基于专利的新兴技术商业化潜力评价研究

发布时间：2018-02-25 23:35

本文关键词： 新兴技术商业化专利技术轨道　出处：《北京工业大学》2009年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】： 当今世界,科技日新月异,新兴技术层出不穷。面对海量的新兴技术组成的技术池,如何辨别新兴技术的商业化潜力,是理论与实践中的一个重要问题。目前,国内外关于新兴技术商业化潜力评价方面的研究还比较少,用科学的方法来评选这些新兴技术,是本文研究的目标。本文将理论、模型与实证分析融为一体,从专利分析的角度对新兴技术商业化潜力进行判断与分析,建立了基于专利的新兴技术商业化的四个阶段的评价框架:首先是专利数量分析,选择处于快速成长期和成熟期的技术。其次是基于专利引用指标的技术轨道分析,区分技术的发展阶段:成长、成熟、老化,针对不同阶段有以下三种不同的分析方法:成长期的技术进入技术机会分析阶段;成熟期的技术进入技术老化窗口期的判断阶段;老化期的技术进入替代技术的辨别阶段,并选择具有较大技术机会的替代技术。再次,针对上一阶段挑选出的技术机会较大的新兴技术,结合专利引用指标判断此领域的技术更新速度,由此推断新兴技术替代老化技术(技术跃迁)的时机。上述步骤从新兴技术发展、新兴技术商业化的一般规律出发,考虑到专利对于技术商业化的导向作用,通过对专利指标的统计分析去把握新兴技术的商业化潜力。通过对燃料电池相关领域的实证研究,较好的验证了本文提出的基于专利分析的评价框架。
[Abstract]:In today's world, science and technology are changing with each passing day, and emerging technologies are emerging in endlessly. In the face of the massive technological pool of emerging technologies, how to identify the commercial potential of emerging technologies is an important issue in theory and practice. There are few researches on the evaluation of commercialization potential of emerging technologies at home and abroad. The aim of this paper is to select these new technologies by scientific methods. In this paper, the theory, model and empirical analysis are combined to judge and analyze the commercialization potential of emerging technologies from the perspective of patent analysis. The evaluation framework of four stages of commercialization of patent-based emerging technologies is established: first, patent quantitative analysis, selection of technology in rapid growth and maturity, and second, technology track analysis based on patent citation index. There are three different analysis methods for different stages: the technology in the growth stage enters the technical opportunity analysis stage, the technology in the mature stage enters the judgment stage of the window period of the technology aging; Aging technology enters the stage of identification of alternative technologies and selects alternative technologies with greater technological opportunities. Thirdly, for emerging technologies with greater technological opportunities selected from the previous stage, Combined with patent citation index to judge the technology renewal speed in this field, and infer the opportunity of emerging technology to replace aging technology (technology transition). The above steps proceed from the development of emerging technologies and the general rules of commercialization of emerging technologies, taking into account the guiding role of patents in the commercialization of technologies, Through the statistical analysis of the patent index to grasp the commercialization potential of emerging technologies, through the empirical research on fuel cell related fields, the evaluation framework based on patent analysis proposed in this paper is well verified.
【学位授予单位】：北京工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2009
【分类号】：F204;F062.4;F224

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