中国投资结构及其与生产结构的关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-14 12:06

本文关键词：中国投资结构及其与生产结构的关系研究　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：固定资产投资是当年GDP的重要组成部分，能够通过乘数作用拉动经济增长，形成未来生产和服务能力，提供就业岗位，促进消费，在国民经济发展中具有重要作用；同时投资又是经济增长的三驾马车中最活跃的变量，稳增长必须稳投资，成为各地政府的共识；现阶段经济结构失衡的主要原因是投资结构的失衡，通过投资的存量和增量变动，是优化产业结构的根本方法，所以研究投资和投资结构对生产结构的影响是非常重要的。全文分为五部分:第一部分是引言,包括研究背景和选题的意义，国内外研究评介，文章的结构安排与创新点。第二部分是中国产业结构和投资结构的变迁，通过投资结构和产业结构的分析，来揭示我国投资结构和生产结构的变动规律，并分析其中的问题。第三部分是计量经济模型的实证研究,主要通过建立投资的加速模型、存量调整模型、中国投资函数模型，比较各模型的优缺点，从而确定一个描述中国投资总量的合理模型，并进行预测。第四部分是投入产出模型模型的实证研究,主要讨论1987年、1992年、1997年、2002年、2007年五张投入产出表中各行业的投资诱发系数的变动，并进行排序找出投资诱发系数的变动规律，预测了2012年的各行业的投资诱发系数；理论建模与实证分析结合在一起,将投入产出模型与计量经济学模型有机结合在一起,并进行对比分析、结构分析。第五部分通过全文分析的结论，给予政策建议。本文主要特点与创新点是通过世界各国人均投资的比较，以及理论分析得出中国投资率并不过高的结论，利用最新和较全面的数据比较了历年投资结构和生产结构的变化，并结合投资诱发系数的变化来分析原因，预测了2012年的投资诱发系数，建立了中国投资的计量经济模型,研究了中国投资的规律并进行预测，将计量经济模型与投入产出模型相结合，并进行了预测。
[Abstract]:Fixed asset investment is an important part of GDP in that year, which can stimulate economic growth through multiplier, form future production and service capacity, provide jobs and promote consumption. Plays an important role in the development of national economy; At the same time, investment is the most active variable in the troika of economic growth. The main reason of the imbalance of economic structure at present is the imbalance of investment structure, which is the fundamental method to optimize the industrial structure through the change of stock and increment of investment. So it is very important to study the influence of investment and investment structure on production structure. The full text is divided into five parts: the first part is the introduction, including the research background and the significance of the topic, domestic and foreign research reviews, the structure of the article and innovation. The second part is the changes of industrial structure and investment structure in China. Through the analysis of investment structure and industrial structure, this paper reveals the changing law of investment structure and production structure in China, and analyzes the problems. The third part is the empirical study of econometric model. Mainly through the establishment of investment acceleration model, stock adjustment model, China investment function model, compare the advantages and disadvantages of each model, so as to determine a reasonable model to describe the total amount of investment in China. The 4th part is an empirical study of the input-output model, which mainly discusses 1987, 1992, 1997, 1997. In 2007, five input-output tables show the change of investment inducement coefficient of each industry, and find out the law of change of investment inducement coefficient in order, and predict the investment inducement coefficient of each industry in 2012; Theoretical modeling and empirical analysis are combined, the input-output model and econometric model are organically combined, and the comparative analysis, structural analysis. 5th through the conclusion of the full text analysis. Give policy advice. The main features and innovations of this paper are the comparison of the per capita investment in different countries and the conclusion that the investment rate of China is not too high. Based on the latest and more comprehensive data, this paper compares the changes of investment structure and production structure over the years, analyzes the reasons for the change of investment inducement coefficient, and forecasts the investment inducement coefficient in 2012. The econometric model of Chinese investment is established, and the law of Chinese investment is studied and forecasted. The econometric model and the input-output model are combined and forecasted.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F124

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