经济发展与利率的决定：一个基于新兴古典经济学的分析

发布时间：2018-08-26 07:31

【摘要】：一般来说，利率的决定可分为两种基本类型：市场决定利率和政府决定利率。对前者的研究涉及到自由经济中市场利率形成的真实机制问题；对后者的研究则涉及到利率政策影响经济的作用机理问题。而研究前者是研究后者的基础。然而，现代利率决定理论的研究，都存在着仅关注流通领域而忽视生产领域的问题。显然，利率的产生及利率在经济生活中所起的作用都离不开生产领域。正因为如此，现代利率决定理论不可避免地存在着一个极大的局限性，即对于利率与生产领域的关系方面的研究几乎是一片空白，，这无疑会影响这些理论对现实经济的解释能力和指导作用。例如，根据新古典综合利率决定理论，低利率政策可以通过扩大投资需求来促进经济发展，但该理论对于利率如何通过影响人们的投资与借贷决策而影响分工的网络规模、劳动生产率及经济发展的过程则不予讨论，而这也成为这类利率理论研究中的“黑箱”问题。显然，如果我们不清楚利率在生产领域中的决定机制及利率对生产领域进而对经济发展的作用机理的话，那么依据这样的理论而制定的利率政策的有效性就非常值得怀疑的了。因此，如何打开这个“黑箱”，将生产领域与流通领域结合在一起来研究利率决定机制及利率政策影响经济的作用机理等问题，将无疑是有关利率决定问题的探讨中一个非常具有实践意义和有可能在理论研究中获得重大突破的方面。我们认为，无论是利率的决定机制还是利率对经济的作用机理，都与分工演进及经济发展有关。正因此，本文对上述两个问题的探讨并不停留在问题本身，而是将其与社会经济发展的一般机制的探讨相结合。我们总结和提炼了斯密、马克思等古典经济学家关于分工与利率决定的观点，并运用新兴古典分析框架及其超边际分析方法建立了新的有关分工与专业化的利率决定模型，通过该模型我们对这些问题进行了研究。具体研究内容如下： 1．概述了利率决定理论的发展，总结了现代利率决定理论的最新研究成果，并对当前理论研究中存在的问题及其原因进行了分析。 2．在分析了主流希克斯-汉森模式的理论本身所存在的种种严重缺陷之后，我们回归古典，在斯密、马克思等古典经济学家关于分工与利率决定的第11页西南交通大学博士研究生学位论文观点的启发下，分析了利率决定与经济发展之间的内在联系。 3.指出了在研究利率与储蓄之间的关系时将储蓄进行分类的重要性，并根据人们进行储蓄的动机和对利率的敏感性不同，将储蓄分为“获利性储蓄” 与“非获利性储蓄”两大类。 4.建立了一个内生经济发展和借贷行为的、两种产品的消费者一生产者的动态一般均衡模型，通过该模型我们将利率的决定与价值理论结合在一起，并研究了有关生产领域和流通领域共同决定利率水平及经济发展速度的过程。 5.在上述模型的基础上，我们将生产领域和流通领域结合起来研究了利率政策影响经济发展的作用机理等问题。关键词:经济发展;利率决定;动态超边际分析;分工的网络效果;瓦尔拉斯均衡;
[Abstract]:Generally speaking, the decision of interest rate can be divided into two basic types: market decides interest rate and government decides interest rate.
However, the study of modern interest rate determination theory has the problem of focusing only on the field of circulation but neglecting the field of production. Obviously, the generation of interest rate and the role of interest rate in economic life are inseparable from the field of production. Research on the relationship between low interest rate policy and production is almost blank, which will undoubtedly affect the explanatory power and guiding role of these theories in the real economy. Investment and lending decisions affect the size of the division of labor, while labor productivity and the process of economic development are not discussed. This is also a "black box" problem in the study of interest rate theory. Therefore, how to open the "black box" and combine the fields of production and circulation to study the mechanism of interest rate determination and the mechanism of interest rate policy affecting the economy will undoubtedly be related to interest rate determination. It is of great practical significance and important breakthroughs in theoretical research.
We believe that both the decision mechanism of interest rate and the action mechanism of interest rate on economy are related to the evolution of division of labor and economic development. Considering the views of classical economists on division of labor and interest rate determination, a new interest rate determination model for division of labor and specialization is established by using the new classical analytical framework and its super-marginal analysis method.
1. Summarize the development of interest rate determination theory, summarize the latest research results of modern interest rate determination theory, and analyze the existing problems and their causes in current theoretical research.
2. After analyzing the serious defects of the mainstream Hicks-Hansen model, we return to the classical economists, such as Smith, Marx, about the division of labor and the determination of interest rates.
Eleventh pages
Doctoral dissertations of Southwest Jiao Tong University
Inspired by the viewpoint, the internal relationship between interest rate determination and economic development is analyzed.
3. points out the importance of classifying savings when studying the relationship between interest rates and savings.
According to the difference between people's motivation to save and the sensitivity to interest rates, savings are divided into "profitable savings".
And two categories of "non profitable savings".
4. established an endogenous economic development and lending behavior, a producer of two products.
Based on the dynamic general equilibrium model, we combine the interest rate decision with the value theory.
It also studied the decisions on interest rates and economic development in the fields of production and circulation.
Cheng.
5. on the basis of the above models, we have combined the production and circulation fields to study profits.
Rate policy affects the mechanism of economic development.
Key words: economic development; interest rate determination; dynamic infra marginal analysis; network effect of division of labor; tile
Lleras equilibrium;
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2004
【分类号】：F091.3

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