经济周期与产业波动

发布时间：2018-03-12 06:34

本文选题：经济周期　切入点：产业波动　出处：《中国社会科学院研究生院》2007年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】： 从产业角度对经济的研究在经济学中称之为结构学派。熊彼特、罗斯托、钱纳里等经济学家从较长期的角度对经济的波动及其中的结构因素作过研究;对经济短期波动的研究主要集中于现代周期理论,但其对规律性的描述主要集中于一些宏观经济变量与总产出之间的共变关系,从产业角度研究的较少。对周期中产业的波动,舒曼等经济学家曾作过一定的工作,国内部分经济学者也对波动中产业结构的变动作过一定的描述。但针对经济与产业波动的具体特征、产业间波动的相互关系等相对系统的描述还较为缺乏。本文主要对经济周期与产业波动中存在的规律性进行了较系统地阐述,从经济周期波动中产业的具体波动,不同产业间的波动的相互关系以及产业波动对经济的影响等角度入手,系统分析了产业、经济波动的相互关系。全文共分为六个部分,前两个部分主要介绍了经济周期及产业研究的相关概念及本文有关研究方法。第三部分介绍了经济周期波动过程中不同类型产业的不同特征,并论述了导致产业波动出现差异的原因。第四部分通过实证研究,发现了产业间周期存在的梯次传导现象,并分析了周期传导的原因。第五章阐述了产业波动与经济周期间存在的关系,并特别分析了其中主导产业的转换特征。第六部分总结全文,并根据结论,提出了规律运用的部分建议。本文采用理论分析与实证分析相结合,以实证性分析为主的分析方法。对周期的数据处理上,一方面采用以经济变量增长率指标衡量变动的周期性;同时,在可能的情况下采用时间序列中的周期因素测定周期方法。通过对大量的中外经济、产业的长、短期数据的计算和分析,得出了一些较明确的结论,揭示了经济与产业间、产业与产业间客观存在的一些规律。这些规律对加强经济和行业的认识,把握行业和周期波动的规律和特点,都有较大的参考价值。
[Abstract]:The study of economy from the angle of industry is called structural school in economics. Economists such as Schumpeter, Rostow and Chanari have studied the fluctuation of economy and its structural factors from a long-term perspective. The research on short-term economic fluctuation is mainly focused on the modern cycle theory, but its description of regularity mainly focuses on the covariant relationship between some macroeconomic variables and total output. Some economists, such as Schumann, have done some work, and some domestic economists have also described the changes in industrial structure in the volatility. But in view of the specific characteristics of economic and industrial fluctuations, The relative systematic description of inter-industry fluctuation is still lacking. In this paper, the regularity of economic cycle and industrial fluctuation is systematically expounded, and the specific fluctuation of industry is discussed from the perspective of economic cycle fluctuation. Starting with the interrelation between different industries and the influence of industrial fluctuation on economy, this paper systematically analyzes the interrelation between industry and economic fluctuation. The paper is divided into six parts. The first two parts mainly introduce the related concepts of business cycle and industry research and the relevant research methods in this paper. The third part introduces the different characteristics of different types of industries in the process of business cycle fluctuation. The paper also discusses the causes of the difference in industrial fluctuation. 4th, through empirical research, we find the trapezoidal conduction phenomenon in the inter-industry cycle. Chapter 5th expounds the relationship between industrial fluctuation and the period of economic week, and especially analyzes the characteristics of the transformation of leading industries. Part 6th summarizes the full text, and according to the conclusion, Some suggestions on the application of laws are put forward. In this paper, theoretical analysis and empirical analysis are combined, and the empirical analysis is the main analytical method. In the data processing of the period, on the one hand, the periodicity of the change is measured by the index of economic variable growth rate; at the same time, When possible, the periodic factors in the time series are measured by the method of cycle measurement. Through the calculation and analysis of a large number of Chinese and foreign economy, long and short term data of industry, some definite conclusions are drawn, which reveal the relationship between economy and industry. There are some laws between industry and industry which have great reference value for strengthening the understanding of economy and industry and grasping the law and characteristic of industry and cycle fluctuation.
【学位授予单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2007
【分类号】：F091.3

【引证文献】