互联网企业投资价值研究
发布时间：2019-05-25 03:51
【摘要】： 在20世纪的最后两个十年中，互联网作为改变整个世界运行状态与构成结构的一种新兴事物开始萌生、发展以及壮大，到目前为止已经在世界政治、经济、文化、人类生活等等各个方面产生了翻天覆地的深刻影响。可以说，有别于传统的工业经济、农业经济的20世纪晚期以及21世纪的新兴经济的内在驱动要素就是网络，新兴经济实现了地缘空间上的突飞猛进，亦即当代最引人注目的经济社会的全球化形态。这就是网络经济，我们已经进入到网络时代。 在网络经济的时代里，网络企业呈现出完全不同于传统工业经济的价值增长方式和资本扩张方式，其扩张速度如果从传统产业的角度来看，几乎是不可思议的，如亚马逊公司自成立的三年半的时间内，公司年营业收入迅速从51万美元扩张到6.1亿美元，但更令人惊异的是网络企业在资本市场的表现，大部分网络股近几年均上涨了几倍甚至几十倍，但同他们高企的股价相比的是，除雅虎等少数公司外，大部分互联网公司从来就没有盈利，甚至在短期内也看不见赢利的希望。 显然，，在这种情况下，我们如果继续套用传统的投资价值评估体系和市盈率定价模型来对网络股来进行投资价值分析和定价，只会得出一个结论：市场错了。但是事实并不是这样，因为人们看好网络股的并非是它现在的赢利能力，而是其爆炸性的成长速度和未来收益的巨大预期。 作为证券市场的研究者和参与者，我们应牢记“市场永远是正确的”这句箴言，主动去适应市场。既然市场是正确的，那么就也只能有一个结论：用传统的投资价值评估体系和市盈率定价模型来对网络股来进行投资价值分析和定价是错误的。怎样才能建立适应网络经济时代的投资价值评估方式和定价模型，已成为摆在我们面前一个即具有重要的理论探讨意义和又具有重大实践意义的课题。 本文即试图通过对网络产业的价值源泉进行经济学上的分析，然后在此基础上，首先设计一整套关于网络股的价值评估体系，然后再WP=3建立一个能将网络经济所特有的价值指标（如注册用户数、叶面浏览率等）准确转化为可比的收入、赢利指标并涵盖其超强增长潜力的定价模型，这正是写作本文的目的所在。 本文的写作思路主要是围绕如何构建网络企业的价值评估体系定价模型而展开的。 首先运用大量数据和事实来说明，世界范围内网络经济的飞速发展在呼唤人们对网络经济价值源泉的研究及适合于网络股的定价模型，其后在展开对网络经济价值源泉的理论探索前，首先几个问题作出了界定，既网络是否仅仅是一种工具，网络技术是生产力还是生产关系， 网络经济能否创造价值，以及什么是网络时代新的财富观。并以此作为我们理论的基础，运用经济学原理解释了网络经济的三个基本价值源泉：直接经济，注意力经济和规模经济。其后我们运用上述对网络经济价值源泉的经济学分析，首先按现阶段对网络企业的分类，即网络设备提供商、网络运行提供商、网络接入服务商（ISP）、网络内容提供商（ICP）、电子商务五个层次，分别对其价值创造进行了分析，并在其后提出了一套关于网络企业的价值评估体系，然后在基于传统的P/E的基础上，推出了TEMA——P/E/G定价方法。并在文章的最后，运用比较经济学的分析方法和上文所推出的定价模型，结合手头资料，对世界上最著名的电子商务企业——亚马逊书店进行了一个简单的定价分析。 本文共分五章，各章的主要内容和观点如下： 第一章是导论，第一部分主要通过大量事实和数据的陈列，表明网络经济已经到来并成为驱动21世纪新兴经济的内在驱动要素，从而引出本论文的论点所在：即对网络经济价值来源的探索和构建一套关于网络企业的价值评估体系和网络股定价模式。在第二部分主要介绍了近期国内经济学界关于网络经济的一些研究观点 ，第三部分主要介绍了本文的研究主题、方法和论文结构。 第二章主要对网络经济的价值源泉做了经济学基础上的理论分析，在运用经济学分析网络经济的价值源泉之前，笔者首先对几个问题作出了一个界定：既网络是不是仅是一种工具？网络技术是生产力WP=4又是生产关系？网络经济能否创造价值以及什么是网络时代新的财富观。 在对上述几个问题作出界定以后，我们将之作为我们理论的前提并在第二部分对网络经济价值源泉的经济学分析中，明确提出网络经济的三个基本价值源泉: 一、直接经济。即网络经济的直接性决定了它比工业经济有着更经济的生产营销体系,其所节省的大量资源消耗与交易成本则转化为巨大的价值源泉 二、注意力经济。文中提出对于能够零边界成本地无限复制的信息来说,其价值的衡量必须以注意力为标准;只有获得注意力的信息才具有价值。这就是注意力经济的本质。随着互联网逐步发展成为信息社会的基础信息平台,它将获得对注意力资源的完全控制权,同时这也意味着巨大的价值、财富的转移。 三、规模经济。文中提出网络经济是典型的规模报酬递增经济，这主要具有两方面的含义 1."互联网的价值等于其节点数的平方”,即著名的网络法则--Metcalfe法则。2.收益递增。由以上两点可看出,随着规模(用户)的增长而呈现的收入(价值)二次方程式增长与平均成本迅速下降,构成了网络经济独特的规模报酬递增
[Abstract]:In the last two decades of the 20th century, the Internet, as an emerging thing that changes the state and structure of the world's entire world, has started, developed and expanded, and has so far been in the world's political, economic, cultural, Human life and so on have a profound impact on all aspects. It can be said that different from the traditional industrial economy, the late 20th century of the agricultural economy and the inner driving factor of the emerging economy of the 21st century are the network, and the emerging economy has realized the rapid development of the geo-space, that is, the most striking economic and social globalization. This is the network economy, and we have entered the network age. In the era of network economy, the network enterprise presents the value growth mode and the capital expansion mode completely different from the traditional industrial economy, and the expansion speed of the network enterprise is almost inconceivable from the perspective of the traditional industry, such as the self-made of the Amazon. In the three-and-a-and-a-half years of the year, the company's annual operating income has quickly expanded from $51.1 million to $6.1 billion, but it is more surprising that most of the network shares have risen several times or even a few times in recent years, compared to their high share price, In addition to a few companies such as Yahoo, most of the Internet companies have never been profitable, or even in the short term We can't see the hope of making a profit. Obviously, in this case, if we continue to apply the traditional investment value evaluation system and the price-to-earnings pricing model, we can invest in the network shares. The analysis and pricing will only result in a conclusion that the market is wrong. But the truth is not that, because it is not the current profitability of the network, but it's not The explosive growth rate and the great expectations of future earnings. As the researchers and participants in the stock market, we should keep in mind the "The market is a" As the market is right, there is only one conclusion: the traditional investment value evaluation system And how to set up an investment value evaluation method and a pricing model that can meet the economic times of the network has become a problem before us. In this paper, the author tries to make an economic analysis of the value source of the network industry, and then, on the basis of this, first design a complete set of network shares. The value evaluation system, then WP = 3, establishes a value index (such as the registered user number, the leaf surface browsing rate, etc.) specific to the network economy to be accurately converted This is the purpose of writing this article for comparable income, profitability indicators and pricing models that cover their strong growth potential. The article's thinking is mainly about how to build the pricing model of the value-evaluation system of the network enterprise. First of all, we use a lot of data and facts to illustrate the world. The rapid development of the network economy calls for the study of the source of the value source of the network economy and the pricing model which is suitable for the network shares. a definition is made as to whether the network is merely a tool, whether the network technology is productivity or production relations, whether the network economy can create value, and what is the network On the basis of our theory, this paper explains the three basic value sources of the network economy: the direct economy, the attention economy and the scale economy. Then we use the above-mentioned economic analysis of the source of the economic value of the network, firstly, according to the present stage, The classification of network enterprises, that is, network equipment provider, network operation provider, network access service provider (ISP), network content provider (ICP), and e-commerce five levels, have made the value creation respectively. Based on the traditional P/ E, the TEMA _ P/ E/ G pricing method is introduced and compared with the traditional P/ E. the analytical method of economics and the pricing model introduced above, Combined with the information on hand, a simple price analysis is carried out on the most famous e-commerce enterprise _ Amazon bookshop in the world. The paper is divided into five chapters. The main content and point of view of the chapters is as follows: Chapter one is the introduction, the first part mainly through a large number of facts and the display of the data, indicating the network The economy has come and becomes the inner driving factor to drive the emerging economy of the 21st century, so as to lead out the thesis's argument: the exploration and construction of the source of network economic value. The second part mainly introduces some research points on the network economy in the recent domestic economic circle, and the third part mainly introduces the subject, the method and the structure of the paper. The second chapter is mainly on the network The economic value source is the theoretical analysis on the basis of economics, Before the analysis of the value source of the network economy, the author first made a definition of several problems: not only is the network only a tool, the network technology is the productivity WP = 4 and the production relations? The network economy Can you create value to and what is the new concept of wealth in the network age. After defining the above problems, we will serve as the premise of our theory and in the second part the source of network economic value In the economic analysis of spring, the three basic value sources of the network economy are put forward: one, the direct economy, that is, the direct nature of the network economy It's more economical than the industrial economy The production and marketing system, which saves a large amount of resource consumption and transaction cost, is converted into a great source of value, and the attention is economy. zero-to-zero boundary cost The measurement of its value must focus on the standard of attention. It is the essence of the attention economy. With the gradual development of the Internet as the basic information platform of the information society, it will gain full control of attention resources, and it also means great value, the transfer of wealth............................................................................................................................ Ji. The text of the article The network economy is a typical scale-reward-increasing economy, which has two meanings: "The value of the Internet is equ"
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2000
【分类号】：F062.5
本文编号：2485467
[Abstract]:In the last two decades of the 20th century, the Internet, as an emerging thing that changes the state and structure of the world's entire world, has started, developed and expanded, and has so far been in the world's political, economic, cultural, Human life and so on have a profound impact on all aspects. It can be said that different from the traditional industrial economy, the late 20th century of the agricultural economy and the inner driving factor of the emerging economy of the 21st century are the network, and the emerging economy has realized the rapid development of the geo-space, that is, the most striking economic and social globalization. This is the network economy, and we have entered the network age. In the era of network economy, the network enterprise presents the value growth mode and the capital expansion mode completely different from the traditional industrial economy, and the expansion speed of the network enterprise is almost inconceivable from the perspective of the traditional industry, such as the self-made of the Amazon. In the three-and-a-and-a-half years of the year, the company's annual operating income has quickly expanded from $51.1 million to $6.1 billion, but it is more surprising that most of the network shares have risen several times or even a few times in recent years, compared to their high share price, In addition to a few companies such as Yahoo, most of the Internet companies have never been profitable, or even in the short term We can't see the hope of making a profit. Obviously, in this case, if we continue to apply the traditional investment value evaluation system and the price-to-earnings pricing model, we can invest in the network shares. The analysis and pricing will only result in a conclusion that the market is wrong. But the truth is not that, because it is not the current profitability of the network, but it's not The explosive growth rate and the great expectations of future earnings. As the researchers and participants in the stock market, we should keep in mind the "The market is a" As the market is right, there is only one conclusion: the traditional investment value evaluation system And how to set up an investment value evaluation method and a pricing model that can meet the economic times of the network has become a problem before us. In this paper, the author tries to make an economic analysis of the value source of the network industry, and then, on the basis of this, first design a complete set of network shares. The value evaluation system, then WP = 3, establishes a value index (such as the registered user number, the leaf surface browsing rate, etc.) specific to the network economy to be accurately converted This is the purpose of writing this article for comparable income, profitability indicators and pricing models that cover their strong growth potential. The article's thinking is mainly about how to build the pricing model of the value-evaluation system of the network enterprise. First of all, we use a lot of data and facts to illustrate the world. The rapid development of the network economy calls for the study of the source of the value source of the network economy and the pricing model which is suitable for the network shares. a definition is made as to whether the network is merely a tool, whether the network technology is productivity or production relations, whether the network economy can create value, and what is the network On the basis of our theory, this paper explains the three basic value sources of the network economy: the direct economy, the attention economy and the scale economy. Then we use the above-mentioned economic analysis of the source of the economic value of the network, firstly, according to the present stage, The classification of network enterprises, that is, network equipment provider, network operation provider, network access service provider (ISP), network content provider (ICP), and e-commerce five levels, have made the value creation respectively. Based on the traditional P/ E, the TEMA _ P/ E/ G pricing method is introduced and compared with the traditional P/ E. the analytical method of economics and the pricing model introduced above, Combined with the information on hand, a simple price analysis is carried out on the most famous e-commerce enterprise _ Amazon bookshop in the world. The paper is divided into five chapters. The main content and point of view of the chapters is as follows: Chapter one is the introduction, the first part mainly through a large number of facts and the display of the data, indicating the network The economy has come and becomes the inner driving factor to drive the emerging economy of the 21st century, so as to lead out the thesis's argument: the exploration and construction of the source of network economic value. The second part mainly introduces some research points on the network economy in the recent domestic economic circle, and the third part mainly introduces the subject, the method and the structure of the paper. The second chapter is mainly on the network The economic value source is the theoretical analysis on the basis of economics, Before the analysis of the value source of the network economy, the author first made a definition of several problems: not only is the network only a tool, the network technology is the productivity WP = 4 and the production relations? The network economy Can you create value to and what is the new concept of wealth in the network age. After defining the above problems, we will serve as the premise of our theory and in the second part the source of network economic value In the economic analysis of spring, the three basic value sources of the network economy are put forward: one, the direct economy, that is, the direct nature of the network economy It's more economical than the industrial economy The production and marketing system, which saves a large amount of resource consumption and transaction cost, is converted into a great source of value, and the attention is economy. zero-to-zero boundary cost The measurement of its value must focus on the standard of attention. It is the essence of the attention economy. With the gradual development of the Internet as the basic information platform of the information society, it will gain full control of attention resources, and it also means great value, the transfer of wealth............................................................................................................................ Ji. The text of the article The network economy is a typical scale-reward-increasing economy, which has two meanings: "The value of the Internet is equ"
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2000
【分类号】：F062.5
【引证文献】
相关硕士学位论文 前3条
1 伍可炳;高新技术公司价值评估[D];东北财经大学;2010年
2 李忠盛;我国高新技术企业价值评估研究[D];燕山大学;2012年
3 宋胜梅;电子商务企业风险投资价值研究[D];山西财经大学;2010年
本文编号：2485467
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