基于倾向值匹配法的区域生态补偿绩效评估研究

发布时间：2018-05-26 16:36

本文选题：倾向值分析 + 熵值法　；参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2015年03期

【摘要】：从上世纪90年代起,中国在全国和各区域范围内实施了大量以生态补偿为理论基础的环境保护项目。同时,伴随着生态补偿项目的实施,生态补偿的相关研究也在不断推进。目前,中国对于生态补偿的研究主要集中在理论体系的构建、机制的探索、补偿对象、补偿方式以及补偿金确定等补偿前阶段的研究,而较少涉及对现有补偿项目绩效评估等补偿后阶段的研究,特别是缺少标准经济学范式的绩效评估研究。因此,本文在提出了区域生态补偿绩效评价的必要性与理论意义的基础上,通过引入熵值法、倾向值匹配法、面板数据回归方法等经济学技术对区域生态补偿绩效进行评估。本文以辽东山区生态补偿财政项目为案例,运用熵值法对经济、社会、生态状况相近的27县综合生态绩效进行计算、比较,经过统计分析初步发现绩效最好的县均是政策影响县,但也存在诸如清河、灯塔、弓长岭等补偿县的生态绩效并没有较大提升;通过对补偿政策组与非补偿政策组以及按行政区划分的生态绩效比较发现,补偿政策以及行政归属对生态绩效影响是显著的;运用面板回归方法,发现在控制了行政区划、时间、环保投资和森林资源现有存量后,补偿政策的效应为0.475。为避免样本选择问题,文章引入Kernel内核匹配法得出平均处理效应为0.783。两方法均支持补偿政策有效的结论。最后,为考察生态补偿绩效影响因素,对补偿政策组样本进行面板回归并与全样本回归结果进行比较。研究认为,行政区划与财政赤字占比分别在1%水平上显著,且财政赤字占比效应为正。由于现阶段生态补偿政策依然包含过多行政色彩,所以第二产业占比、林业占比、人均GDP等经济因素只有人均GDP在10%水平上显著。另外,通过年份时间变量的引入,考察了各年平均生态绩效的变化情况,并发现政策效应在逐渐趋于收敛,这也从另一个角度证实了补偿政策的实际效果。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, a large number of environmental protection projects based on ecological compensation have been implemented in China. At the same time, with the implementation of ecological compensation projects, ecological compensation research is also advancing. At present, the research on ecological compensation in China is mainly focused on the theoretical system construction, the exploration of mechanism, the compensation object, the compensation method and the determination of compensation funds. However, there is little research on the post-compensation stage, such as the performance evaluation of existing compensation projects, especially the lack of standard economic paradigm of performance evaluation. Therefore, on the basis of putting forward the necessity and theoretical significance of regional ecological compensation performance evaluation, this paper evaluates the performance of regional ecological compensation by introducing entropy method, tendency value matching method, panel data regression method and other economic techniques. Taking the fiscal project of ecological compensation in eastern Liaoning mountain area as a case, the paper calculates and compares the comprehensive ecological performance of 27 counties with similar economic, social and ecological status by using entropy method. Through the statistical analysis, it is found that the best performance of the counties are policy impact counties, but there are also such as Qinghe, lighthouse, Gongchangling compensation county ecological performance has not been greatly improved; By comparing the ecological performance of compensation policy group, non-compensation policy group and administrative district division, it is found that the compensation policy and administrative ownership have significant impact on ecological performance, and the panel regression method is used to control the administrative division. After time, environmental protection investment and existing stock of forest resources, the effect of compensation policy is 0. 475. In order to avoid the problem of sample selection, the Kernel kernel matching method is introduced to get the average processing effect of 0.783. Both methods support the conclusion that the compensation policy is effective. Finally, in order to investigate the influencing factors of ecological compensation performance, the panel regression of compensation policy group samples was carried out and the results were compared with the full sample regression results. The results show that the ratio of administrative division and fiscal deficit is significant at 1% level respectively, and the effect of fiscal deficit ratio is positive. Because the ecological compensation policy still contains too much administrative color at present, the ratio of the secondary industry, forestry and GDP per capita is only 10% of the per capita GDP. In addition, through the introduction of the year time variable, the change of the average ecological performance of each year is investigated, and it is found that the policy effect tends to converge gradually, which confirms the actual effect of the compensation policy from another angle.
【作者单位】：大连理工大学管理与经济学部;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于跨区域水环境整治的流域生态补偿机制研究:以辽河为例”(编号:70973013) 辽宁省财政科研基金项目“辽宁东部生态补偿绩效评价研究”(编号:12C004);辽宁省财政科研基金项目“辽宁滨海湿地生态补偿机制研究”(编号:14C029) 辽宁经济社会发展立项课题“辽宁滨海湿地生态补偿标准与运行机制研究”(编号:2015lslktzijjx-10)
【分类号】：X196

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