基于博弈论的CDM项目碳排放权定价研究

发布时间：2018-02-24 20:13

本文关键词： CDM 碳排放权定价委托人-代理人模型　出处：《湖南大学》2010年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：《京都议定书》为碳定价提供了有力的参考基础,为了解决碳排放问题,引入了针对发达国家和发展中国家的清洁发展机制(Clean Development Mechanism,CDM),发达国家通过这一机制对发展中国家进行节能减排项目的投资和技术转让,换取自身所需的碳减排额度。从总量上看,中国是目前国际碳排放权市场中CERs的最大供应方,中国作为重量级的卖家,在参与CDM机制交易过程中,由于碳交易的市场和标准都在国外,遵循其游戏规则却没有掌握碳交易的定价权,处于碳价值链的低端位置,不得不接受外国碳交易机构设定的较低的碳价格。因此,对CDM下碳定价的研究,将有助于中国对国际碳市场的了解,能在一定程度上稳定碳市场,获得更多排放交易收入,不仅促进中国可持续发展,还对中国参与CDM项目中所涉及的核证减排量(CERs)价格的商定具有重要意义。本文从金融属性的货币性对碳排放权的涵义着手,阐述了碳排放权定价涉及的外部性和科斯理论,并总结了CDM中CERs三类定价方法的内涵和优缺点。由此,本文引入博弈论中的委托人-代理人理论四种模型,提出一套新的定价方法。然后介绍了全球碳市场的层次和碳排放权的种类,并对发达国家与发展中国家的CDM市场、发达国家的JI和EU ETS市场、自愿市场的实践活动进行了追根溯源,详细介绍了每类市场的结构及其所属的碳排放种类,而且从每类市场排放权的交易量和价格进行描述。接着本文根据CDM项目中发达国家与发展中国家定价情况,选定有不确定性且不可监督的委托人—代理人博弈模型。然后运用博弈论的方法考虑排放权交易参与者的相互影响和协议交易的各种情境,在CDM项目中发现了唯一的纳什均衡(发达国家投资CDM项目、发展中国家在CDM项目中努力工作)和CERs的均衡价值,并且得到两个结论:(1)在一个CDM项目中,当发达国家在合同中拥有所有的排放权的时候,发展中国家将会推卸。(2)当不存在套利交易的情况下,CDM项目中CERs的价值取决于碳排放市场价格( P )、CERs在发达国家和发展中国家之间的发达国家分配比例(γ)、发展中国家凭借其在CDM项目中的获得的技术再从发达国家其他项目获得的市场份额比率( m )、发达国家为CDM项目支付的初始成本( I )、当发展中国家在CDM项目中努力付出的时候获得CERs的可能性(α),其中P、m、I与CERs价格正相关,α、γ与CERs价格负相关。最后,文章从完善配套政策(政策引导)、推进人民币国际化(政府推动)、大力建设要素市场(增强支撑)和加强金融创新(低碳导向)等多个方面提出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:The Kyoto Protocol provides a strong reference basis for carbon pricing, in order to address carbon emissions, The Clean Development MechanismCDM for both developed and developing countries has been introduced, through which developed countries invest and transfer technology to developing countries for energy conservation and emission reduction projects in exchange for the carbon reduction credits they need. China is the largest supplier of CERs in the current international carbon emission market. As a heavyweight seller, China participates in the trading process of the CDM mechanism, because the market and standards of carbon trading are both abroad. Following its rules of the game but not grasping the pricing power of carbon trading, it is at the low end of the carbon value chain and has to accept the lower carbon price set by foreign carbon trading institutions. It will contribute to China's understanding of the international carbon market, stabilize the carbon market to a certain extent and generate more revenue from emissions trading. It will not only promote the sustainable development of China, It is also important for China to agree on the CERs price involved in the CDM project. This paper discusses the externality and Coase's theory of carbon emission right pricing from the monetary property of financial property, and summarizes the connotation, advantages and disadvantages of the three pricing methods of CERs in CDM. In this paper, four models of principal-agent theory in game theory are introduced, and a set of new pricing methods are proposed. Then, the levels of global carbon market and the types of carbon emission rights are introduced, and the CDM market in developed and developing countries is discussed. In the JI and EU ETS markets of developed countries, the practical activities of voluntary markets are traced back to the source, and the structure of each market and the types of carbon emissions to which it belongs are introduced in detail. And then this paper describes the volume and price of each type of market emission rights. Then, according to the pricing situation of developed and developing countries in the CDM project, The model of principal-agent game with uncertainty and unsupervised is selected. Then the game theory is used to consider the interaction of emission rights trading participants and the various scenarios of agreement trading. The unique Nash equilibrium (developed countries invest in CDM projects and developing countries work hard in CDM projects) and the equilibrium values of CERs are found in the CDM project, and two conclusions: 1) in a CDM project. When developed countries have all the emission rights in their contracts, The value of CERs in CERs projects depends on the market price of carbon emissions when there is no arbitrage trade. Market share ratio from other projects in developed countries with the technology acquired in CDM projects, initial costs paid by developed countries for CDM projects (I / O, when developing countries work hard on CDM projects). The possibility of obtaining CERs is positive correlation with CERs price, and negative correlation between 伪, 纬 and CERs price. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions from the following aspects: perfecting supporting policies (policy guidance), promoting RMB internationalization (the government promotes RMB internationalization), vigorously building factor market (strengthening support) and strengthening financial innovation (low carbon orientation) and so on.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：X196

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