中国粮食安全及其对策的探索

发布时间：2018-04-12 06:13

本文选题：中国粮食安全 + 谷物生产　；参考：《南京大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文试图深入分析中国的粮食安全问题。自1996年以来,中国中央政府看重粮食安全问题,并把许多资源及时间集中于设计最优的解决方案。到目前为止,中国采取了几个重要措施,例如保护耕地面积、控制城市面积的迅猛增长、鼓励农业技术的研究与开发、培训农业劳动力等等。这些项目已经取得了较好的效果,但是中国社会的发展,即城市化、收入增加导致的饮食结构的改变、人口的增加等因素继续阻碍着粮食安全问题的解决。这项研究通过谷物的需求与供给两方面分析来预测中国未来粮食安全前景。首先,根据历史潮流,笔者预测中国对谷物的未来净需求——包括直接需求又包括间接需求。笔者接着分析中国谷物供给与生产情况。为了分析粮食安全,笔者采用计量经济回归模型以了解影响谷物生产的因素。本文主要的结论有两个：第一,中国在小型农用设备的过度投资,导致它们对谷物生产有负相关关系；第二,中国可以通过投资于大中型农用设备提高谷物生产量。同时,中国可以通过保护栽种面积与化肥的有效使用进一步保障粮食安全。
[Abstract]:This paper attempts to analyze China's food security in depth.Since 1996, China's central government has focused on food security and focused much of its resources and time on designing optimal solutions.So far, China has taken several important measures, such as protecting cultivated land area, controlling the rapid growth of urban area, encouraging research and development of agricultural technology, training agricultural labor force, and so on.These projects have achieved good results, but the development of Chinese society, that is, urbanization, income increase resulting in changes in dietary structure, population growth and other factors continue to hinder the solution of food security.The study predicts China's future food security prospects through grain demand and supply analysis.First, according to the historical trend, the author predicts the future net demand for grain in China, including direct demand and indirect demand.The author then analyzes the situation of grain supply and production in China.In order to analyze grain security, the author adopts econometric regression model to understand the factors affecting grain production.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, the overinvestment of small-scale agricultural equipment in China leads to a negative correlation between them and grain production; second, China can increase grain production by investing in large and medium-sized agricultural equipment.At the same time, China can further ensure food security by protecting the planting area and the effective use of fertilizer.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F326.1

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