京津冀地区机动车燃油质量标准升级的环境经济分析

发布时间：2018-03-14 00:19

本文选题：机动车污染　切入点：燃油质量标准　出处：《中国环境科学》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：比较分析了中国燃油质量标准与世界先进标准的差距及技术可行性,并基于可得的中石化与中石油等企业的燃油升级成本相关信息,估算了京津冀地区机动车燃油质量标准升级的直接经济成本(不区分汽油与柴油)约为:国III升级至国IV,142~470元/t;国IV升级至国V,142~236元/t;国V升级至《世界燃油规范》第五类,不低于142~236元/t.使用美国环保署(EPA)的燃油质量模型以及其他相关研究结果,通过选择硫含量、芳烃、烯烃含量等关键参数,本研究估算了不同燃油质量标准下的单车排放因子及其变化.同时,分别选择2005、2008以及2012年作为分析的基年,在当年车队组成结构不变的前提下,对京津冀地区的燃油质量提升进行了回溯性的环境经济分析,估算了在不同的基年将燃油标准升级至世界最高标准所可能带来的单年污染物减排量和累积污染物减排量.研究结果显示:燃油质量提升可以带来单车排放因子的下降,从而降低整个京津冀地区机动车的污染排放,且VOC和PM的减排效果更为显著;在机动车标准较低时-采用更高品质的燃油可以以较小成本带来更大的污染物减排;由于各地机动车数量和结构存在差异,燃油质量提升所带来的减排效果也存在地区差异;仅就燃油质量改进的直接成本与可以实现的污染物减排量而言,越早实现燃油质量升级越具有费用有效性.因此,在更大范围内尽快推进燃油质量升级可以有效促进机动车污染物的减排.
[Abstract]:This paper compares and analyzes the gap between China's fuel quality standards and the world's advanced standards and their technical feasibility, and based on the available information on the fuel upgrade costs of Sinopec and PetroChina, etc., It is estimated that the direct economic cost of upgrading motor vehicle fuel quality standards in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (without distinguishing between gasoline and diesel) is about: China's III upgrade to China's IVP142O470RMB / t; China IV's upgrade to the country's VV142C236RMB / t; and China's V upgrade to the 5th category of the World fuel Code. Using the fuel quality model of EPA EPAand other related research results, by selecting key parameters such as sulfur content, aromatics, olefin content, etc. In this study, the emission factors and their changes under different fuel quality standards were estimated. At the same time, 2005 / 2008 and 2012 respectively were selected as the base year of the analysis. The retroactive environmental and economic analysis of fuel quality improvement in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was carried out. Estimated the amount of emission reductions and cumulative emission reductions of pollutants per year that may result from upgrading fuel standards to the highest standards in the world in different base years. The results show that improved fuel quality can lead to a decrease in emission factors for single vehicles, In order to reduce the pollution emission of motor vehicles in the whole Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, and the emission reduction effect of VOC and PM is more remarkable, when the vehicle standard is lower-using higher quality fuel can bring more pollution reduction at lower cost. Because of the differences in the number and structure of motor vehicles, there are regional differences in the emission reduction effects caused by the improvement of fuel quality. Only for the direct cost of fuel quality improvement and the amount of pollutant emission reduction that can be achieved, The sooner the fuel quality upgrade is realized, the more cost effective it is. Therefore, to promote the fuel quality upgrade in a wider range can effectively promote the emission reduction of vehicle pollutants.
【作者单位】：北京大学环境科学与工程学院环境与经济研究所;中国环境科学研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71503279) 环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室专项经费(17K01ESPCP)
【分类号】：X196;X734.2

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