论中国的“金融超发展”
发布时间：2018-08-10 19:55
【摘要】：金融对经济发展的正面作用毋庸置疑,但若金融发展超过实体经济发展达到一定程度时,是否反而会对经济增长产生负的影响?针对这一问题,本文提出了"金融超发展"的概念,意指当金融部门发展相对于实体部门发展"超"过一定程度,会带来资源的次优配置,并容易引发系统性风险,不利于经济的增长。通过修正的AK模型,本文对"金融超发展"的机理进行了阐述,并选取不同区间的中国省级面板数据,采用一阶差分广义矩估计(FD-GMM)方法对中国是否存在"金融超发展"现象进行了分析。实证研究的结果发现,在控制了影响经济增长的其他因素之后,金融发展对于经济增长的影响是非线性的。若金融部门超过实体部门发展达到一定程度时,会对经济增长产生负的影响作用。
[Abstract]:There is no doubt about the positive effect of finance on economic development, but if the financial development exceeds the real economic development to a certain extent, will it have a negative impact on economic growth? In order to solve this problem, this paper puts forward the concept of "financial super development", which means that when the financial sector develops to a certain extent relative to the real sector, it will bring about sub-optimal allocation of resources and lead to systemic risks. It's not good for economic growth. Through the modified AK model, this paper expounds the mechanism of "financial super development", and selects the provincial panel data of different regions in China. The first order differential generalized moment estimation (FD-GMM) is used to analyze the existence of "financial superdevelopment" in China. The empirical results show that the financial development has a nonlinear effect on economic growth after controlling the other factors that affect economic growth. If the financial sector exceeds the real sector to a certain extent, it will have a negative impact on economic growth.
【作者单位】： 武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题“经济发展新常态下我国货币政策体系建设研究”(项目编号:15JZD013)的资助
【分类号】：F124;F832
本文编号：2176034
[Abstract]:There is no doubt about the positive effect of finance on economic development, but if the financial development exceeds the real economic development to a certain extent, will it have a negative impact on economic growth? In order to solve this problem, this paper puts forward the concept of "financial super development", which means that when the financial sector develops to a certain extent relative to the real sector, it will bring about sub-optimal allocation of resources and lead to systemic risks. It's not good for economic growth. Through the modified AK model, this paper expounds the mechanism of "financial super development", and selects the provincial panel data of different regions in China. The first order differential generalized moment estimation (FD-GMM) is used to analyze the existence of "financial superdevelopment" in China. The empirical results show that the financial development has a nonlinear effect on economic growth after controlling the other factors that affect economic growth. If the financial sector exceeds the real sector to a certain extent, it will have a negative impact on economic growth.
【作者单位】： 武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题“经济发展新常态下我国货币政策体系建设研究”(项目编号:15JZD013)的资助
【分类号】：F124;F832
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