基于帕累托最优的人口、经济与土地城镇化协调发展评价研究——以皖江城市带为例

发布时间：2018-10-24 22:26

【摘要】：本文从城镇化协调发展要求城镇系统达到帕累托最优的角度出发,运用数据包络分析法构建人口、经济与土地城镇化协调性评价模型,并以皖江城市带为例进行实证分析。研究结果表明:(1)将城镇化各维度同比例变化视为城镇化协调发展是不合理的;(2)皖江城市带城镇建设用地利用粗放,非农经济就业吸纳能力不足,非农劳动力未得到有效发挥,致使经济城镇化滞后于土地城镇化,人口城镇化超前于土地城镇化,城镇化协调性总体呈东强西弱、南高北低的空间格局;(3)城镇化建设应以经济城镇化为动力,以土地节约集约利用为支撑,提升城镇空间的经济承载力和人口承载力,形成建设用地增长与经济增长相匹配、非农劳动力增长与非农经济就业吸纳能力提升与相匹配的城镇化协调发展格局。
[Abstract]:From the point of view that the coordinated development of urbanization requires that the urban system reach Pareto optimum, this paper uses the data envelopment analysis method to construct the evaluation model of the coordination of population, economy and land urbanization, and takes the urban belt of Wanjiang River as an example to carry on the empirical analysis. The results show that: (1) it is unreasonable to regard the change of urbanization dimensions as the coordinated development of urbanization; (2) the extensive use of urban construction land in the urban zone of Anhui River, the lack of employment absorption capacity of non-agricultural economy, and the lack of effective exertion of non-agricultural labor force. As a result, the economic urbanization lags behind the land urbanization, the population urbanization is ahead of the land urbanization, the overall coordination of urbanization is the spatial pattern of the east strong and the west weak, the south high and the north low; (3) the urbanization construction should be driven by the economic urbanization. With land saving and intensive utilization as the support, the economic carrying capacity and population carrying capacity of urban space can be enhanced, and the growth of construction land will be matched with economic growth. The coordinated development pattern of non-agricultural labor force and employment absorption ability of non-agricultural economy is matched by urbanization.
【作者单位】：北京市土地整理储备中心;北京大学不动产研究鉴定中心;北京大学城市与环境学院;
【基金】：国土资源部公益性行业科研专项之中部地区城市带发展土地保障与监管技术系统开发与示范项目(201111010)
【分类号】：C924.2;F299.21

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