中国北方农牧交错带农业资源可持续利用水平演变及趋势预测——以乌兰察布市为例

发布时间：2018-05-04 04:37

本文选题：北方农牧交错带 + 农业资源　；参考：《中国农业资源与区划》2017年04期

【摘要】：[目的]北方农牧交错带是我国典型的生态环境脆弱带,农业资源利用对该区域的生态环境具有重要影响。探寻适宜于该区域的农业资源监测指标体系,及时发现农业资源的变动状态与趋势,可为农业与环保部门制定管理措施提供参考依据。[方法]文章以内蒙古自治区乌兰察布市为例,从农业资源禀赋、农业生态压力和农业产出水平3个方面,选取15个评价指标,运用层次分析法和指数平滑法,对中国北方农牧交错带的农业资源可持续利用水平的演变与趋势进行分析预测。[结果]结果表明:农业资源禀赋指标组中土壤有机质含量和人均牧草地面积2个指标权重较大,土壤有机质含量下降是引起乌兰察布市农业资源禀赋指数下降的主要原因;农业生态压力指标组中载畜量和化肥负荷程度指标权重较大,人口密度、载畜量、耕地盐碱化程度的下降,减弱了干燥度和化肥负荷程度2个指标增长的不利影响,使乌兰察布市农业生态压力指数表现出下降趋势;农业产出指标组中人均农林牧渔业产值和农牧民人均可支配收入2个指标权重较大,2个指标的持续增长是引起农业产出指数增长的主要因素。[结论]乌兰察布市2001~2014年农业资源禀赋指数逐渐减小,且指数下降的趋势仍将延续,预计2018年降至2001年的51.21%;该市农业生态压力指数呈现波动下降趋势,预计2018年降至2001年的26.78%;该市农业产出指数逐渐增加,预计2018年增至2001年的183倍;该市农业资源可持续利用综合指数在2001~2007年呈逐渐下降的趋势,2008~2014年呈逐渐增加的趋势,预计将于2016年开始超出2001年的水平。
[Abstract]:[objective] the ecotone of agriculture and animal husbandry in North China is a typical fragile zone of ecological environment, and the utilization of agricultural resources has an important influence on the ecological environment of this region. In order to find out the changing state and trend of agricultural resources in time, it can provide reference for agriculture and environmental protection departments to make management measures. [methods] taking Wulanchabu city of Inner Mongolia Autonomous region as an example, 15 evaluation indexes were selected from three aspects of agricultural resource endowment, agricultural ecological pressure and agricultural output level, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and exponential smoothing method were used. The evolution and trend of sustainable utilization of agricultural resources in the agricultural and pastoral ecotone of northern China were analyzed and predicted. [results] the results showed that the weight of soil organic matter content and per capita forage land area was large in the agricultural resource endowment index group, and the decrease of soil organic matter content was the main reason for the decline of agricultural resource endowment index in Wulanchabu city. In the agro ecological pressure index group, the weight of the indexes of livestock load and fertilizer load was large, and the decrease of population density, carrying capacity and the degree of salinization of cultivated land weakened the adverse effects of the increase of dryness and fertilizer load. The index of agricultural ecological pressure in Wulanchabu showed a downward trend; The per capita output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and the per capita disposable income of farmers and herdsmen are of great weight in the agricultural output index group, and the sustained growth of the two indexes is the main factor that causes the increase of agricultural output index. [conclusion] from 2001 to 2014, the agricultural resource endowment index of Wulanchab city gradually decreased, and the decreasing trend of the index will continue, which is expected to drop to 51.21% in 2018, and the index of agricultural ecological pressure in the city shows a downward trend. The index of agricultural output of the city is expected to increase gradually, which is expected to increase by 183 times in 2018, and the comprehensive index of sustainable utilization of agricultural resources in the city will gradually decrease from 2001 to 2007. It is expected to start surpassing 2001 levels in 2016.
【作者单位】：中国农业科学院农业资源与区划研究所;内蒙古自治区农牧业科学院;
【基金】：2015年农业部农村资源调查与区划项目“内蒙古农业可持续发展研究”
【分类号】：F327

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