中国经济增长与三个产业能源消耗的结构调整

发布时间：2018-04-08 21:01

  本文选题：经济增长　切入点：能源利用　出处：《科研管理》2017年01期

【摘要】：基于VEC模型,通过单位根检验、协整检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析,利用中国1985-2011年三个产业能源利用与经济增长相关数据,对经济增长和三个产业能源利用的长期均衡及动态关系进行了实证分析。结果发现经济增长是推动能源消费的主要动因;第一、二产业能耗应该继续适度的增长;第三产业能耗对经济增长具有长期协整作用,是未来中国经济增长的主要推动力。此外,本文还从能源投入结构、三个产业能源投入情况以及应对反弹效应的负面影响等方面提出了建议。
[Abstract]:Based on VEC model, through unit root test, cointegration test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis, the data related to energy utilization and economic growth of three industries in China from 1985 to 2011 are used.The long-term equilibrium and dynamic relationship between economic growth and energy utilization of three industries are analyzed empirically.The results show that economic growth is the main driving force to promote energy consumption; first, energy consumption of the second industry should continue to increase moderately; energy consumption of the tertiary industry has a long-term cointegration effect on economic growth and is the main driving force of future economic growth in China.In addition, the paper also puts forward some suggestions from the aspects of energy input structure, energy input situation of three industries and the negative impact of rebound effect.
【作者单位】： 四川大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“低碳经济背景下我国能效标识制度的发展和优化”(编号:13BJY066,2013.07.01-2016.12.31)
【分类号】：F124
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本文编号：1723321