the research on the influence mechanism of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure, we find that population aging affects the industrial structure from the two aspects of supply and demand. Further, in the derivation of Solow's economic growth model, In our opinion, the mechanism of the aging of the population affecting the upgrading of the industrial structure is: the aging of the population. 鈫戔啋Savings rate. 鈫撯啋Per capita savings. 鈫撯啋Capital deepening. 鈫撯啋Industrial structure upgrading. 鈫揟he results of the Johansen cointegration test confirm the significance of the conduction mechanism and the accuracy of the transmission direction, and the Granger causality test confirms that the aging population is helpful in predicting the savings rate, and that the savings rate is helpful to the deepening of the projected capital. Capital deepening is helpful to forecast the upgrading of industrial structure, which also explains the reliability of transmission mechanism derived from Solow's economic growth model. The econometric study on the impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrading by interprovincial panel data from 2003 to 2014 in China is carried out. The results show that the impact coefficient of population aging on industrial structure upgrading is -0.229, and the confidence level of 5% is passed. Without taking into account other factors, For each aggravation of population aging, the upgrading of industrial structure will be reduced by 0.229, which indicates that the aging of the population has a significant negative impact on the upgrading of industrial structure. The nonlinear effect of foreign direct investment on the upgrading of industrial structure is characterized by "inverted U" type relationship. The policy system has a significant regulatory effect on the relationship between technological progress and industrial structure upgrading. In addition, there are regional differences in the impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrading. In the central and western regions, the aging of the population will restrain the upgrading of the industrial structure in the central and western regions. And aging is more effective to restrain the industrial structure upgrading in the central region. Finally, combined with the results of econometric research, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.24;F124

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