农业上市公司投资风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-01-13 01:03

  本文关键词：农业上市公司投资风险评价研究　出处：《海南大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 投资风险评价 农业上市公司 突变级数法 主成分分析 风险规避

【摘要】：农业是我国国民经济发展的基础,其发展离不开投资。由于农业的弱质性,受自然环境、宏观经济、市场状况及企业内部运营等多方面因素的影响,导致了农业上市公司投资风险影响其发展。建立关于农业上市公司投资风险的量化分析模型并为政府决策提供支撑,对我国农业现代化发展具有重要意义。 本文以综合评价、农业企业风险管理和农业企业风险控制理论为基础,采用突变级数法对农业上市公司投资风险进行综合评价。研究结论：(1)自然灾害是导致农业上市公司投资风险的最强影响因子,高达38.99%,说明我国农业上市公司抵抗自然灾害的能力仍不足。(2)在农业上市公司内部风险因素分析中,各财务指标风险因素之和高达83.89%,说明财务风险是农业上市公司投资面临的主要内部风险。管理风险和技术风险之和为16.12%,说明农业上市公司投资风险中管理和技术研发能力的重要性越发突出。(3)波动性分析发现,农产品受市场价格波动影响较大。农业上市公司内部管理能力、技术能力和财务能力的综合方差最小,说明其对农业上市公司投资风险的内部影响机理具有持续性特点。(4)各地域农业上市公司投资风险水平基本相同,农业上市公司整体分布零散,个别范围相对集中,与自然地理分布趋于一致。个别农业上市公司之间投资风险水平出现明显差异主要受各地区不同自然环境的影响。 本文可能创新之处：(1)基于前人研究成果和我国农业上市公司投资运行实际,构建了较为全面的农业上市公司投资风险评价指标体系,对我国农业上市公司投资风险进行量化研究,弥补了对农业上市公司投资风险定量分析的不足。(2)在构建农业上市公司投资风险评价指标体系过程中,将农业产业的弱质性考虑在内,对自然灾害因素进行量化评估,有利于全面评价农业上市公司投资风险,弥补对农业特殊性产业评价分析的不足。(3)在规范分析与实证分析相结合的综合评价结论基础上,提出了针对农业上市公司投资风险管理的具体应对措施。 全文是在假定政局稳定前提下对农业上市公司投资风险进行评价研究。缺失数据采用均值替代方法。同时需要指出的是,本次研究未将农业上市公司进出口贸易及法律风险要素考虑在内,可能会对最终评价结果产生一定程度影响。更加全面的模型和投资风险评估体系研究将在以后的工作中进一步展开。
[Abstract]:Agriculture is the basis of the development of our national economy, its development can not be separated from investment, because of the weak nature of agriculture, by the natural environment, macroeconomic, market conditions and the internal operation of enterprises and other factors. The establishment of a quantitative analysis model of the investment risk of agricultural listed companies and the support for government decision making is of great significance to the development of agricultural modernization in China. This paper is based on the theory of comprehensive evaluation, risk management of agricultural enterprises and risk control of agricultural enterprises. The research conclusion is that natural disaster is the most influential factor of agricultural listed companies' investment risk, which is as high as 38.99%. It shows that the ability of agricultural listed companies to resist natural disasters is still insufficient.) in the analysis of internal risk factors of agricultural listed companies, the sum of risk factors of each financial index is as high as 83.89%. Financial risk is the main internal risk faced by agricultural listed companies. The sum of management risk and technical risk is 16.12%. It shows that the importance of management and technology R & D ability in the investment risk of agricultural listed companies is more and more prominent. The volatility analysis shows that agricultural products are greatly affected by market price fluctuations. The comprehensive variance of technical ability and financial ability is the smallest, which shows that the internal influence mechanism of the investment risk of agricultural listed company has persistent characteristics. 4) the level of investment risk of agricultural listed company in different regions is basically the same. The whole distribution of agricultural listed companies is scattered and individual scope is relatively concentrated. The difference of investment risk level among individual agricultural listed companies is mainly influenced by different natural environment in different regions. Based on the previous research results and the actual investment operation of agricultural listed companies in China, this paper constructs a more comprehensive evaluation index system of investment risk of agricultural listed companies. The quantitative study on the investment risk of agricultural listed companies in China makes up for the deficiency of quantitative analysis of investment risk of agricultural listed companies.) in the process of constructing the evaluation index system of investment risk of agricultural listed companies. Taking the weakness of agricultural industry into account, the quantitative evaluation of natural disaster factors is beneficial to the overall evaluation of the investment risk of agricultural listed companies. To make up for the shortage of agricultural industry evaluation and analysis.) based on the comprehensive evaluation conclusion of the combination of normative analysis and empirical analysis. The paper puts forward the concrete measures to deal with the investment risk management of agricultural listed companies. The full text is to evaluate the investment risk of agricultural listed companies on the premise of political stability. The missing data adopt the method of mean value substitution. At the same time, it needs to be pointed out. This study does not take into account the import and export trade and legal risk factors of agricultural listed companies. A more comprehensive model and investment risk assessment system will be further developed in the future.
【学位授予单位】：海南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F324;F302.6

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