中国玉米进出口贸易形势及影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-05-21 04:20

本文选题：玉米进口 + 玉米出口　；参考：《南京农业大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国是农业大国,有着丰富的农产品资源,因而在国际农产品贸易中占据着不可或缺的地位。玉米作为中国第二大粮食作物,其产量仅次于小麦,一直是我国的主要出口农产品。但是自2009年以后,中国玉米进出口贸易格局发生巨大改变,由长久以来的净出口格局转为净进口趋势,且中国玉米出口量急剧下降,进口量猛升。玉米进出口贸易的变化,直接影响到中国粮食安全问题,引起学者们的广泛关注。基于这一瞩目问题,本文从国内供求的变化情况,推到中国玉米进出口贸易变化的原因,从而全面分析中国玉米的国际市场行情,并对玉米贸易格局变化的影响因素进行实证分析,为中国玉米进出口贸易利益以及粮食安全提供相应的政策建议。围绕以上思路,本文从以下五个部分对问题进行阐述,第一章从选题的研究意义和背景出发,说明本课题的时效性和相关价值,然后对国内外关于中国玉米进出口贸易变化趋势以及相关影响因素的研究作以综述,为本文的研究做理论铺垫,再针对本文的研究目标、内容、方法以及创新和不足之处进行说明。第二章从中国玉米供求主体特征的角度进行分析,对于玉米供给主体的生产情况和比较优势进行对比,呈现中国玉米供给的整体情况,同时对三大玉米需求主体的特征以及上升空间进行估计,以更好的掌握中国玉米供求平衡的相关情况,并对提出玉米供求的影响因素。第三章主要介绍中国玉米进出口贸易的国际市场行情,从贸易格局和贸易结构的视角出发,对近年来中国玉米主要进出口的分布情况进行总结,以及玉米贸易量的变化和省级进出口的特点,同时对中国玉米的国际竞争力水平从国际市场占有率、显示性比较优势指数以及贸易竞争力指数方面进行分析。第四章则对中国玉米进出口贸易的影响因素进行实证分析,从理论分析以及实证研究的角度,探究玉米需求、玉米价格、国际市场贸易情况以及相关政策对中国玉米进出口贸易变化的影响因素。第五章则对全文作以总结,同时针对中国玉米进出口贸易的发展献计献策。通过本文对于中国玉米贸易形势的探究,可以发现中国玉米的供给量不足以平衡日益增加的玉米需求量,主要是源于中国耕地面积的有限以及其他农业替代作物的成本收益情况要大于玉米,同时随着饲料玉米和工业玉米需求的更加,迫使中国由玉米的净出口国转为净进口国。主要从美国、老挝和缅甸进行玉米进口,将玉米出口给韩国、日本等国家,且玉米国际贸易呈现省级分布特点。中国的玉米产量、国际市场价格以及补贴政策可以促进中国玉米的出口贸易,而国内玉米的价格、人民币汇率以及出口限制将阻碍中国玉米出口。因而,为保障中国玉米贸易安全,我们必须积极鼓励玉米贸易顺差,提高国内玉米产量,稳定玉米价格,因地制宜的制定贸易政策,并优化中国玉米进出口贸易战略。
[Abstract]:China is a large agricultural country with abundant agricultural resources, so it plays an indispensable role in international agricultural trade. Corn is the second largest food crop in China, its yield is second only to wheat, and has been the main export agricultural product of our country. But since 2009, the pattern of China's corn import and export trade has changed greatly, from the pattern of net export to the trend of net import for a long time. The change of corn import and export trade directly affects the food security in China and attracts the attention of scholars. Based on this remarkable problem, this paper, from the changing situation of domestic supply and demand, to the reason of the change in China's corn import and export trade, thus comprehensively analyzes the international market situation of China's corn. The paper also makes an empirical analysis on the influencing factors of the change of corn trade pattern in order to provide corresponding policy suggestions for the benefit of China's corn import and export trade and food security. According to the above ideas, this paper expounds the problem from the following five parts. The first chapter explains the timeliness and relevant value of this topic from the research significance and background of the topic. Then the domestic and foreign research on the trend of China's corn import and export trade and the related factors are summarized to pave the way for the research of this paper, and then aim at the research objectives and contents of this paper. The second chapter analyzes the main characteristics of corn supply and demand in China, compares the production situation and comparative advantage of the main body of corn supply, and presents the overall situation of corn supply in China. At the same time, the characteristics and rising space of the three main corn demand bodies were estimated to better understand the relevant situation of corn supply and demand balance in China, and to put forward the influencing factors of corn supply and demand. The third chapter mainly introduces the international market situation of China's corn import and export trade, from the perspective of trade pattern and trade structure, summarizes the distribution of China's main corn import and export in recent years. The changes of corn trade volume and the characteristics of provincial import and export are also discussed. The international competitive level of Chinese maize is analyzed from the aspects of international market share, comparative advantage index and trade competitiveness index. The fourth chapter makes an empirical analysis on the influencing factors of China's corn import and export trade. From the perspective of theoretical analysis and empirical research, it explores corn demand, corn prices, The influence factors of international market trade and related policies on China's corn import and export trade. The fifth chapter summarizes the full text and makes suggestions on the development of China's corn import and export trade. Through the research on the situation of corn trade in China, we can find that the supply of corn in China is not enough to balance the increasing demand for corn. This is mainly due to the limited cultivated land in China and the fact that the cost and benefits of other agricultural alternative crops are greater than that of corn, and the shift from a net exporter of corn to a net importer of corn has been forced as demand for corn and industrial corn has increased. Mainly from the United States, Laos and Myanmar to import corn, corn exports to South Korea, Japan and other countries, and the distribution of international trade in maize at the provincial level. China's corn production, international market prices and subsidies can boost China's corn export trade, while domestic corn prices, yuan exchange rates and export restrictions will hamper Chinese corn exports. Therefore, in order to ensure the security of China's corn trade, we must actively encourage the corn trade surplus, increase domestic corn production, stabilize corn prices, formulate trade policies according to local conditions, and optimize China's corn import and export trade strategy.
【学位授予单位】：南京农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.7;F752.6

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