城乡低保是否有助于未来减贫——基于贫困脆弱性的实证分析

发布时间：2018-05-04 23:07

本文选题：最低生活保障制度 + 贫困脆弱性　；参考：《财贸经济》2017年05期

【摘要】：长久以来,相关文献多集中于讨论最低生活保障制度对家庭当期贫困的影响,而忽视了远期效果。借助CFPS2012微观调查数据,本文实证考察了城乡低保对家庭贫困脆弱性的影响。文中采取倾向值匹配(PSM)方法以尽可能消除样本选择偏误。基本结果表明:低保制度对贫困脆弱性并未产生明显的改善效果,反而有可能增加家庭未来陷入贫困的可能性。这一结论对于城市和农村家庭都是成立的。本文认为,低保制度未降低贫困脆弱性至少有如下原因:一是制度执行中存在瞄准偏差;二是低保挤出了参保家庭的私人转移支付;三是低保降低了居民的工作意愿。机制分析支持了上述论断。本文主要贡献在于以前瞻性视角对最低生活保障制度的减贫效果进行再评估,为政府制定和调整相关政策方针提供了参考。
[Abstract]:For a long time, the literature has focused on the impact of the minimum living security system on the current poverty of families, while neglecting the long-term effects. With the help of CFPS2012 data, this paper empirically examines the impact of urban and rural minimum security on the vulnerability of families to poverty. In this paper, the tendency value matching (PSM) method is used to eliminate sample selection errors as much as possible. The basic results show that the system of minimum living standard has not obviously improved the vulnerability of poverty, but may increase the possibility of families falling into poverty in the future. This conclusion is true for both urban and rural families. This paper argues that the minimum living security system has not reduced the vulnerability of poverty for at least the following reasons: first, there is a targeting bias in the implementation of the system; second, the minimum living allowance squeezes out the private transfer payment of the participating families; and the third, the minimum living allowance reduces the residents' willingness to work. The mechanism analysis supports the above conclusion. The main contribution of this paper is to reevaluate the poverty reduction effect of the minimum living security system from a forward-looking perspective, which provides a reference for the government to formulate and adjust the relevant policy guidelines.
【作者单位】：南京财经大学财政与税务学院;
【分类号】：F323.89

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