灰色关联分析在中国农村家庭碳排放影响因素分析中的应用

发布时间：2018-02-09 21:20

本文关键词： 农村家庭碳排放因子分析灰色关联分析　出处：《生态环境学报》2013年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：农村家庭碳排放影响因素分析的研究对于合理发展农村经济,有效制定农村减排政策具有重要的指导意义。根据IPCC参考方法、生活碳排放研究方法和投入产出基本方法,计算了1995—2010年中国大陆31省区农村人均家庭碳排放量。通过因子分析方法,剔除农村人均家庭碳排放量不显著相关的影响因素,利用灰色关联分析方法对影响农村人均家庭碳排放量的显著相关影响因素进行评价,得出不同驱动因子对碳排放的关联度。结果表明,(1)从时间上看,1995至2010年,农村家庭碳排放呈现出逐渐上升趋势,1995年农村的人均家庭排放量为C 0.170 t人-1,增加到2010年的0.504 t人-1,同比增长196.90%。(2)从空间看,东部地区的农村家庭碳排放远远高于中部、东北和西部地区的农村家庭碳排放。(3)从地区差异看,位于东部地区的上海市农村人均家庭碳排放远远高于位于西部地区的内蒙古,1995年上海市农村人均家庭碳排放为C 0.454 t人-1,而内蒙古为0.145 t人-1;2010年上海市农村人均家庭碳排放为C 1.351 t人-1,而内蒙古为0.498 t人-1。(4)利用灰色关联分析,经济水平指标中的农林牧渔总产值与农村人均家庭碳排放的关联度为最大,为0.982 4,因此对农村家庭碳排放的影响最大,而人口指标中的农村人口比例与农村人均家庭碳排放的关联度最小,为0.570 2,因此对农村家庭碳排放的影响最小。
[Abstract]:The analysis of the influencing factors of carbon emissions in rural households has important guiding significance for the rational development of rural economy and the effective formulation of rural emission reduction policies. According to the IPCC reference method, the research methods of carbon emissions in domestic life and the basic methods of input-output, and so on, The carbon emissions per rural households in 31 provinces and regions in mainland China from 1995 to 2010 were calculated. By factor analysis, the factors affecting the carbon emissions of rural households were excluded. Using the method of grey correlation analysis, the significant correlation factors affecting the carbon emissions of rural households were evaluated, and the correlation degree of different driving factors on carbon emissions was obtained. The results showed that: from 1995 to 2010, In 1995, the per capita household emissions in rural areas were C 0.170 t person--1, which increased to 0.504 t person--1 in 2010, an increase of 196.90.02.) from the spatial perspective, the carbon emissions of rural households in the eastern region were much higher than those in the central region. From the perspective of regional differences, rural households' carbon emissions. In 1995, the average household carbon emission in Shanghai was 0.145t / person, compared with 0.145t / person in Inner Mongolia in 1995, and in 2010, it was 0.145t / person / person in Shanghai. Household carbon emissions were C1.351 t person--1, while in Inner Mongolia were 0.498 t person-1.14). The correlation between the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and the per capita carbon emission of rural households was the largest (0.982 4), so it had the greatest impact on the carbon emissions of rural households. The correlation degree between the proportion of rural population and the carbon emissions of rural households is the least, which is 0.5702, so it has the least influence on the carbon emissions of rural households.
【作者单位】：兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室西部环境与气候变化研究院;中国科学院资源环境科学信息中心国家科学图书馆兰州分馆;
【基金】：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA05140100)
【分类号】：F224;X196;F320

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