中国农村社会保障的居民消费效应研究

发布时间：2018-05-21 04:11

本文选题：社会保障 + 农村　；参考：《江西财经大学学报》2017年05期

【摘要】：选取2004—2015年中国大陆30个省(市、区)的数据,通过面板门槛回归模型实证测度了农村社会保障对农村居民消费的影响。研究发现,农村社会保障对农村居民消费的影响存在三重门槛效应。当农村人均转移性收入低于388元时,农村居民消费的弹性系数为0.218;当农村人均转移性收入处于388元至741元之间时,消费弹性系数增加为0.232;当农村人均转移性收入处于741元至2080元之间时,消费弹性系数继续增加为0.248;当农村人均转移性收入大于2080元时,消费弹性系数下降为0.236。从地区来看,东、中、西部地区农村社会保障对农村居民的消费同样具有非线性的正向影响,其中,西部地区的消费促进效应最强,东部次之,中部地区最低。基于此,建议进一步提高农村居民转移性收入,增强对西部地区农村社会保障的支持力度,提升农村人力资本,以在更大程度上提振农村居民消费,促进农村地区经济增长。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of 30 provinces (municipalities and districts) in mainland China from 2004 to 2015, this paper empirically measures the impact of rural social security on rural residents' consumption through panel threshold regression model. It is found that the influence of rural social security on rural residents' consumption has triple threshold effect. When the per capita transfer income is lower than 388 yuan, the elasticity coefficient of rural residents' consumption is 0.218, and when the rural per capita transfer income is between 388 yuan and 741 yuan, The coefficient of consumption elasticity increased to 0.232, the coefficient of consumption elasticity continued to increase to 0.248 when the per capita transfer income of rural areas was between 741 yuan and 2080 yuan, and the coefficient of consumption elasticity decreased to 0.236 when the per capita transfer income of rural areas was more than 2080 yuan. From the regional point of view, the rural social security in the east, middle and west also has a nonlinear positive effect on the consumption of rural residents. Among them, the consumption promotion effect is the strongest in the western region, the second in the eastern region, and the lowest in the central region. Based on this, it is suggested that the transfer income of rural residents should be further improved, the support for rural social security in the western region should be strengthened, and the rural human capital should be promoted in order to boost rural residents' consumption to a greater extent and to promote economic growth in rural areas.
【作者单位】：浙江财经大学财政税务学院;武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“建构基于生态文明建设的公共财政体制研究”(15ZDB158) 国家自然科学基金项目“中国财政分配的居民收入分配效应测度及矫正机制研究”(71573194) 博士后科学基金面上项目“基于中国式治理的财政政策选择偏好及其经济效应研究”(2017M610361)
【分类号】：F323.89

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