我国进口贸易的产业结构升级效应及其机制研究——基于“一带一路”沿线国家的实证检验

发布时间：2018-03-14 10:27

本文选题：“一带一路”　切入点：进口贸易　出处：《吉林大学社会科学学报》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在分析进口贸易影响产业结构升级的作用机制基础上,采用时变参数状态空间模型和中介效应检验,实证分析与"一带一路"沿线国家的进口贸易对我国产业间和产业内结构优化升级的动态影响及其机理。实证研究表明:与沿线国家的进口贸易有利于我国产业间结构升级和制造业内部结构优化,对产业间结构的影响经历了先下降后上升再平稳的过程,与欧洲、蒙俄和东南亚地区进口贸易的影响更大;对制造业内部结构优化的动态影响波动较小,与欧洲和东南亚进口贸易的促进作用较大。进口贸易的正向影响存在显著的中介效应,通过物质资本、人力资本和技术进步的中介效应作用于产业间结构升级;通过人力资本、技术进步影响制造业内部结构优化,但对第三产业内部转型升级产生了消极影响,尤其是与欧洲和东南亚的进口贸易。
[Abstract]:In the analysis of the import trade of the industrial structure upgrade mechanism based on the time-varying parameter state space model and test the mediating effect, empirical analysis and The Belt and Road along the country's import trade on China's inter industry and intra industry structure optimization and upgrading of dynamic effect and its mechanism. The empirical research shows that: in favor of China industry structure upgrade and optimization of the internal structure and the manufacturing industry along the country's import and export trade, the impact of industrial structure has experienced a steady rise, then decreased with Europe, the impact of import trade in Mongolia and Russia and Southeast Asia more; to optimize the internal structure of the manufacturing industry dynamic fluctuations smaller, larger effect with the promotion of Europe and Southeast Asia imports. Positive effects of import trade has a significant mediating effect, by physical capital, human capital and technology progress in the mediation effect The upgrading of industrial structure affects the internal structure optimization of manufacturing industry through human capital and technological progress, but it has a negative impact on the transformation and upgrading of the third industry, especially the import trade with Europe and Southeast Asia.

【作者单位】：西南财经大学经济学院;西南财经大学中国西部经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(14XJL012) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(JBK120506,JBK150938)
【分类号】：F121.3;F752.61

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