陕西省能源需求预测及其影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-04-03 20:11

  本文选题：能源　切入点：Logistic模型　出处：《中国管理科学》2016年S1期

【摘要】：在当前全球面临的能源危机日益严重的大背景下,节能问题受到世界各国的广泛关注和重视,为探索高效的节能政策,本文根据陕西省实际情况,以2012年为基期,以2013-2030年为预测期利用Logistic、ARIMA等数学模型对陕西省未来的人口、经济发展情况进行了预测,通过相关计算完成了未来陕西省能源需求量预测,并对陕西省的能源需求量进行了影响因素分析,最后基于上述计算分析结果为陕西省未来的能源战略提出了建议:①保持经济、人口适度增长;②优化产业结构,降低工业部门GDP占比;③实行技术改革及行业结构调整,降低工业部门能源消费强度。
[Abstract]:Under the background of the increasingly serious global energy crisis, the problem of energy conservation has received extensive attention and attention from all over the world. In order to explore efficient energy-saving policies, this paper, according to the actual situation in Shaanxi Province, takes 2012 as the base period.Taking 2013-2030 as the forecast period, the future population and economic development of Shaanxi Province are forecasted by using logistic Arima and other mathematical models, and the energy demand forecast of Shaanxi Province in the future is completed by correlation calculation.Finally, based on the results of the above calculation and analysis, the author puts forward some suggestions for the future energy strategy of Shaanxi Province, that is, keeping economy and optimizing the industrial structure with moderate population growth.To reduce the proportion of GDP in the industrial sector and implement technological reform and industrial structure adjustment, and reduce the intensity of energy consumption in the industrial sector.
【作者单位】： 西安交通大学热流科学与工程教育部重点实验室能源与动力工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重大资助项目(41590855)
【分类号】：F224;F426.2
，

本文编号：1706730