武汉市环境库兹涅茨曲线模拟研究

发布时间：2018-02-24 21:17

本文关键词： 经济发展环境质量环境库兹涅茨曲线回归分析武汉市　出处：《华中科技大学》2007年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】： “环境库兹涅茨曲线(Environmental Kuznets Curve)”是指经济发展与环境质量之间的“倒U型”曲线关系,即随着经济发展和收入水平的提高,环境质量先恶化后好转。全文基于环境库兹涅茨曲线特征原理,运用统计学和计量经济学分析方法,以武汉市1986-2005年环境质量为研究对象,借助SPSS、Eviews和Excel软件系统,分析研究了武汉市大气环境质量和工业“三废”排放量与武汉市经济发展之间的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征。文章在总结了环境库兹涅茨曲线研究现状的基础上,根据武汉市1986年以来经济与环境变化状况,重点分析了武汉市产业结构和能源结构演变趋势,及其与武汉市空气质量、工业“三废”和水质等环境因子之间的关系。文章对武汉市大气环境污染物(SO_2、NOx、TSP)、空气污染综合指数P和工业“三废”相关指标与反映经济发展各因子之间的关系进行了分析。采用统计学分析方法,建立各环境指标与反映武汉市经济发展各因子之间的拟合最优模型。模型分析结果表明,武汉市大气环境质量相关指标:SO2浓度年日均值、NOx浓度年日均值、总悬浮物TSP浓度年日均值和空气综合污染指数P,除NOx浓度年日均值可用以人均GDP作为自变量的传统环境库兹涅茨曲线三次模型拟合外,其余三个指标除了和人均GDP存在相关关系外,还和产业结构、能源结构和机动车辆拥有量等因素密切相关。SO2的年日均浓度和人均GDP呈正相关,和第三产业占国民经济的比重呈负相关;TSP的年日均浓度和人均GDP呈负相关,和煤炭占总能源的比重呈正相关;空气污染综合指数P和人均GDP呈负相关,与机动车辆拥有量和煤炭占总能源的比重呈正相关;武汉市六种工业“三废”指标,除工业固体废物排放量外,其余都可以用以人均GDP为自变量的传统环境库兹涅茨曲线模型模拟。除工业废气排放量与工业固体废物排放量呈增长趋势外,其余指标的排放量都呈现出减少的趋势,说明武汉市工业环境污染状况总体上得到一定的控制。文章最后从影响武汉市环境库兹涅茨曲线的主要因素着手,提出了相关改善武汉市环境状况的方法与措施。主要有保证经济持续健康发展、调整产业结构、调整能源结构、加强对机动车辆污染物排放监督与管理、提高科技水平,加大环保投入、大力推行清洁生产、加强环境管理力度和运用经济手段保护环境这几个方面。
[Abstract]:"Environmental Kuznets Curves" refers to the "inverted U-shaped" curve between economic development and environmental quality, that is, with economic development and rising income levels. Based on the characteristic principle of environmental Kuznets curve, using statistics and econometrics analysis method, the environmental quality of Wuhan City from 1986 to 2005 is taken as the research object, with the help of SPSS Eviews and Excel software system. The characteristics of the environmental Kuznets curve between the atmospheric environmental quality of Wuhan and the emissions of industrial "three wastes" and the economic development of Wuhan are analyzed and studied. On the basis of summarizing the current research situation of environmental Kuznets curve, according to the economic and environmental changes in Wuhan since 1986, the paper emphatically analyzes the evolution trend of industrial structure and energy structure of Wuhan and its relationship with air quality in Wuhan. The relationship between environmental factors such as industrial "three wastes" and water quality. This paper analyzes the relationship between air pollution pollution, air pollution index P and industrial "three wastes", which reflect various factors of economic development in Wuhan. A fitting optimal model between the environmental indexes and the factors reflecting the economic development of Wuhan is established. The results of the model analysis show that the annual daily average of the concentration of so _ 2 and the annual daily average of no _ x concentration in Wuhan are the relative indexes of atmospheric environmental quality in Wuhan. The annual average value of total suspended matter TSP concentration and the air pollution index P, except that the annual daily average of NOx concentration can be fitted by the traditional Kuznets curve cubic model with per capita GDP as independent variable. The other three indexes not only have correlation with GDP per capita, but also have a positive correlation with industrial structure, energy structure and vehicle ownership. The daily average concentration of SO2 is positively correlated with GDP per capita. The annual average concentration of tsp is negatively correlated with the per capita GDP and the proportion of coal to total energy, and the air pollution index P is negatively correlated with the per capita GDP, while the ratio of coal to total energy is negatively correlated with the proportion of the tertiary industry in the national economy. There is a positive correlation with the ownership of motor vehicles and the proportion of coal in the total energy. In addition to the discharge of industrial solid waste, there are six industrial "three wastes" indicators in Wuhan. The rest can be simulated by the Kuznets curve model of traditional environment with per capita GDP as independent variable. Except for the increasing trend of industrial exhaust gas emissions and industrial solid waste emissions, the emissions of other indicators show a decreasing trend. It shows that the pollution of industrial environment in Wuhan is controlled to a certain extent. Finally, from the main factors affecting the environmental Kuznets curve of Wuhan City, the paper puts forward the methods and measures to improve the environmental situation of Wuhan City. The main measures are to ensure the sustained and healthy development of the economy, to adjust the industrial structure, and to adjust the energy structure. We should strengthen the supervision and management of pollutant emission from motor vehicles, raise the level of science and technology, increase investment in environmental protection, vigorously promote cleaner production, strengthen environmental management and use economic means to protect the environment.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2007
【分类号】：X196

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