托克逊县土地利用总体规划实施评价研究

发布时间：2018-04-21 20:26

  本文选题：土地利用总体规划 + 评价指标　； 参考：《新疆大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：伴随着全球经济社会的迅猛发展,土地资源的供需矛盾愈来愈突显。土地利用总体规划对于宏观协调土地供给与需求,安排和调整土地利用有着重要的作用。而土地利用总体规划的关键就在于实施,目前对于规划实施的评价已成为各国学者着力探究的课题。本文在传统的定性与定量评价上,添加了基于GIS的定位评价,并以新疆托克逊县为例,构建了一套符合西北干旱区土地利用特点的规划实施评价体系,进一步研究了规划实施过程和结果的空间吻合度。主要的研究内容与结论为:(1)全面查阅和掌握国内外研究进展及相关理论概念,对规划基期2009年、评价时点2013年、规划目标2020年的土地利用进行数量、结构分析,发现其特点与存在的问题。(2)从用地规模指标执行情况、用地结构与布局情况、节约集约用地情况、规划实施修改情况四个方面选取24个指标构建评价指标体系,受时间年限等限制采用基于专家打分法的层次分析法赋权重,按线性公式分段进行标准化处理,结合多因素综合评价法判断实施效果。结果显示托克逊县土地利用总体规划实施评价得分为86.86分,等级为“优秀”,但节约集约用地与允许区使用情况有待提高。主要由于城镇工矿用地增长过快,规划目标的人口、经济预测偏高,项目用地未完全依照规划实施等。据此提出局部修改规划,建立建设用地节约集约利用机制,加强用途管制和规划实施管理等建议。(3)运用GIS空间分析法,利用ArcGIS中的叠加分析工具,在托克逊县2009年土地利用现状图的基础上,将2013年与2020年土地利用情况进行叠加,得到规划实施过程和结果中发生变化且不符合规划的部分及规划未实施部分,再根据地类图斑、用途区与区域空间吻合度模型计算出相应的空间吻合度数值。(4)结果表明规划实施过程中的地类图斑、用途区及区域空间吻合度值大都接近于标准值1.00,未达到符合级别,其中其他农用地、一般农地区的空间吻合性最低,说明该县2009-2013年间土地利用变化在数量和空间位置上都存在与规划不符的地方。规划实施结果中地类图斑、用途区空间吻合度级别大都在Ⅱ-Ⅴ级,少数达到符合级别Ⅰ级,建设用地级别相对较低,其中其他独立建设用地、独立工矿用地区的空间吻合性最低,区域空间吻合度级别为Ⅱ级,说明该县规划实施情况较好,进展速度平稳,但与规划目标还存在一定差距,其中建设用地差距更大,在未来的规划实施期间还需进一步加大实施力度与监测。(5)最后分析发现托克逊县土地利用与规划不符主要是由于实际用地与规划用地之间的比例尺差异,土地利用变更数据未及时更新,实际用地未完全按规划实施,规划缺乏一定的弹性,土地利用动态监测薄弱。据此提出严格规划局部修改程序,结合遥感监测,及时更新土地变更数据库,强化土地利用动态监测,运用法律措施,加强社会监督等建议。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of global economy and society, the contradiction between supply and demand of land resources is more and more prominent. The overall planning of land use plays an important role in coordinating land supply and demand, arranging and adjusting land use. The key of the overall land use planning lies in the implementation. At present, the evaluation of the implementation of the plan has become a topic that scholars all over the world focus on. Based on the traditional qualitative and quantitative evaluation, this paper adds the positioning evaluation based on GIS, and takes Tokeson County in Xinjiang as an example to construct a set of planning and implementation evaluation system which accords with the characteristics of land use in arid area of Northwest China. The spatial consistency between the planning implementation process and the results is further studied. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows: (1) comprehensively consulting and mastering the research progress and related theoretical concepts at home and abroad, and analyzing the quantity and structure of land use in the planning base period 2009, the evaluation time point 2013, and the planning goal 2020. It is found that its characteristics and existing problems. 2) choose 24 indexes to construct the evaluation index system from four aspects: the implementation of land scale index, the structure and layout of land use, the saving of intensive land use and the planning and implementation modification. Limited by the time limit, the AHP based on the expert scoring method is used to assign weight, to be standardized according to the linear formula segment, and to judge the effect of the implementation in combination with the multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that the evaluation score of the implementation of the overall land use planning was 86.86, and the grade was "excellent", but the saving of intensive land and the use of permitted area needed to be improved. It is mainly due to the rapid growth of industrial and mining land in cities and towns, the population of the planning target, the high economic forecast, and the incomplete implementation of the project land in accordance with the plan and so on. Based on this, some suggestions are put forward, such as local modification of planning, establishment of intensive utilization mechanism of saving and using land for construction, strengthening of use control and implementation management of planning, etc.) using GIS spatial analysis method, using superposition analysis tool in ArcGIS, etc. On the basis of the land use status map of Tok Xun County in 2009, the land use situation in 2013 and 2020 is superimposed to obtain the parts of the planning implementation process and results that are not in accordance with the plan and the parts that are not in line with the plan. Then, according to the ground spot, the model of the spatial consistency between the use area and the region, the corresponding value of the spatial consistency is calculated. The result shows that the map spot in the process of planning and implementation. Most of the spatial coincidence values of the use areas and regions were close to the standard value of 1.00, which did not reach the corresponding level, and the other agricultural land, the general agricultural areas, had the lowest spatial consistency. It shows that the land use change in 2009-2013 is not consistent with the planning in terms of quantity and spatial location. In the results of planning and implementation, the degree of spatial consistency of the use areas is mostly in the grade 鈪，

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