中国-东盟自由贸易区粮食生产与贸易的时空格局演变

发布时间：2018-05-21 11:50

本文选题：粮食生产 + 粮食贸易　；参考：《自然资源学报》2017年06期

【摘要】：东南亚既是中国-东盟自由贸易区的重要组成部分,也是21世纪海上丝绸之路的前沿阵地和重要枢纽。20世纪90年代特别是中国-东盟自由贸易区(简称"自贸区")成立以来,中国与东盟及其成员国的经贸联系日益加强。研究全球最大粮食消费国、进口国以及世界稻米最重要主产区和出口区之间的粮食生产和贸易发展态势,对中国实施"走出去"和"引进来"战略、建设21世纪海上丝绸之路以及改善地缘安全环境具有重要现实意义。论文基于FAO数据库中国-东盟各成员国1961—2013年粮食生产与贸易数据,利用集中化指数与回归分析法,定量揭示中国-东盟粮食生产与贸易的时空格局及演变特征。研究表明:1)从粮食生产来看,50多年来自贸区粮食总产增长4.06倍,至2013年底总产达到8.09×108t;就粮食贸易而言,1961—2013年自贸区贸易量增长3.19倍,其中粮食进口量年均增长率为2.95%,粮食出口量增长2.40倍,粮食进口总体大于粮食出口,受中国粮食进出口战略调整的影响,自贸区各个子区粮食贸易日趋均匀化。2)从空间格局来看,自贸区主要粮食生产国集中在中国、印度尼西亚、泰国和越南,其中中国的玉米、水稻比重占明显优势;中国的粮食贸易逆差进一步扩大,其贸易重心开始转向东南亚。3)自贸区的粮食生产与粮食进出口量关系密切,具有显著相关性,但国别差异明显。其中,中国粮食出口量受国内粮食生产与需求影响较大,是自贸区粮食贸易变动的晴雨表。
[Abstract]:Southeast Asia is not only an important component of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area, but also a frontier position and an important hub of the Maritime Silk Road in the 21st century. In the 1990s, especially since the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area (FTA), Economic and trade ties between China and ASEAN and its member states are increasingly strengthened. To study the development of food production and trade between the world's largest food consumers, importers and the world's most important rice producing and exporting regions, and to implement the strategy of "going out" and "bringing in" to China, The construction of the 21 st century maritime Silk Road and the improvement of the geo-security environment are of great practical significance. Based on the FAO database of grain production and trade between China and ASEAN member countries from 1961 to 2013, the paper quantitatively reveals the temporal and spatial patterns and evolution characteristics of grain production and trade between China and ASEAN by means of centralization index and regression analysis. The study shows that in terms of grain production, the total grain output of the trade zone increased 4.06 times in more than 50 years, and reached 8.09 脳 108 t by the end of 2013; in terms of grain trade, the volume of trade in the free trade zone increased 3.19 times in 1961-2013. Among them, the average annual growth rate of grain imports is 2.95%, and grain export volume is increasing 2.40 times. Grain imports are generally larger than grain exports, which is affected by the readjustment of China's grain import and export strategy. From the spatial pattern, the main grain producing countries in the free trade area are concentrated in China, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, the proportion of corn and rice in China is obviously superior; China's grain trade deficit further expanded, and its trade center began to shift to Southeast Asia. 3) the grain production and grain import and export volume of the free trade area are closely related and have significant correlation, but the differences between different countries are obvious. Among them, the grain export volume of China is influenced by the domestic grain production and demand, and is a barometer of the change of grain trade in the free trade area.
【作者单位】：中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;中国科学院大学资源与环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41430861,41301090)~~
【分类号】：F323.7;F326.11;F752.7

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