黑龙江省粮食生产结构的演变及影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-04-21 20:10

本文选题：黑龙江省 + 粮食　；参考：《黑龙江八一农垦大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：黑龙江省不仅是中国的产粮大省，也是全国最大的商品粮基地。近年来，黑龙江省粮食产量持续增长，为我国粮食生产“十一连增”作出了重要贡献。与此同时，黑龙江省的粮食生产结构也发生了较大变化，这一变动对粮食产量及粮食生产波动产生较大影响。那么，建国以来我国粮食生产结构经历了怎样的变化过程？其变化特征和未来变化趋势如何？弄清这些问题，对于调整粮食种植结构，提高粮食产量具有重要意义。因此，本文将采用1949-2013年的粮食生产数据分析黑龙江省粮食生产结构的变动，从而揭示黑龙江粮食生产结构的变动特征，在此基础上，剖析粮食生产结构变动的影响因素及未来发展趋势，可以为黑龙江省粮食结构调整和优化提供借鉴。经研究，可以得出以下基本结论： (1)建国以来黑龙江省粮食生产获得了较快发展，但总体波动较大。一方面，粮食产量的提高得益于播种面积的扩大和单产的提高，单产的作用效果更为明显；另一方面，粮食生产结构的变动对粮食产量及其波动影响较大。玉米和稻谷因其较高的单产水平和较快的增速对粮食单产作用更大，且玉米和稻谷的种植面积在粮食面积中的比重不断增加，因此，玉米和稻谷对粮食总产量的提高起主要作用。 (2)建国以来黑龙江省主要粮食作物生产结构表现出由多种粮食作物逐步向四大主粮作物过渡的特征，近十年来基本呈现“两增两减”的变化态势，“两增”为稻谷和玉米产量增加，尤其是玉米生产持续增长，“两减”是小麦和大豆产量减少。 (3)自然条件、农业政策、技术因素和经济因素是影响粮食生产结构的主要因素，，而玉米和稻谷在粮食生产中的优势日益突出的主要原因是这两种粮食作物的收益较高。（4）运用GM（1,1）模型对黑龙江省未来几年的粮食种植结构进行预测，结果显示未来几年玉米产量将大幅上升，水稻略有下降，大豆和小麦则大幅度降低。根据以上研究发现，黑龙江省以玉米和稻谷为主的粮食生产结构也存在一定的问题，一方面从产品供给的角度来看，不利于作为大豆主产区的大豆生产发展；另一方面从耕作技术角度来看，不利于粮食生产的可持续发展。因此，未来可以考虑通过合理的“大豆-玉米”轮作技术体系来调整和优化粮食生产结构，在确保国家粮食安全和促进农民增收的同时，推进我国粮食生产的可持续发展。
[Abstract]:Heilongjiang Province is not only a big grain production province in China, but also the largest commodity grain base in China. In recent years, the grain output of Heilongjiang Province has been increasing continuously, which has made important contribution to the grain production of our country. At the same time, the structure of grain production in Heilongjiang Province has also undergone great changes, which has a great impact on the grain production and the fluctuation of grain production. So, since the founding of the people's Republic of China, what changes have been experienced in the structure of grain production? What are its changing characteristics and future trends? Understanding these problems is of great significance for adjusting grain planting structure and increasing grain yield. Therefore, this paper will use the grain production data from 1949 to 2013 to analyze the changes in the structure of grain production in Heilongjiang Province, thus revealing the changing characteristics of the structure of grain production in Heilongjiang Province, on the basis of which, The analysis of the influencing factors and the future development trend of the grain production structure can provide reference for the adjustment and optimization of the grain structure in Heilongjiang Province. After study, the following basic conclusions can be drawn: The grain production in Heilongjiang Province has developed rapidly since the founding of the people's Republic of China. On the one hand, the increase of grain yield benefits from the expansion of sowing area and the increase of unit yield, the effect of unit yield is more obvious; on the other hand, the change of grain production structure has a great influence on grain yield and its fluctuation. Maize and rice have a greater effect on grain yield because of their higher yield level and faster growth rate, and the proportion of corn and rice planting area in grain area is increasing, therefore, Corn and rice play a major role in increasing the total grain yield. (2) since the founding of the people's Republic of China, the production structure of the main grain crops in Heilongjiang Province has shown the characteristics of the transition from a variety of grain crops to four main grain crops. In the past ten years, the production structure of the main grain crops has basically shown a changing trend of "two increases and two decreases". "two increase" is the increase of rice and corn yield, especially the continuous increase of corn production, and "two minus" is the decrease of wheat and soybean yield. 3) Natural conditions, agricultural policies, technical factors and economic factors are the main factors affecting the structure of grain production, and the main reason for the increasing superiority of corn and rice in grain production is the higher income of these two kinds of grain crops. (4) the grain planting structure of Heilongjiang Province in the next few years was predicted by using the GMM1) model. The results showed that the corn yield would increase significantly in the next few years, the rice yield would decrease slightly, and the soybean and wheat crops would decrease significantly in the next few years. According to the above research, there are some problems in the grain production structure of Heilongjiang Province, which is mainly corn and rice. On the one hand, from the point of view of product supply, it is not conducive to the development of soybean production as the main soybean production area; On the other hand, from the perspective of farming technology, is not conducive to the sustainable development of grain production. Therefore, in the future, we can consider adjusting and optimizing the grain production structure through a reasonable "Soybean-corn" rotation technology system, which can ensure the national grain security and promote the farmers' income, and promote the sustainable development of China's grain production at the same time.
【学位授予单位】：黑龙江八一农垦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F326.11

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