我国主要粮食作物产量影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-01-13 07:31

本文关键词：我国主要粮食作物产量影响因素分析　出处：《河北科技师范学院》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

更多相关文章： 粮食产量 灰色关联 主成分 贡献率

【摘要】：我国是一个农业大国,农业的经济发展离不开粮食的安全生产,粮食乃国民生存之本,所以粮食产量的波动直接影响国民经济的波动,因此,中国粮食安全问题深受各国的重视。近年来国内针对三大作物产量综合性研究的学者们较少,几乎是对单一粮食产量或整体粮食产量影响因素的研究,所以本文将剖析1994-2012年影响我国主要粮食水稻、小麦、玉米产量的关键要素,以最大潜力挖掘三大粮食作物的有效增产技术,实现粮食基本自给的方针,努力提高粮食综合生产能力,确保国民口粮安全阈值。本文最先回顾了改革开放以来我国粮食总产量的变化情况,依此分析我国粮食安全生产存在耕地、水源、人力等资源的匮乏、农民老龄化严重、农业科技水平的薄弱、农业基础设施建设的滞后、种粮积极性减退、种粮知识及文化素质不高等问题。随后介绍了灰色关联分析法中关联系数、关联度的意义及计算,建立邓氏关联度计算模型,对选取1994-2012年的10个影响因素计算关联系数及关联度,并进行关联度排序,结果表明:有效灌溉面积是影响主要作物产量的重要因素,其次是播种面积和化肥施用量。同时随着农用机械投入的不断增加,弥补劳动力减少的缺口,自然灾害对我国主要粮食作物生产的危害程度在不断减弱,粮食生产过程中抵御灾害能力逐步提高。接下来系统介绍了主成分分析的原理和步骤,利用该原理,对中国粮食产量选取的9个影响因素(忽略农村用电因素)进行主成分分析,得到了三个主成分:人工投入要素(有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量、农用机械总动力、劳动力付出)自然灾害是中国粮食生产的主要因素之一,其中化肥施用量影响最为重要。最后依据结论,提出安全性、保护性、时效性的粮食生产建议。
[Abstract]:China is a large agricultural country, agricultural economic development can not be separated from the safe production of grain, grain is the basis of national survival, so the fluctuation of grain production directly affects the fluctuation of the national economy, therefore. The issue of food security in China is paid great attention to by many countries. In recent years, there are few scholars in China to study the comprehensive research on the yield of the three major crops, which is almost the study of the single grain yield or the factors affecting the overall grain yield. Therefore, this paper will analyze the key factors that affect the yield of main grain rice, wheat and corn in China from 1994 to 2012, so as to explore the effective yield increasing technology of the three major grain crops with maximum potential. This paper first reviews the changes of total grain output in China since the reform and opening up to the outside world, in order to improve the comprehensive grain production capacity and ensure the national food ration safety threshold. According to this analysis, there are shortages of cultivated land, water resources and human resources in food security production in China, the aging of farmers is serious, the level of agricultural science and technology is weak, the construction of agricultural infrastructure is lagging behind, and the enthusiasm for grain planting is decreasing. The paper introduces the correlation coefficient, the significance and calculation of the correlation degree in the grey relational analysis method, and establishes the calculation model of Deng's correlation degree. The correlation coefficient and correlation degree were calculated from 1994 to 2012. The results showed that the effective irrigated area was an important factor affecting the yield of main crops. Secondly, planting area and fertilizer application amount. At the same time, with the increase of agricultural machinery input, to make up for the shortage of labor force, the harm of natural disasters to the production of main food crops in China is weakening. In the process of grain production, the ability to resist disasters is gradually improved. Then, the principle and steps of principal component analysis are introduced systematically, and the principle is used. Based on the principal component analysis of 9 influencing factors of grain yield selection in China (neglecting the rural electric factor), three principal components were obtained: artificial input elements (effective irrigation area, chemical fertilizer application rate). Natural disaster is one of the main factors of grain production in China, in which the application of chemical fertilizer is the most important. Finally, according to the conclusion, the safety and protection are put forward. Timely grain production suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：河北科技师范学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F326.11

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