中国苜蓿市场供给和需求关系研究

发布时间：2018-04-12 13:06

本文选题：苜蓿 + 供给　；参考：《内蒙古大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国在2012年启动"振兴奶业苜蓿发展行动"计划,对苜蓿的重视程度提高,对有资质的企业和农民予以政策上的优惠,政策的红利使得市场上苜蓿需求数量快速上升,产品出现供不应求的局面,苜蓿供求关系紧张,制约了奶牛养殖业的提质增效,也影响了苜蓿产业在中国的发展。本文主要利用净进口依存度、计量经济模型以及预测模型等方法对苜蓿供给和需求关系进行了研究。首先分析了近年来苜蓿种子、苜蓿种植、商品草的产销、面积以及进出口情况,发现苜蓿草种的供应量不足,虽然苜蓿种植面积大,但是苜蓿供应短缺。苜蓿的进口依存度高,随着奶业等其他养殖业的发展对苜蓿的需求在逐年增加,供需缺口加大。利用2001-2015中国苜蓿主要种植省份的面板数据,构建了苜蓿供给反应模型和需求影响因素模型,结果显示:苜蓿供给在种植方面主要受前期收购价格、前期种植面积以及前期相关商品价格的影响,有明显的滞后性。在单产方面主要受前期收购价格、前期单产、自然灾害以及施肥情况的影响。苜蓿需求主要受苜蓿收购价格、原料奶价格、规模以上养殖场奶牛存栏数以及企业加工能力等的影响。中国苜蓿供给无论长期还是短期均缺乏弹性,苜蓿种植面积价格弹性大于苜蓿单产价格弹性,这就说明在中国苜蓿的生产加工方面,生产者依据其价格走势来对种植面积的把握和调控的效率更高。利用灰色马尔科夫模型和二次指数平滑法对苜蓿的供需进行了预测,发现未来五年中国苜蓿供需缺口逐渐增大。为了更好地解决苜蓿供需间的矛盾,提出了加强农企合作,鼓励农户种草;抓住关键技术,加强创新研发;加强市场建设,提高风险防范水平;构建多元化的经营方式,促进产销一体化的建议。
[Abstract]:In 2012, China launched the "Action for promoting Alfalfa Development in Dairy Industry", which has given more attention to alfalfa and preferential policies for qualified enterprises and farmers. The dividend of the policy has led to a rapid increase in the number of alfalfa demand in the market.The shortage of supply and demand of alfalfa restricts the improvement of quality and efficiency of dairy cattle breeding and affects the development of alfalfa industry in China.In this paper, the relationship between supply and demand of alfalfa was studied by means of net import dependence, econometric model and prediction model.Firstly, the paper analyzes the production and marketing of alfalfa seed, alfalfa planting, commercial grass and its import and export in recent years. It is found that the supply of alfalfa seed is insufficient, although alfalfa planting area is large, but alfalfa supply is short.The import dependence of alfalfa is high. With the development of other breeding industries such as dairy industry, the demand for alfalfa is increasing year by year, and the gap between supply and demand is increasing.Based on the panel data of the main alfalfa growing provinces in China from 2001 to 2015, the alfalfa supply response model and the demand influencing factor model were constructed. The results showed that the alfalfa supply was mainly subject to the purchase price in the early stage of planting.The effect of early planting area and related commodity price has obvious lag.The yield is mainly affected by purchase price, yield, natural disaster and fertilization.Alfalfa demand is mainly affected by alfalfa purchase price, raw milk price, dairy cattle stock and processing ability of enterprises.The price elasticity of alfalfa planting area is greater than that of alfalfa per unit yield, which indicates that the alfalfa production and processing in China is more flexible than that of alfalfa production.The producer according to its price trend to the planting area grasp and the regulation efficiency is higher.The grey Markov model and quadratic exponential smoothing method were used to predict the supply and demand of alfalfa, and it was found that the gap between the supply and demand of alfalfa in China would increase gradually in the next five years.In order to better solve the contradiction between the supply and demand of alfalfa, it is proposed to strengthen the cooperation between agricultural enterprises and enterprises, encourage farmers to recommend, grasp key technologies, strengthen innovative research and development, strengthen market construction, improve the level of risk prevention, and build a diversified management mode.Suggestions for promoting the integration of production and marketing.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F324.6

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