中国对外直接投资决定因素与战略研究

发布时间：2018-01-01 20:44

本文关键词：中国对外直接投资决定因素与战略研究　出处：《南开大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：对外直接投资(Outward Foreign Direct Investment, OFDI)曾经是发达国家所特有的经济现象。由于受到国内经济基础较为薄弱的制约,发展中国家对外直接投资活动非常有限。据2004年世界投资报告(World Investment Report2004)统计,上世纪80年代,全球范围内有超过90%的对外直接投资都来源于发达国家。但是,近十年来,新兴市场国家和发展中国家的对外直接投资迅猛增长,成为世界经济发展的主要驱动力。而有关发展中国家对外投资的决定因素及其理论和实证研究相对较少,加之发展中国家的OFDI又表现出不同国家在不同时期的投资决策呈现不同变化的特点,因此,对发展中国家对外直接投资问题的研究具有重要的理论和实践意义。自1978年改革开放以来,中国通过以市场经济为导向,大力发展对外经贸往来,经济发展在取得令人瞩目成就的同时也逐步融入到世界经济之中。2000年10月党的十五届五中全会上正式明确“走出去”战略,中国对外直接投资增长迅速,并呈现投资规模的扩大和区位选择多样的特点。尽管如此,作为发展中国家,中国的对外直接投资起步较晚,无论占国际直接投资还是国内经济总量的比重相对很小。据联合国贸易发展会议资料显示,2012年中国对外直接投资占中国国际投资比重约18.89%,占GDP比重为92.20%,同发达国家相比,尚存在较大差距(仅2011年对外直接投资占GDP比重在美国、新加坡、日本和韩国分别为262.58%、991.26%、195.79%和182.45%)。因此,在看到中国对外直接投资蓬勃发展的同时,应理性地认识到与经济发达国家相比尚存在巨大的差距。为了缩小这种差距,需要深入了解中国对外投资方向、模式和决定因素等问题,从而在宏观层面为政府制定合理的对外直接政策,鼓励、指导企业开展对外直接投资；在微观层面为企业洞悉并合理规避投资风险,全面提升自身竞争能力,进而开展科学的对外直接投资提供理论和政策支持。本文在梳理有关对外直接投资理论研究的基础上,结合中国对外直接投资实践,构建以中国为代表的发展中国家的对外直接投资理论分析框架,全面、系统地分析中国对外直接投资特色和中国对外直接投资的发展阶段,分别从东道国和母国视角分析影响中国对外直接投资的动因、决定因素并开展实证检验,最后为我国对外直接投资进入模式的战略选择提供政策建议。本文分成五个部分：第一部分：在对有关经典国际直接投资理论文献进行总结和评价、对发展中国家对外直接投资理论文献进行梳理的基础上,重点分析现有投资理论中有关对外直接投资决定因素的研究及其对发展中国家适用的局限性。第二部分,对中国对外直接投资发展阶段及其特性展开分析。首先,依据投资发展周期理论,对中国对外直接投资发展阶段进行实证检验,根据实证结果说明中国对外直接投资的发展轨迹符合投资发展周期理论中所假设的“U”曲线分布,并判断中国目前正处于投资发展周期的第三阶段中期。并进一步说明中国对外直接投资特质,指出中国对外直接投资与发达国家、新兴工业化国家以及其他发展中国家的不同及其自身特性。在此基础上,本文通过回顾和总结中国对外直接投资发展历程,明确中国对外直接投资发展不同阶段划分及发展特征。第三部分,在分析中国对外直接投资特色的基础上,重点从东道国和母国角度分析,构建两个角度的理论框架。之所以这样划分,是由于当中国向不同的投资区域开展对外直接投资时,可能遭遇不同类型的政治或者商业风险,并从宏观和微观两个层面展开。在宏观层面,主要表现企业在寻求诤利润最大化过程中将涉及四方面的制约,他们分别是来自市场交易环节的产品单价(P)和销售数量(Q)和来自生产过程的成本(C)和税金(T)。在微观层面,以企业为主体基于企业异质性理论构建对外直接投资中有关企业决定因素的理论模型。第四部分,分别从东道国和母国两个视角对第三部分的理论框架进行实证检验。其中东道国角度利用与中国存在直接投资关系的73个东道国跨国数据进行计量回归,样本覆盖率达到74.9%。母国角度从宏观和微观两个层面开展实证研究。宏观层面利用中国宏观数据,微观层面则使用企业数据对中国对外直接投资影响决定因素展开实证分析。第五部分,分析中国对外直接投资的进入模式。在前文对中国对外直接投资决定因素分析的基础上,对中国对外直接投资类型进行分类,有针对性地分析针对不同经济发展水平的东道国,企业所采取的对外直接投资进入模式。文章创新之处主要体现在：首先,分析了中国OFDI有别于传统FDI理论分析中的特殊性质,在此基础上,从宏观和微观两个层面构建中国对外直接投资理论分析框架,并分别进行实证检验。其次,结合中国对外直接投资实践,分别从东道国和母国角度对OFDI决定因素展开分析。最后,在有关中国对外直接投资决定因素的分析中,基于中国微观企业的样本进行实证检验,系统研究企业异质性与企业对外直接投资决策之间可能存在内在关系,使得文章的研究结论更富有微观基础。图14幅,表41个,参考文献163篇。
[Abstract]:Foreign direct investment (Outward Foreign Direct Investment, OFDI) was a peculiar economic phenomenon in developed countries. Due to the restriction of domestic economic base is relatively weak, the activities of foreign direct investment in developing countries is very limited. According to the World Investment Report 2004 (World Investment Report2004) statistics, in 80s, global foreign direct investment more than 90% are derived from the developed countries. However, in the past ten years, the rapid growth of foreign direct investment in emerging markets and developing countries, become the main driving force of world economic development. And the determinants of foreign investment in developing countries and the theoretical and empirical research is relatively small, and the OFDI shows the characteristics of developing countries, different countries have different the change in different period of investment decision-making so that the issue of foreign direct investment in developing countries The research has important theoretical and practical significance.
Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China through market oriented economy, vigorously develop foreign trade, economic development has made remarkable achievements but also gradually into the world economy in October.2000 the fifth Plenary Session of the 15th CPC Central Committee the party officially clear the "going out" strategy, Chinese rapid growth of foreign direct investment, and expand the scale of investment and the location choice of diverse characteristics. However, as a developing country, Chinese foreign direct investment started late, relatively small regardless of international direct investment accounted for the proportion of total or domestic economy. According to the data of the United Nations Conference on Trade and development, 2012 Chinese foreign direct investment China international investment accounted for the proportion of about 18.89%, accounting for 92.20% of GDP, compared with with the developed countries, there are still large gaps (only in 2011 foreign direct investment accounted for the proportion of GDP in the United States, Singapore, Japan And South Korea were 262.58%, 991.26%, 195.79% and 182.45%). Therefore, in Chinese see foreign direct investment growth and development, should be rationally realized compared with the developed countries there is still a huge gap. In order to narrow the gap, need a deeper understanding of China direction of foreign investment, the problem patterns and determinants, resulting in the macro level for the government to formulate policies to encourage foreign direct, reasonable, guide enterprises to carry out foreign direct investment; at the micro level for business insight and avoid investment risks reasonably, to enhance their competitive ability, provide theoretical and policy support of foreign direct investment and development of science.
Combing the basic theory research on foreign direct investment, foreign direct investment China combined with practice, to construct China as the representative of the developing countries' foreign direct investment theory analysis framework, a comprehensive, systematic analysis of Chinese foreign direct investment and direct investment to the outside China characteristics of the development stage, respectively China analysis on the influence factors of foreign direct investment from the perspective of the host country and home country, decisive factors and carry out empirical test, finally provide policy suggestions for the strategic choice of China's foreign direct investment entry mode. This paper is divided into five parts:
The first part: the summary and evaluation of the classical theory of international direct investment literature, combing the literature based on the theory of foreign direct investment in the developing countries, the key factors of research and development China limitations applicable. The foreign direct investment decision of existing investment theory
The second part analyzes the development stage of Chinese foreign direct investment and its characteristics. Firstly, on the basis of the investment development cycle theory, an empirical test of the development stage Chinese foreign direct investment, according to the empirical results show that China foreign direct investment development path in line with the investment development cycle theory that the "U" curve, and determine third China is currently in the stage of the investment development cycle of the medium-term. And further China foreign direct investment characteristics, pointed out that China foreign direct investment with the developed countries, newly industrialized countries and other developing countries and their different characteristics. On this basis, this article reviews and summarizes the history of China foreign direct investment, foreign direct investment in the development of clear China the development and characteristics of different stages.
The third part, based on the analysis of China foreign direct investment characteristics, focus on the analysis of the host country and home country perspective, the construction of theoretical framework of two aspects. The reason for this is because when the Chinese division, to carry out foreign direct investment to invest in different areas, subject to political or commercial risks of different types, and from two the macro and micro levels. At the macro level, the main performance maximization process will involve four factors in seeking for profit, they are from market transactions (P) product price and sales volume (Q) and from the production process cost (C) and taxes (T). At the micro level, enterprises as the main body to construct a theoretical model of determinants of the relevant enterprises in foreign direct investment based on the theory of firm heterogeneity.
The fourth part, we made an empirical test from two perspectives of the host country and home country the theoretical framework of the third part. The host using direct investment relationship with the existing Chinese 73 host country data regression, the sample coverage rate reached 74.9%. the country to carry out empirical research from two angles of macro and micro level. The macro level by Chinese macro the micro level data, using empirical analysis on enterprise data Chinese the impact of foreign direct investment decision factors.
The fifth part, analysis Chinese entry mode of foreign direct investment. Based on the above analysis of determinants of foreign direct investment China on the classification of Chinese foreign direct investment, to analyze the different level of economic development of the host country, foreign direct investment enterprises have taken the entry mode.
The main innovation lies in: first, analysis of the Chinese OFDI with special properties different from the traditional FDI theory analysis, based on the construction of China foreign direct investment theory analysis framework from two macro and micro level, and the empirical test. Secondly, combined China foreign direct investment practice, separately from the host country home and perspective on the determinants of OFDI are analyzed. Finally, on the basis of analysis of China foreign direct investment decision factors, empirical Chinese micro enterprises based on the sample, there may be relationship between the system of enterprise heterogeneity and enterprise foreign direct investment decision, makes the conclusion of the article is more micro foundation. Figure 14, 41 tables, 163 references.

【学位授予单位】：南开大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

【参考文献】