人民币汇率预期视角下的中美贸易失衡研究

发布时间：2018-03-01 18:49

本文关键词： 人民币汇率汇率预期中美贸易失衡　出处：《对外经济贸易大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自2005年人民币汇率制度改革以来,人民币累计升值幅度已经高达近35%,回顾近8年的汇改进程,人民币汇率制度改革采取了渐进式改革模式,人民币汇率形成了持续地小幅单边升值并长期伴随升值预期的特征,渐进模式的缺陷是升值预期的持续存在,升值预期的长期存在会使升值不断自我强化,形成升值惯性。在我国目前经济下行条件下,人民币快速升值和持续升值预期对经济的影响更应当引起学者们的关注,所以对人民币汇率及汇率预期的相关研究更显迫切。在汇率大幅升值的背景下,中美贸易失衡却没有明显改善,反而出现了失衡程度加剧的局面,这一现实与传统的一些理论似乎相去甚远,更与美国压迫人民币升值的初衷大相径庭。所以本文希望从升值预期的全新角度来分析人民币升值背景下的“中美贸易收支之谜”。本文围绕在汇率预期这一全新视角展开研究,首先研究汇率预期的性质和影响因素,然后重点分析汇率预期通过马歇尔-勒纳条件、实际汇率、跨期消费、虚假贸易和货币供给对中美贸易收支的影响,主要研究汇率预期视角下的中美贸易失衡,并得到一些新的发现。人民币汇率预期符合适应性预期的特点,通过计量分析发现代表升值压力的汇率和外汇储备两个变量对汇率预期的影响非常显著,而通过量化国外的政治压力再进行计量检验后发现,国外政治压力对人民币升值预期影响也比较大,化解国外的政治压力是消除升值预期的重要手段。将汇率预期因素加入马歇尔-勒纳条件进行理论和计量分析后发现,汇率预期通过两方面来影响贸易余额情况的变化,首先是汇率预期抑制汇率对贸易收支的调节作用,其次汇率预期变化直接影响进口和出口,使货币升值不但不减少顺差,还可能会使顺差继续扩大。将汇率预期加入巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应理论,推导出实际汇率的影响因素主要是汇率预期偏差,而最终影响贸易余额变化的是预期偏差、国内外收入变化。从汇率预期通过跨期消费影响贸易收支的理论分析推导出汇率预期与贸易收支成负相关的结论。汇率预期和利差因素吸引了大量套利资本以虚假贸易的形式进入我国,大幅增加了我国对美国的贸易顺差。根据SVAR的计量结果分析,人民币升值预期通过货币供给会影响资产价格和通货膨胀,对中美贸易收支产生财富效应和价格效应。通过汇率预期的相关研究,可以更好的解释汇率对贸易收支的影响,更好的解释中美贸易失衡问题。政策上,应通过管理人民币升值预期,调节中美贸易失衡;通过引导汇率预期,更好的制定汇率政策
[Abstract]:Since the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime in 2005, the cumulative appreciation of the RMB has reached nearly 35 percent. Looking back at the past eight years of exchange rate reform, the RMB exchange rate system reform has adopted a gradual reform model. The RMB exchange rate has formed the characteristics of continuous small unilateral appreciation and long-term expectation of appreciation. The defect of the gradual model is the persistence of the expectation of appreciation, and the long-term existence of the expectation of appreciation will make the appreciation constantly strengthen itself. Under the current downward economic conditions in our country, the impact of the rapid appreciation of the RMB and the expectation of sustained appreciation on the economy should be paid more attention to by scholars. Therefore, it is even more urgent to study the RMB exchange rate and its expectations. Against the background of the substantial appreciation of the exchange rate, the Sino-US trade imbalance has not obviously improved, but on the contrary, there has been a situation in which the imbalance degree has intensified. This reality seems to be very different from some of the traditional theories. Therefore, this paper hopes to analyze the "mystery of Sino-US trade balance under the background of RMB appreciation" from the perspective of appreciation expectation. This paper first studies the nature and influencing factors of exchange rate expectation, and then analyzes the impact of exchange rate expectation on Sino-US trade balance through Marshall-Lerner terms, real exchange rate, intertemporal consumption, false trade and money supply. This paper mainly studies the trade imbalance between China and the United States from the perspective of exchange rate expectation, and obtains some new findings. The expectation of RMB exchange rate accords with the characteristics of adaptive expectation. Through the econometric analysis, it is found that the exchange rate and foreign exchange reserve, which represent the appreciation pressure, have a significant effect on the exchange rate expectation, but after quantifying the foreign political pressure, we find that the exchange rate and the foreign exchange reserve have great influence on the exchange rate expectation. The influence of foreign political pressure on the expectation of RMB appreciation is also relatively large, and the solution of foreign political pressure is an important means to eliminate the expectation of appreciation. After theoretical and quantitative analysis, it is found that the expected factors of exchange rate are added to the Marshall-Lerner condition for theoretical and econometric analysis. Exchange rate expectation affects the change of trade balance through two aspects: first, exchange rate expectation inhibits the adjustment effect of exchange rate on trade balance; secondly, exchange rate expectation changes directly affect imports and exports, so that currency appreciation does not reduce surplus. It is also possible that the surplus will continue to expand. By adding the exchange rate expectation to the Balassa-Samuelson effect theory, it is deduced that the main influencing factor of the real exchange rate is the expected deviation of the exchange rate, and the final influence on the change of the trade balance is the expected deviation. From the theoretical analysis of the effect of exchange rate expectation on trade income and expenditure through intertemporal consumption, the conclusion that exchange rate expectation is negatively correlated with trade balance is deduced. Exchange rate expectation and spread factor attract a large amount of arbitrage capital. The form of fake trade entered our country, This has greatly increased China's trade surplus with the United States. According to the results of the SVAR measurement, RMB appreciation is expected to affect asset prices and inflation through money supply. Wealth effect and price effect on Sino-US trade balance. Through relevant studies on exchange rate expectations, we can better explain the impact of exchange rate on trade balance, and better explain the trade imbalance between China and the United States. We should regulate the trade imbalance between China and the United States by managing the expectation of RMB appreciation, and better formulate exchange rate policy by guiding the expectation of exchange rate.
【学位授予单位】：对外经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.7

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