我国产业结构变迁与经济增长的动力——基于多部门模型的反事实分析

发布时间：2018-04-02 21:15

本文选题：产业结构变迁　切入点：经济增长　出处：《华中师范大学学报(人文社会科学版)》2017年02期

【摘要】：本文构建了一个包含农业部门、非农业部门和政府部门的多部门模型,通过反事实分析考察了我国产业结构变迁和经济增长的动力。量化分析的结果表明,农业部门全要素生产率上升是我国产业结构变迁的重要原因,非农业部门全要素生产率上升、资本深化和财政支出扩张对我国产业结构变迁的贡献力度较小。内生性偏好变化等需求侧因素以及市场化改革推动的劳动力市场扭曲下降对我国产业结构变迁的作用不容忽视。全要素生产率上升、资本深化和财政支出扩张都是我国经济增长的重要原因。农业部门全要素生产率上升和非农业部门资本深化是1978—1994年我国经济增长的最主要原因;非农业部门资本深化和非农业部门全要素生产率提高是1995—2012年我国经济增长的最主要原因。通过分区间的对比研究发现,资本深化对我国经济增长的贡献度在上升,全要素生产率对我国经济增长的贡献度在下降。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a multi-sector model including agricultural, non-agricultural and government departments is constructed, and the power of industrial structure change and economic growth in China is investigated by counterfactual analysis.The results of quantitative analysis show that the increase of total factor productivity in agricultural sector is an important reason for the change of industrial structure in China, and the total factor productivity of non-agricultural sector is rising.The contribution of capital deepening and fiscal expenditure expansion to the change of industrial structure in China is relatively small.The demand-side factors such as the change of endogenous preference and the decline of labor market distortion promoted by market-oriented reform can not be ignored.The increase of total factor productivity, the deepening of capital and the expansion of fiscal expenditure are the important reasons for China's economic growth.The increase of agricultural sector total factor productivity and the deepening of capital in non-agricultural sector are the main reasons for China's economic growth from 1978 to 1994.The capital deepening of non-agricultural sector and the increase of total factor productivity in non-agricultural sector are the main reasons for China's economic growth from 1995 to 2012.It is found that the contribution of capital deepening to China's economic growth is increasing and the contribution of total factor productivity to China's economic growth is decreasing.
【作者单位】：中央财经大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F121.3;F124.1

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