基于籽棉交易价格分析的新疆棉花目标价格试点工作改进研究

发布时间：2018-01-13 08:20

本文关键词：基于籽棉交易价格分析的新疆棉花目标价格试点工作改进研究　出处：《中国农业资源与区划》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：[目的]已有研究对目标价格政策的分析具有较强的启发意义,但对籽棉交易价格方面的研究较少。文章通过实证数据分析影响籽棉交易价格的相关因素,试图找到植棉农户交易风险的重要变量。[方法]分区间统计新疆28个县市1 140份交易数据,使用分位数回归模型对整个数据样本进行解析,并采用bootstrap方法对籽棉交易价格进行分位数回归,进一步解释各因素对籽棉交易价格的影响。[结果](1)随着分位点的提高,籽棉交易数量对籽棉交易价格的影响程度呈现出先下降后上升的"U型"趋势,交易规模扩大对籽棉交易价格提升的作用较为明显;(2)在0.7分位点以前,有中介对籽棉交易价格的影响程度较为稳定;(3)随着分位点的提高,南疆对籽棉交易价格的影响程度越来越大;(4)在低分位点籽棉交易等级对籽棉交易价格的影响具有不确定性;(5)随着籽棉交易的进行,籽棉交易价格与籽棉交易时间呈现出显著的负相关关系。[结论]籽棉交易价格会因各种因素影响而发生变化,其中单个农户籽棉交易数量的提高会有利于单笔籽棉交易价格的提高,交易时间与籽棉交易价格具有明显负向关系;南北疆籽棉交易价格因地域不同而出现差别;棉花交易等级对籽棉交易价格形成具有显著影响,但同一长度不同等级籽棉交易价格基本一致;不同棉花交易主体对籽棉交易价格的形成具有较大影响。
[Abstract]:[Objective] the existing studies have a strong enlightening significance to the analysis of target price policy, but the research on seed cotton trading price is less. This paper analyzes the related factors of seed cotton trading price through empirical data. This paper tries to find the important variables of the transaction risk of cotton planting farmers. [Methods] 1,140 transaction data of 28 counties and cities in Xinjiang were analyzed by quantile regression model. The quantile regression of seed cotton trading price was carried out by bootstrap method to explain the influence of various factors on seed cotton trading price. [Results (1) with the increase of the loci, the effect of seed cotton trading quantity on seed cotton trading price showed a "U type" trend of first decreasing and then rising. The effect of the expansion of the trading scale on the price increase of seed cotton is obvious. 2) before the 0.7 locus, the influence of intermediary on the price of seed cotton was relatively stable; 3) with the increase of the loci, the influence of southern Xinjiang on the price of seed cotton is increasing. (4) the effect of seed cotton trading grade on seed cotton trading price is uncertain. 5) with the seed cotton trading, seed cotton trading price and seed cotton trading time showed a significant negative correlation. [Conclusion: the price of seed cotton will change with the influence of various factors, and the increase of the quantity of seed cotton trading by single farmer will benefit the increase of price of single seed cotton. The trading time has an obvious negative relationship with the price of seed cotton. The price of seed cotton in North and South Xinjiang is different because of different regions. Cotton trading grade has a significant effect on seed cotton trading price formation, but the same length of seed cotton trading price is basically the same; Different cotton trading subjects have great influence on the formation of seed cotton trading price.
【作者单位】：新疆农业大学经济与贸易学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“棉花市场化改革对新疆南疆少数民族植棉区农户收入影响及经济政治效应研究”(15CMZ042)
【分类号】：F323.7
【正文快照】： 0引言2014年是新疆目标价格试点工作的启动年,在目标价格既定的情况下,新疆棉区采价期内(当年9~11月)棉花平均市场交易价格成为确定植棉农户补贴金额的基础。根据实施方案,补贴资金总额根据目标价格,2014年为1.980 0万元/t(折籽棉价格为8.7元/kg),2015年为1.910 0万元/t(折籽

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