基于DSGE模型的碳排放政策效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-21 06:26

本文选题：DSGE　切入点：碳排放政策　出处：《北方工业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文研究目的是要模拟研究三种常见的碳排放政策(碳税政策、碳配额政策、碳排放强度政策)的政策效应。碳排放过量既是环境问题又是经济问题,也是全球亟需解决的问题。碳排放过量是外部性问题,其解决需要碳排放政策的规制。碳排放政策的规制,直接目的是解决环境问题,但同时也将对宏观经济产生影响。所以在选择碳排放政策时,需要检查政策效果。检验政策效果的一个重要方法就是在政策实施前模拟碳排放政策对环境质量和宏观经济的影响。本文的方法是在DSGE模型框架内构建包含碳排放政策约束的模型。这是因为模拟政策效应,目前最有效的方法之一就是DSGE模型。本文分别构建了碳税政策DSGE模型、碳配额政策DSGE模型、碳排放强度政策DSGE模型。在研究碳税政策效应时,构建了包含家庭、厂商、政府、环境四部门经济模型,引入了三种外生冲击即技术冲击、能源价格冲击和碳税税率冲击,给出了环境质量方程和碳排放函数,最后得到脉冲响应图;在研究碳配额政策、碳排放强度政策时,在模型基础上又引入了碳配额冲击和碳排放强度政策冲击。本文结论如下。第一,三种碳排放政策都有较好的减排作用。第二,对产出的影响上:碳税税率增加并不会对产出造成较大的负面影响;碳排放配额增加、碳排放强度加大短期内有利于产出,但长期来看甚至会损害产出;第三,碳排放政策的约束下,技术进步时,短期内环境质量下降;但长期内环境质量会变好,这和环境库兹涅茨理论符合,即随着经济发展,环境质量先变差后变好。我们得到的启示有三点。首先,本文结论给政策选择提供依据,短期内最有效的政策是数量型碳排放政策,即碳配额政策和碳排放强度政策,而中长期内碳税政策的减排效果也很理想。其次,政府要鼓励技术创新:一方面,技术进步对产出有很大的促进作用,另一方面,从环境质量角度看,虽然技术进步短期不利于环境,但中长期依然可以促进环境质量的提升。最后,作为一种减排策略,最好多种碳排放政策结合使用。虽然数量型碳排放政策长期甚至会有"双重红利效应",但短期对经济冲击较大,需要结合碳税政策实施,可以降低碳税来缓解短期经济波动,而碳税政策对环境质量的影响在短期内较小。
[Abstract]:The purpose of this paper is to simulate and study the policy effects of three common carbon emission policies (carbon tax policy, carbon quota policy, carbon intensity policy). The problem of excessive carbon emission is an external problem, which needs the regulation of carbon emission policy. The direct purpose of the regulation of carbon emission policy is to solve the environmental problem. But it will also have a macroeconomic impact. So when choosing a carbon policy, An important method to test the policy effect is to simulate the impact of carbon emission policy on environmental quality and macroeconomic before the implementation of the policy. The method of this paper is to construct the framework of DSGE model to include carbon emissions. The model of policy constraint. This is because of the simulation of policy effects, At present, one of the most effective methods is DSGE model. In this paper, DSGE model of carbon tax policy, DSGE model of carbon quota policy and DSGE model of carbon emission intensity policy are constructed. This paper introduces three kinds of exogenous shocks, that is, technology shock, energy price shock and carbon tax rate shock, gives the environmental quality equation and carbon emission function, and finally obtains the impulse response diagram. In the process of carbon emission intensity policy, carbon quota impact and carbon emission intensity policy impact are introduced on the basis of the model. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, three kinds of carbon emission policies have better emission reduction effect. Second, The impact on output: the increase in carbon tax rate will not have a significant negative impact on output; the increase in carbon emission quotas, carbon emission intensity increase in the short term, but even damage to output in the long run; third, Under the constraints of carbon emission policies, environmental quality will decline in the short term when technology advances; but environmental quality will improve in the long run, which is consistent with the environmental Kuznets theory, that is, as the economy develops, First of all, this paper concludes that the most effective policies in the short term are quantitative carbon emission policies, namely, carbon quota policies and carbon emission intensity policies. Second, the government should encourage technological innovation: on the one hand, technological progress has a great impact on output, on the other hand, from the point of view of environmental quality, Although technological progress is not good for the environment in the short term, it can still promote the improvement of environmental quality in the medium and long term. Finally, as a strategy for reducing emissions, It is best to combine a variety of carbon emission policies. Although the quantitative carbon emission policy may even have a "double dividend effect" in the long run, but the short-term impact on the economy is greater, it needs to be implemented in conjunction with the carbon tax policy, which can reduce the carbon tax to alleviate short-term economic fluctuations. The impact of carbon tax policy on environmental quality is small in the short term.
【学位授予单位】：北方工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X32;X196

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