我国森林公园旅游效率及其影响因素

发布时间：2018-09-01 09:44

【摘要】：【目的】以我国大陆31个省(区、市)森林公园为对象,研究其旅游效率,为我国森林公园旅游效率的提升提供参考。【方法】首先,基于DEA的效率测算方法,选择旅游收入和旅游人数为产出变量,森林公园面积、当年投入资金和职工人数为投入变量,利用数据包络分析工具DEAP2.0版本软件中投入导向的规模报酬不变的效率测算模型,以国家林业局官方网站公布的我国大陆各省森林公园数据为依据,测算各省森林公园2009—2013年各年不变规模下的旅游效率。然后,基于供给需求理论,选择森林公园所在省级区域的人口密度、城镇化率、人均GDP、高级别旅游资源密度、森林公园密度、高等级公路密度以及森林公园的森林覆盖率、资金投入强度、劳动力投入强度等为自变量,旅游效率为因变量,建立基于面板数据的多元线性回归模型,定量分析影响森林公园旅游效率的因素,其中回归分析模型中的自变量数据来自于中国统计年鉴,因变量数据来自于第一步的测算结果。【结果】1)我国森林公园旅游效率从2011年开始逐年提升,但各省区间森林公园的旅游效率存在较大差异,部分省区各年份森林公园的旅游效率存在较大波动。2)利用Stata 12.0软件对回归分析模型依次进行个体效应检验、时间效应检验、Hausman检验及异方差稳健检验,得出模型存在个体效应和时间效应,且随机效应效果优于固定效应,最终确定采用双向随机效应模型(显著水平为5%)。3)利用异方差稳健的GLS估计方法对所建立的随机效应模型进行参数估计,得出人口密度和林地森林覆盖率(5%的显著水平)、城镇化率(10%的显著水平)对森林公园的旅游效率有显著的正向影响;人均GDP和资金投入强度对森林公园的旅游效率有显著的负向影响(5%的显著水平);高级别旅游资源密度、森林公园密度、高等级公路密度对森林公园旅游效率产生不显著的正向影响(10%的显著水平);劳动力投入强度对森林公园旅游效率产生不显著的负向影响。【结论】2009—2013年,中国森林公园资源的旅游利用效率有显著的提升,但各省之间森林公园的效率存在较大的差异,部分省份森林公园效率的年度波动较大;地区人口密度、城镇化比率、旅游资源水平、森林公园密度、交通发展水平对森林公园的效率起着正向的影响作用,而资金投入密度对森林公园的效率起着显著的负相影响,这一点与人们关于森林公园资本投资作用的认识相悖。本文提出了提升我国森林公园效率的一些建议,指出了需要进一步跟踪研究的问题。
[Abstract]:[objective] to study the tourism efficiency of forest parks in 31 provinces and cities in mainland China, and to provide a reference for improving the tourism efficiency of forest parks in China. [methods] first of all, the efficiency measurement method based on DEA is proposed. This paper selects tourism income and tourist population as output variables, forest park area, investment fund and staff number as input variables, and uses the efficiency model of input-oriented scale reward invariant in DEAP2.0 version of data Envelopment Analysis tool. Based on the data of the provincial forest parks published on the official website of the State Forestry Administration of China, the tourism efficiency of the forest parks in each province in the same scale in 2009-2013 was calculated. Then, based on the theory of supply and demand, the population density, urbanization rate, GDP, per capita high tourism resource density, forest park density, highway density and forest park coverage are selected. The investment intensity of capital and labor force are independent variables and tourism efficiency is dependent variable. A multivariate linear regression model based on panel data is established to quantitatively analyze the factors that affect the tourism efficiency of forest parks. Among them, the independent variable data in the regression analysis model come from the China Statistical Yearbook, and the dependent variable data are from the first step of the calculation results. [results] 1) the tourism efficiency of forest parks in China has been increasing year by year since 2011. However, the tourism efficiency of forest parks varies greatly between provinces and regions, and the tourism efficiency of forest parks in some provinces and autonomous regions fluctuates greatly in each year.) the regression analysis model is tested by Stata 12.0 software in order of individual effect. Time effect test, Hausman test and heteroscedasticity robust test, show that the model has individual effect and time effect, and the effect of random effect is better than that of fixed effect. The bidirectional stochastic effect model (significant level is 5%) is used to estimate the parameters of the established stochastic effect model using heteroscedasticity robust GLS estimation method. The results showed that population density and forest cover (significant level of 5%) and urbanization rate (significant level of 10%) had significant positive effects on the tourism efficiency of forest parks. The per capita GDP and the intensity of investment have significant negative effects on the tourism efficiency of forest parks (significant level of 5%), the density of high-level tourism resources, the density of forest parks, High-grade highway density has no significant positive impact on forest park tourism efficiency (10% significant level), labor input intensity has no significant negative impact on forest park tourism efficiency. [conclusion] 2009-2013, The tourism utilization efficiency of forest parks in China has been improved significantly, but there are great differences in the efficiency of forest parks among different provinces. The annual fluctuation of the efficiency of forest parks in some provinces is large, the regional population density, the rate of urbanization, the regional population density, the rate of urbanization, and so on. The level of tourism resources, the density of forest parks and the level of traffic development have a positive effect on the efficiency of forest parks, while the density of investment has a significant negative impact on the efficiency of forest parks. This is contrary to people's understanding of the role of forest park capital investment. This paper puts forward some suggestions for improving the efficiency of forest parks in China, and points out the problems that need to be further followed up.
【作者单位】：福建农林大学管理学院;
【基金】：福建省软科学项目“闽台入境外国旅游市场发展比较与合作开发研究”(2013R0013)
【分类号】：F592

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