中国入境旅游发展的影响因素研究——基于面板分位数回归的省际经验证据

发布时间：2018-02-04 09:02

本文关键词： 入境旅游旅游业分位数回归　出处：《山西财经大学学报》2013年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章基于1990～2010年我国内地31个省级行政区(以下简称省)的省际面板数据,利用分位数回归方法研究了旅游和经济发展主要指标对入境旅游发展的影响。得到的结论如下:第一,除了旅游从业人员对旅游外汇收入和入境旅游人数响应等显著为负以外,旅游企业固定资产对旅游外汇收入、旅行社和星级饭店、入境旅游人数均表现出显著的正向响应;第二,除了商品零售总额对旅游外汇收入和入境旅游人数响应显著为正以外,各省GDP只在较低分位点处对旅游外汇收入和入境旅游人数有显著的正向响应,园林绿地面积和各省人口数只在较高分位点处对旅游外汇收入有显著的正向响应;第三,入境旅游发展对经济发展的响应程度在力度上普遍强于对旅游发展的响应,随着入境旅游的发展,前者的力度总体递减,后者的力度逐渐增加;第四,随着入境旅游的发展,入境旅游对旅游发展的响应逐渐增加,对经济发展的响应则先上升后下降。
[Abstract]:This paper is based on the interprovincial panel data of 31 provincial administrative regions (hereinafter referred to as provinces) in mainland China from 1990 to 2010. The effects of main indicators of tourism and economic development on the development of inbound tourism are studied by quantile regression method. The conclusions are as follows: first. In addition to the negative response of tourism employees to foreign exchange income and the number of inbound tourists, the fixed assets of tourism enterprises have significant negative effects on foreign exchange earnings, travel agencies and star-rated hotels. The number of inbound tourists showed a significant positive response; Secondly, except for the positive response of total retail sales to foreign exchange earnings and inbound tourism, the GDP of each province only has a significant positive response to foreign exchange earnings and inbound tourism at lower loci. The green space area and the population of each province only have a significant positive response to the foreign exchange income of tourism at the higher score. Third, the response degree of inbound tourism development to economic development is generally stronger than that of tourism development. With the development of inbound tourism, the intensity of the former generally decreases, while the latter increases gradually. In 4th, with the development of inbound tourism, the response of inbound tourism to tourism development increased gradually, while the response to economic development rose first and then decreased.
【作者单位】：北京第二外国语学院旅游管理学院;中国矿业大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“金砖国家技术创新政策比较研究”(12CGL015) 教育部人文社科项目“研发国际化背景下中印技术创新政策比较研究”(12YJC630085) 北京市优秀人才培养资助项目(2012D005008000001) 北京市哲学社会科学重大项目“北京建设世界一流旅游城市研究”(11ZDA09) 国家自然科学基金项目(71073178) 中国矿业大学人才引进项目(2011RC20)
【分类号】：F592;F224
【正文快照】： 一、引言由于我国独特的自然风光、人文景观以及其中蕴含的巨大商机,入境旅游产业成为我国开发最早、成就最大的服务贸易市场,发展潜力巨大。以旅游外汇收入为例,1978年只有2.63亿美元,到1990年就增加到22.93亿美元,2010年更是达到519.76亿美李凡1,吉生保2,章东明1,时如义2(1

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