世界初级产品价格变化趋势:理论与经验研究

发布时间：2018-02-25 21:38

本文关键词： 初级产品相对价格普雷维什-辛格假说　出处：《财贸经济》2011年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文基于1900-2007年间24类初级产品数据,采用最近发展起来的单整稳健趋势检验模型分析了各类产品相对价格的变化趋势,并检验了"普雷维什-辛格假说"在长期中的表现形式。研究发现,在结构断点之前,绝大多数初级产品的相对价格得到改善,而断点之后多数产品的相对价格呈下降趋势,其中又以食品类产品价格下降趋势尤为明显,并且在不同模型下的结论保持一致。综合价格指数和非食品类价格指数在不同模型下的显著性有所差异,但在方向上也呈现出下降趋势。这些发现在很大程度上支持了"普雷维什-辛格假说"。进一步对相对价格波动的周期分解显示,各类初级产品价格波动的长期周期具有较强的持续性,并且在价格波动中起主导作用,从而意味着任何致力于平滑价格波动的政策将具有很强的时滞性。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of 24 kinds of primary products from 1900 to 2007, this paper analyzes the change trend of relative prices of all kinds of products by using the recently developed single integrated robust trend test model. The study also examined the expression of the Prevish-Singh hypothesis in the long run. The study found that the relative prices of most primary products improved before the structural breakpoints, while the relative prices of most products declined after the breakpoints. Among them, the downward trend of food product price is especially obvious, and the conclusion under different models is consistent. There are significant differences between comprehensive price index and non-food price index under different models. But there is also a downward trend in direction. These findings largely support the Prevish-Singh hypothesis. The long-term cycle of price fluctuation of all kinds of primary products has strong persistence and plays a leading role in price fluctuation, which means that any policy devoted to smoothing price volatility will have a strong time-lag.
【作者单位】：南京林业大学经济管理学院;
【分类号】：F224;F014.3;F746

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