甘肃产业溢出效应研究

发布时间：2018-08-03 07:06

【摘要】：为了避免中等收入陷阱,增加经济增长动力,在劳动力红利逐步减少和紧束的资源条件下,产业结构的优化升级成为经济新的发展方式。其中产业溢出一定程度上提高了区域的产业高级化水平。溢出来源于西方经济学的外部性概念,正的溢出能够降低生产成本,实现规模经济。区域在空间上的聚集产生马歇尔外部性,提高区域发展的总体效益水平。其中产业溢出是主要通过溢出方和受溢方发生作用,两个地区之间产业相似度程度越高,区域产业的溢出效果越强,一个地区财政和税收政策、工业园区的建立均能对产业的空间溢出产生推动作用。本文正在产业溢出探讨的基础上,首先分析了甘肃产业目前所处现状,第一产业拉动力比较平稳且作用较小,第二产业对经济的拉动力依然比较强劲,第三产业也保持在一个中度的水平,相比较全国而言,一、二、三产业的拉动力低于全国水平。各个产业部门中,能源和金属加工制造业仍然是甘肃经济发展的主导和支柱产业,这就为甘肃产业优化调整提供了机遇和挑战,机遇是甘肃仍有很大的空间进行产业结构优化调整,挑战是受到发展路径和利益集团的影响,光靠市场解决资源配置是行不通的。本文运用了向量自回归模型分别分析了经济发展和产业结构之间的作用和影响关系,经济发展是促进产业结构高级化的格兰杰原因,但是产业结构调整对经济发展效果不显著,脉冲响应函数表明当产业结构和经济增速波动时,会对对方产生正的影响。甘肃目前经济发展水平较快,第三产业比重也有一定程度上的提高,但是对经济发展的拉动力依然低于工业,服务业发展只有量的提升,没有质的提高。在空间分布上产业结构极其不均衡,产业结构高级化程度比较高的地区主要集中在甘肃的东南地区,河西地区产业的空间效果不显著。在产业溢出的程度和方向上,本文采用空间计量模型进行实证分析得出,产业高级化水平在空间溢出是负的,县域产业之间并没有形成正的溢出循环,一方面是学习效应和单纯的经济增长指标阻碍了产业结构的优化调整,市场在产业之间的资源配置中起到的作用不明显,需要政府宏观的大力调控,其中财政扶持能够推动产业结构的高级化水平。进一步推进产业的空间溢出水平,推动产业高级化进程,以结构促发展。
[Abstract]:In order to avoid the trap of middle income and increase the motive force of economic growth, the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure has become a new mode of economic development under the condition of gradually decreasing the dividend of labor force and tightening the resources. Industrial spillover to a certain extent improves the level of industrial upgrading in the region. Spillover comes from the concept of externality in western economics. Positive spillover can reduce production cost and realize economies of scale. The regional accumulation in space produces Marshall externality and improves the overall benefit level of regional development. The industrial spillover is mainly through the spillover and the overflowing party. The higher the degree of industrial similarity between the two regions, the stronger the spillover effect of the regional industry, and the financial and tax policies of a region. The establishment of industrial parks can promote the spatial spillover of industries. Based on the discussion of industrial spillover, this paper first analyzes the current situation of Gansu industry. The first industry pull power is relatively stable and small, the second industry is still relatively strong to the economy. The tertiary industry also remained at a moderate level, compared with the national level, the first, second and third industries pull power lower than the national level. Among the various industrial sectors, the energy and metal processing manufacturing industries are still the leading and pillar industries in Gansu's economic development, which provides opportunities and challenges for the optimization and adjustment of Gansu's industries. The opportunity is that Gansu still has a lot of room to optimize and adjust the industrial structure. The challenge is affected by the development path and interest groups, so it is not feasible to rely on the market to solve the problem of resource allocation. This paper uses the vector autoregressive model to analyze the relationship between economic development and industrial structure respectively. Economic development is the Granger reason to promote the industrial structure, but the adjustment of industrial structure has no significant effect on economic development. The impulse response function shows that when the industrial structure and the economic growth rate fluctuate, it will have a positive impact on the other side. At present, the economic development level of Gansu is relatively fast, and the proportion of the tertiary industry has also been raised to a certain extent, but the pulling power to the economic development is still lower than that of the industry, and the development of the service industry only increases in quantity, but not in the quality. The industrial structure is extremely unbalanced in spatial distribution. The higher degree of industrial structure is mainly concentrated in the southeast of Gansu province, but the spatial effect of industry in Hexi region is not significant. In terms of the degree and direction of industrial spillover, this paper uses the spatial econometric model to make empirical analysis. It is concluded that the level of industrial upgrading is negative in spatial spillover, and there is no positive spillover cycle between county industries. On the one hand, the learning effect and the simple economic growth index hinder the optimization and adjustment of the industrial structure. The role of the market in the allocation of resources between industries is not obvious, so the government needs to exert great efforts to regulate and control the industry macroscopically. Among them, financial support can promote the advanced level of industrial structure. Further promote the level of industrial spatial spillover, promote the process of industrial upgrading, and promote the development of the structure.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F127

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