基于系统动力学的循环经济产业链仿真模拟探索

发布时间：2018-03-14 11:37

本文选题：可持续发展　切入点：循环经济产业链　出处：《兰州大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着人类社会的整体发展,全球人口总量激增,整体生活品质也随之提升,由此,人类对生存空间、发展资源提出越来越多的需求。但是,有限的空间、资源,与无限的“原材料一产品——废弃物”线性经济发展模式存在着显著的矛盾,所以,急需改变传统的“三高一低”的粗放式经济发展模式,通过构建可持续发展战略,合理化开发利用有限的自然资源,在确保经济发展势头的同时,避免对整个地球生态系统造成不可逆转的破坏。本文主要依据可持续发展理念、循环经济理念、循环经济产业链相关理论及系统动力学基本理论,借鉴国内外相关领域构建系统动力学模型的实践经验,在系统分析成熟工业体系实情的基础上,以Vensim PLE软件为核心构建基于系统动力学的循环经济产业链模型进行模拟分析。本文主要研究目的包括：通过构建关联性系统动力学模型,以加强对影响循环经济产业链节点的各个因素重要性及其相互间关系的理解；通过调整模型内含公式、参数,进行对比分析研究,初步量化分析构建循环经济产业链前后产业链节点效益的差别；辅助理解企业主动承担相应的社会责任,构建循环经济产业链处理传统废弃物,有助于其树立更为积极的企业形象、提升自身的软实力,并能转化直接、间接的为经济效益；在此基础上,进一步研究新建工业园区的基本状况,以其核心循环经济产业链为研究对象,模拟其近期及远期的实际运行状况,探究其各级节点的发展关联性,为工业园区拟定发展战略提供参考意见。本文以甘肃省酒钢集团成熟工业体系为例,通过Vensim PLE软件建模并仿真模拟,对比分析可知：预计未来五年酒钢集团铁、钢坯产量的五年总增长幅度为9.13%,6.60%,分别低于改造后铁、钢坯产量的未来五年总增长幅度的19.16%,10.41%;循环经济产业链前后尾矿废石五年总增长幅度分别为1.83,1.28。在此基础上,以内蒙古新建的MS工业园区整体循环经济产业链为例,通过VensimPLE软件建模并模拟,分析其产业链的节点发展联动效益,以说明构建循环经济产业链对产业集群的影响,并预测其发展趋势,为其进一步发展提供参考意见。
[Abstract]:With the overall development of human society, the global population increase, the overall quality of life are increasing, thus, human living space, the development of resources put forward more and more requirements. However, the limited space, resources, economy and development model of linear infinite "raw materials products - waste" significant contradiction. So, it needs to change the traditional "three high and one low" extensive mode of economic development, through the construction of the strategy of sustainable development, rational development and utilization of limited natural resources, in order to ensure the momentum of economic development at the same time, avoid to cause irreversible damage to the earth's ecological system. This paper mainly focuses on the concept of sustainable development, the concept of circular economy, circulation economy industrial chain theory and system dynamics theory, drawing on relevant areas at home and abroad to build a system dynamics model of the practical experience in the system Based on the mature industrial system of truth, with Vensim PLE software as the core of the simulation analysis of the circular economy industrial chain model based on system dynamics. The purpose of this research mainly includes: through the construction of related system dynamics model, in order to strengthen the effect of various factors on the importance of circular economy industry chain nodes and the relationship between the understanding; the adjustment of model parameters, including the formula, makes a comparative analysis on the difference between construction node benefit of the industrial chain and industrial chain of circular economy analysis preliminary quantization; auxiliary to understand the enterprise bear the social responsibility initiative, building a circular economy industrial chain of traditional processing waste, help to establish a more positive corporate image, enhance its soft power, and can be transformed directly, indirect economic benefit; on this basis, the further research of new industrial park shaped base In the condition, the core of circular economy industrial chain as the research object, the actual operation situation of simulation of the short-term and long-term development, to explore the relevance of various nodes, which provides a reference for the industrial park development strategy. This paper takes Gansu province Jiuquan Steel Group mature industrial system as an example, through the Vensim PLE software modeling and simulation. The contrast analysis shows that: the next five years is expected to Jiuquan Steel Group iron, billet yield of five of total annual growth rate of 9.13%, 6.60%, respectively, lower than the transformation of iron, billet yield in the next five years the total growth rate of 19.16%, 10.41%; circulation economy industrial chain ring before and after five years the growth rate of total tailings and waste rocks respectively on the basis of 1.83,1.28. on the circular economy industrial chain overall new Inner Mongolia MS Industrial Park as an example, through the VensimPLE software modeling and simulation, node linkage development benefit analysis of the industrial chain, to illustrate the construction cycle The impact of the economic industrial chain on industrial clusters, and forecast its development trend, provide reference for its further development.

【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.31;TP391.9

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