杭州市商品房市场调控政策的系统动力学仿真研究

发布时间：2018-01-14 11:19

本文关键词：杭州市商品房市场调控政策的系统动力学仿真研究　出处：《浙江大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自2003年国家将房地产业定位为支柱产业以来,我国的房地产业出现了飞速的发展,近十年来房价与销售量同时大幅上涨,引起了社会各界的广泛关注。国家也出台了一系列的措施进行调控,但是结果却并不理想。因此,全面分析我国房地产市场的发展与宏观调控作用,构建政策对房地产市场影响的仿真模型是十分必要的。本文以杭州市商品房市场为例,建立系统动力学仿真模型,对政策调控作用下的杭州市商品房市场进行模拟,并通过政策实验,提出较有效的政策建议。本文的主要工作及结论有：首先,在总结国内外当前研究成果的基础上,针对房地产市场复杂多变的特性,选择对处理高阶次、非线性、多重反馈的系统问题具有优势的系统动力学方法进行本研究的模型构建与仿真。以杭州市商品房市场为例,将其划分为价格子系统、供给子系统和需求子系统(其中,需求子系统又区分自主性需求与投资性需求),绘制因果反馈图和系统流图,寻找因素间的关系以及各因素对系统的影响力,建立杭州市商品房市场系统动力学仿真模型。定义变量,运用多元回归、打分赋值等方法对杭州市商品房市场系统动力学仿真模型进行参数估计和指标估算,列出DYNAMO方程,运用计算机软件Vensim PLE6.2对模型运算,并进行真实性检验,通过对比仿真值与实际值,发现系统模型的整体仿真性能较好,平均误差都能保证在10%以内,可以认为模型是有效的。根据模型的仿真结果,2013年杭州市区商品房均价的预测值为18734元/m2。最后,调整模型参数,进行政策实验。结果表明：人口政策对商品房价格的影响较小,但对需求的刺激作用明显。宽松的货币政策会带动房价的上涨,而紧缩的货币政策并不会抑制房价的上升。按揭政策对商品房市场的影响最大,特别是宽松的按揭政策会推动房价和需求大量抬升,紧缩的按揭政策则会打压房价,同时减少需求量,但是变化幅度远不及宽松的政策作用,并且当政策的紧缩性到达一定的临界值时,继续加大调控力度对抑制价格的边际作用是有限的。新房购置契税税率的调整几乎对商品房市场没有太大影响,无论是提高还是降低税率对商品房市场的成交量和价格都改变不大。
[Abstract]:Since 2003, the country has positioned the real estate industry as the pillar industry, the real estate industry of our country has appeared the rapid development, the house price and the sales volume simultaneously rise sharply in the last ten years. The government has also issued a series of measures to control, but the results are not ideal. Therefore, the comprehensive analysis of the development of the real estate market in China and the role of macro-control. It is necessary to build a simulation model of the impact of policies on the real estate market. This paper takes the commercial housing market in Hangzhou as an example to establish the simulation model of system dynamics. This paper simulates the commercial housing market in Hangzhou under the action of policy regulation and puts forward some effective policy suggestions through policy experiments. The main work and conclusions of this paper are as follows: First of all, on the basis of summarizing the current research results at home and abroad, in view of the complex and changeable characteristics of the real estate market, choose to deal with the higher order, nonlinear. Multi-feedback system problem with the advantage of the system dynamics method to build and simulate the model of this study. Taking the commercial housing market in Hangzhou as an example, it is divided into price subsystem. The supply subsystem and the demand subsystem (among them, the demand subsystem distinguishes the independent demand from the investment demand, draws the causality feedback diagram and the system flow diagram, looks for the relationship between the factors and the influence of each factor on the system. The system dynamics simulation model of commercial housing market in Hangzhou was established. Define variables, use multivariate regression, score assignment and other methods to Hangzhou commercial housing market system dynamics simulation model parameter estimation and index estimation, and list the DYNAMO equation. The computer software Vensim PLE6.2 is used to calculate the model and verify the authenticity of the model. By comparing the simulation value with the actual value, it is found that the overall simulation performance of the system model is better. The average error can be guaranteed to be less than 10%, which can be regarded as valid. According to the simulation results of the model, the forecast value of the average price of commercial housing in Hangzhou urban area in 2013 is 18734 yuan / m2. Finally, adjust the parameters of the model, carry on the policy experiment. The result shows that the population policy has little influence on the commodity housing price, but the stimulative effect on the demand is obvious, and the loose monetary policy will lead to the rise of the house price. But tight monetary policy will not restrain the rise of house prices. Mortgage policy will have the greatest impact on the commodity housing market, especially the loose mortgage policy will promote a large increase in house prices and demand. Tight mortgage policy will suppress house prices and reduce demand, but the change is not as loose as the role of policy, and when the policy tightening reached a certain threshold. The marginal effect of increasing regulation and control on restraining prices is limited. The adjustment of contract tax rate on new house purchase has little effect on the commercial housing market. Whether raising or reducing the tax rate on the commercial housing market volume and prices do not change much.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;N941.3

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