区域质量形势评价及预测技术研究

发布时间：2018-09-01 12:53

【摘要】： 区域质量形势评价与预测技术是一套面向区域整体质量水平评价与预测的理论和方法体系。其核心观点是从整体上而不是从某一具体产品或企业的角度研究区域的质量形势。区域质量形势评价理论认为,传统的数量增长型并不能完全反映区域经济的持续发展能力,同时还要对“数量增长”和“质量效益”两个方面进行综合度量。区域质量形势评价理论提出“区域质量”和“区域质量形势”的概念,认为一个区域或行业不论大小都有其整体质量水平,且与区域经济的发展密切相关。很显然,在高品质区域,人们的生活可以远离假冒伪劣产品的危害,区域的生活质量和经济发展水平必然就高。本课题提出了区域质量的三要素立体模型和指针表模型,用于评价及预测区域质量形势。本文主要内容分为以下几个部分。第一部分,面对不断发生的区域性或行业性的系列重大质量事件,阐述了质量形势区域化和质量观念区域化的背景。以整体评价的观点分析了传统质量评价技术,分别分析了面向产品、企业、社会效果评价的局限性,指出在宏观上和总量上建立区域质量指标的必要性,并指明了评价当前状态和预测发展趋势的重要意义,并提出区域质量形势评价理论研究的课题。第二部分,构建了区域质量形势研究的基本理论框架。定义了“区域质量”、“区域质量形势”、“区域质量三要素”等概念,指出了区域质量水平是由区域内所有产品的产品特性、企业的流程能力和社会效果三个要素的共同表现,并成为区域质量形势评价及预测技术的基础。建立了区域质量三要素立体模型和指针表模型,围绕如何评价及预测区域质量形势,研究了区域质量形势分析、评价及预测的基本理论方法,如对数透视变换技术、复合线性矩阵方法、马尔科夫过程分析方法、支持向量机方法等,形成了区域质量形势评价的基本理论。第三部分,重点研究了区域质量形势理论的指标体系。建立了区域质量形势指标体系框架,将指标体系分为评价指标、要素指标、属性指标三个层次。其中评价指标定义为A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H八等级制指标;要素指标定义为流程能力、产品特性及社会效果三种要素;属性指标定义为包含39个属性在内的6属性表。在此基础上将区域质量形势的6属性表进行了量化。第四部分,重点研究了区域质量形势评价技术。首先对区域质量形势评价的步骤和组织进行了界定。然后用复合线性矩阵方法对区域质量水平的三种要素进行详细计算,得到区域质量水平的三个指数。此后在子区域合并为总区域的基础上,对各个子区域的质量水平采用随机抽样的方法,得到总区域(或某行业)的区域质量水平的均值、中位数、众数等特征值,最后用指针表模型对总区域的质量形势进行了分析和评价。第五部分,重点研究了区域质量形势预测技术。主要分为状态预测和属性预测两个类型。状态预测技术是基于马尔科夫过程分析技术的整体预测,详细研究了预测过程的预测假设、预测模型,基本步骤、初始状态、转移矩阵、平衡态分析、预测指针表分析等。属性预测技术首先用主成分分析法筛选了区域质量的主要属性,然后用属性与结果的“数据对”训练支持向量机,形成区域质量属性预测模型并予以预测,达到属性预测的目的。第六部分,研究了区域质量形势的原型系统,主要利用MATLAB/SIMLINK系统仿真软件对区域质量水平评价和形势预测的部分主要模块进行了模拟运行,其中包括流程能力指数计算模块、产品特性指数计算模块、社会效果指数计算模块、状态预测模块、属性预测模块等,该原型系统为下一步的推广应用打下了基础。第七部分,对全文进行总结,概括了本研究的创新技术和方法,并展望了今后的研究工作。
[Abstract]:Regional quality situation assessment and prediction technology is a set of theories and methodologies for evaluating and predicting the overall quality level of a region.Its core point is to study the regional quality situation as a whole rather than from the perspective of a specific product or enterprise.The regional quality situation assessment theory holds that the traditional quantitative growth model can not be completed. It fully reflects the sustainable development ability of regional economy, and at the same time, it needs to measure the "quantity growth" and "quality benefit" comprehensively.
The theory of regional quality situation evaluation puts forward the concepts of "regional quality" and "regional quality situation". It holds that a region or industry has its overall quality level regardless of its size and is closely related to the development of regional economy. Quality and economic development level must be high. This paper puts forward three-dimensional model of regional quality and pointer table model to evaluate and predict regional quality situation. The main content of this paper is divided into the following parts.
In the first part, in the face of a series of regional or industrial quality events, this paper expounds the background of regionalization of quality situation and regionalization of quality concept, analyzes the traditional quality evaluation technology from the viewpoint of overall evaluation, analyzes the limitations of product-oriented, enterprise-oriented and social effect evaluation respectively, and points out the macroscopic and total quantity. The necessity of establishing regional quality index is pointed out, and the significance of evaluating the current state and forecasting the development trend is pointed out, and the research topic of regional quality situation evaluation theory is put forward.
In the second part, the basic theoretical framework of regional quality situation research is constructed, and the concepts of "regional quality", "regional quality situation" and "three elements of regional quality" are defined. It is pointed out that regional quality level is the common expression of the product characteristics of all products in the region, the process capability of enterprises and the social effects of the three elements, and is formed. For the basis of regional quality situation evaluation and prediction technology, a three-dimensional model of regional quality and a pointer table model are established. Focusing on how to evaluate and predict regional quality situation, the basic theoretical methods of regional quality situation analysis, evaluation and prediction, such as logarithmic perspective transformation, composite linear matrix method and Markov pass, are studied. The method of process analysis and support vector machine method form the basic theory of regional quality situation evaluation.
In the third part, the index system of regional quality situation theory is mainly studied. The index system is divided into three levels: evaluation index, factor index and attribute index. The attribute index is defined as six attribute tables including 39 attributes. On this basis, the six attribute tables of regional quality situation are quantified.
In the fourth part, the evaluation technology of regional quality situation is mainly studied. Firstly, the steps and organization of regional quality situation evaluation are defined. Then, the three elements of regional quality level are calculated in detail by using the method of composite linear matrix, and the three indexes of regional quality level are obtained. On the one hand, the average, median, mode and other eigenvalues of the regional quality level of the whole region (or an industry) are obtained by random sampling method. Finally, the quality situation of the whole region is analyzed and evaluated by the indicator table model.
The fifth part focuses on the regional quality situation prediction technology, which is mainly divided into two types: state prediction and attribute prediction. State prediction technology is the overall prediction based on Markov process analysis technology. The main attributes of regional quality are filtered by principal component analysis, and then support vector machine is trained by data pairs of attributes and results to form a regional quality attribute prediction model and predict it, so as to achieve the purpose of attribute prediction.
In the sixth part, the prototype system of regional quality situation is studied. The main modules of regional quality level evaluation and situation prediction are simulated by using MATLAB/SIMLINK system simulation software, including process capability index calculation module, product characteristic index calculation module, social effect index calculation module and state prediction module. The prototype system has laid the foundation for further promotion and application.
The seventh part summarizes the full text, summarizes the innovative techniques and methods of this study, and looks forward to the future research work.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2009
【分类号】：F061.5;F203

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