基于碳生产率的我国经济增长方式分析

发布时间：2018-04-07 15:44

本文选题：经济增长方式　切入点：碳生产率　出处：《河北经贸大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国资源相对匮乏,同时也是资源消费大国。粗放式经济增长方式对环境压力日益增大,资源过度消费、环境污染和生态破坏严重。经济的持续增长和稳定发展靠高耗能来支撑,显然是不可能的。转变经济增长方式成为我国发展中的重中之重。面临日益严峻的资源支撑力瓶颈和环境承载力约束,加快转变经济增长方式已成为我国经济可持续发展的重要途径之一。转变经济增长方式从根本上是从高耗能、高污染,转向低耗能、低污染。关于经济的低碳增长,现有文献多停留在定性分析上,缺乏定量分析。以往我们多把提高碳生产率和转变经济增长方式作为两项重要任务提出,而现在则把两者相提并论,这体现了一种思想上的进步,对于深入贯彻落实创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享五大发展理念,推动我国经济增长由高速向中高速、高碳向低碳转型具有重要意义。本文采用将“碳”视为一种生产要素,从碳排放及碳生产率的方面对我国经济增长方式进行测定,同时对经济增长方式进行定性、定量分析,将经济增长方式具体细分为六大类型。通过对类型的具体划分标准,分三个层次实证分析我国各地区、三大区域及京津冀城市群,确定各个地区的经济增长类型。第一层次:就全国30个地区(西藏除外)来看,2个地区为低碳增长,7个地区为中碳增长(其中5个地区为中低碳增长、4个地区为中高碳增长),19个地区为高碳增长(其中4个地区为超高碳增长)。由此可知,我国大部分地区为高碳增长,增长方式最好的地区为北京、上海、天津,增长方式最不合理的地区有陕西、新疆、海南、宁夏。若将30个地区分为东部、东北部、中部以及西部地区,东部地区北京、上海属低碳增长,天津、广东为中高碳增长,其余地区均为高碳增长;东北部地区发展较为均衡,三地均为中碳增长;中部地区仅湖北为中碳增长,其余地区为高碳增长;西部地区中重庆、贵州、甘肃为中碳增长,其余地区为高碳增长。第二层次:从我国三大经济圈来看,京津冀、长三角、珠三角经济增长方式均为中碳增长,碳生产率对经济增长的贡献率京津冀珠三角长三角。京津冀内部,北京、天津、河北分别为低碳、中碳、高碳增长,差异明显。河北碳生产率对经济增长的贡献率为23%,不及天津1/2,不及北京1/3。长三角地区中上海属低碳增长,浙江、江苏属高碳增长,且三地区碳生产率对经济增长的贡献率分别为70%、33%、25%。珠三角地区为中碳增长。第三层次:京津冀城市群,包含北京、天津及河北的11个地市。在2010-2014年期间,属低碳增长的有7个,中碳增长的有3个,高碳增长的有3个。在近年环境问题大力整治阶段,廊坊、沧州及衡水地区仍为高碳增长,应引起大家重视。逐年对比各地区经济增长方式发展趋势,13个城市中除张家口、承德地区外,大部分地区均向低碳方向转变。经济增长方式类型由碳生产率、碳排放对经济增长的贡献率决定。研究转变经济增长方式的原因即可转化为如何提高碳生产率贡献率。因此,根据经验分析法和数量模型方法,建立计量分析模型,分别从产业结构、能源结构与技术水平方面分析影响碳生产率的原因。产业结构方面:我国产业结构以二、三产业为主。三产在2012年赶超二产,成为我国占比最重产业。第二产业能源消费约占全国能源消费的70%。三大产业中,第二产业对经济增长方式的影响最为重要。而我国六大高耗能产业能源消耗占工业总能耗的69%,占全国能耗的51%。加快从能源密集型为主的重工业向以服务为主的第三产业转移,促进产业结构升级变得尤为重要。能源结构方面:各类能源的碳排放系数不同,导致能源结构对碳生产率的影响有所不同。在提供相同能量的同时,煤产生的二氧化碳最高,碳生产率最低。我国能源生产中以煤为主,大约占比70%。清洁能源,如天然气、水电、核电和风电等生产比重则不断调整上升。从各类能源的消费来看,煤炭消费仍是主流,石油消费基本稳定在17%,清洁能源消费总也为17%左右。技术水平方面:通过节能产品的应用、新技术研发等方面,可提高碳生产率,转变经济增长方式。从发明专利授权量及万人拥有专利项可看出我国技术水平呈上升趋势,但针对我国人口众多现象,平均每万人不足2项专利,发明专利相对匮乏。最后,根据以上实证结果,提出有关能源、产业、低碳、创新四方面的相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:Our resources are relatively scarce, but also resource consumption. Extensive mode of economic growth and increasing pressure on the environment, excessive consumption of resources, environmental pollution and ecological destruction. Sustainable economic growth and stable development to rely on the support of high energy consumption, it is obviously not possible. Changing the mode of economic growth become the priority among priorities I in the process of development. The bearing capacity bottlenecks and constraints facing the increasingly serious environment supporting resources, accelerate the transformation of economic growth has become one of the most important ways for the sustainable development of our economy. Fundamentally change the mode of economic growth is from high energy consumption, high pollution, low pollution to low energy consumption, low carbon growth on the economy. Many of the existing literature, based on the qualitative analysis, lack of quantitative analysis. Before we used to increase carbon productivity and change the mode of economic growth as an important task of the two, and now two Researchers compared, this reflects a kind of ideological progress, to thoroughly implement the innovation, coordination, green, open, sharing five development ideas, to promote China's economic growth from high-speed to high-speed, high carbon to low-carbon transformation has important significance. This paper uses the "carbon" as a factor of production from, to determine the economic growth pattern of our country carbon emissions and carbon productivity, quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, the mode of economic growth, the economic growth mode is divided into six types. According to the specific criteria for the classification of types, an empirical analysis of three levels of China's various regions, three regions and Beijing Tianjin city group, to determine the region's economic growth. The first level: the 30 parts of the country (except Tibet), the 2 regions to low-carbon growth, 7 regions in the growth of carbon (of which 5 for low carbon growth in 4 areas Growth of high carbon), 19 regions for high carbon growth (of which 4 for ultra high carbon growth). Therefore, most areas of our country for high carbon growth, regional growth the best way for Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, the growth mode of the most unreasonable areas are Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Hainan. Ningxia. If the 30 regions will be divided into eastern, northeastern, central and western regions, the eastern region of Beijing, Shanghai is a low carbon growth, Tianjin, Guangdong for high carbon growth, the rest are high carbon growth; northeast area development is more balanced, three of which were in the central region only carbon growth; Hubei is in the growth of carbon, the rest is high carbon growth; the western region in Chongqing, Guizhou, Gansu for the rest of the growth of carbon, for high carbon growth. The second level: from the three major economic circles in China, Tianjin, the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta economic growth pattern is in the growth of carbon, carbon productivity of by The contribution rate of economic growth in Yangtze River Delta Pearl River Delta Beijing Tianjin Hebei. Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei respectively for low carbon, medium carbon and high carbon growth significantly. The Hebei carbon productivity contribution to economic growth rate of 23%, as Tianjin 1/2, 1/3. inferior to Beijing in the Yangtze River Delta in Shanghai belongs to low carbon growth in Zhejiang Jiangsu, is a high carbon and carbon productivity growth, three in the contribution rate of economic growth were 70%, 33%, 25%. in the Pearl River Delta region for carbon growth. The third level: Beijing and Tianjin city group, including Beijing, 11 cities in Tianjin and Hebei. During the 2010-2014 years, there is low carbon growth 7, in the carbon growth of 3, high carbon growth of 3. In recent years, Langfang environmental problems, vigorously rectification stage, Cangzhou and Hengshui is still a high carbon growth, should attract attention. By contrast the mode of economic growth regional development trend, the 13 City in Zhangjiakou, In Chengde, most areas were changed to low-carbon direction. The mode of economic growth by the type of carbon productivity, carbon emission rate determines the contribution to economic growth. The research can cause the change of economic growth mode transformation is how to improve the carbon productivity contribution rate. Therefore, according to the empirical analysis method and quantitative model method, establishing econometric analysis model respectively, from the industrial structure, analysis of the influencing factors of carbon productivity, energy structure and technology level. The industrial structure, the industrial structure of our country in two, three industries. Three in 2012 to catch up with the second, to become China's most heavy industry accounted for second. The industrial energy consumption accounted for about three of industrial energy consumption 70%. in the impact of the second industry on the economic growth pattern is the most important. But China's six high energy consuming industrial energy consumption accounted for 69% of total industrial energy consumption, energy consumption accounted for 51%. to speed up from energy intensive Type of heavy industry transfer to service based on third industries, promote the upgrading of the industrial structure has become particularly important. The energy structure, carbon emission coefficient of different energy, resulting in energy structure effect on carbon productivity is different. For the same energy at the same time, the carbon dioxide produced by coal is highest, the lowest carbon productivity of energy production. China's coal dominated, accounting for about 70%. of clean energy, such as natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power and wind power production proportion is constantly adjust the rise. From all kinds of energy consumption, coal consumption is still the mainstream, oil consumption basically stable at 17%, clean energy consumption is about 17%. The total level of technology. Through the application of energy-saving products, new technology research and development, can increase carbon productivity, change the mode of economic growth. The amount of invention patents and patent term million people have seen in our technical level This trend is on the rise. But for the large population in China, the average number of patents per capita is less than 2 patents, and the invention patents are relatively scarce. Finally, based on the above empirical results, we put forward four related policy recommendations on energy, industry, low carbon and innovation.

【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X196;F124.1

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