升金湖国家自然保护区土地利用生态风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-05-23 18:21

本文选题：土地利用生态风险 + 空间动态变化　；参考：《安徽农业大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：土地是重要的资源,是人类生活的载体,影响着人类和动植物的生存和发展。土地利用生态风险的高低直接关系到人类和动植物的生存环境的好坏,因此对土地利用生态风险进行评价具有重要的意义。本文以安徽省升金湖国家自然保护区为研究对象,以1986、1995、2000、2004和2011年五期TM遥感影像作为基础数据源,结合SPOT5影像和1：10000地形图等辅助数据,运用ERDAS, ARCGIS等软件,根据土地利用现状,结合土地类型分类标准,运用监督分类方法将保护区三个功能区实验区、核心区、缓冲区,分为建设用地、草地、耕地、林地、水域、未利用地、交通用地和滩涂用地八种土地利用类型,再进行土地利用类型面积的统计,得到土地利用信息,从而分析土地利用时空动态变化情况和土地利用变化驱动力因子。采用层次分析和模糊数学法建立土地利用生态风险评价模型,计算土地利用生态风险指数,进行风险等级的判定,并对其进行评价。运用SAS软件的插值和三次回归方法,建立生态风险预测模型；运用计算机模拟方法进行土地利用生态风险预警计算,从而监测研究区的土地利用生态风险状况。首先,从获取的5期土地利用类型图知,研究区土地利用类型主要为耕地和水域。1986-2011年间,研究区耕地面积不断减少、交通用地和建设用地不断增加。根据土地利用生态风险模型计算的土地利用生态风险值可知,1986-2011年间,研究区的土地利用生态风险呈增强趋势,但是增速有所减缓,这可能与保护区管理站的建立有关。保护区三个功能区的土地利用生态风险有所不同,核心区主要是湖区,水域占主要土地类型,受人类经济活动影响较小,因此土地利用生态风险较小；缓冲区和实验区主要是人类活动的区域,建设用地和交通用地占比例较大,对生态环境的影响较大,因此土地利用生态风险较高。其次,本文运用SAS软件,采用插值和三次回归方法,建立保护区土地利用生态风险预测模型,再运用计算机模拟进行土地利用生态风险预警。通过土地利用生态风险预测模型,预测了2012-2020年的土地利用生态风险值,从预测的结果看,保护区的土地利用生态风险呈上升趋势,但是上升幅度不大。预警模型是对保护区风险的一种监测,通过风险预警可以将保护区的生态风险控制在安全范围内,可以通过调控影响风险的指标因子的值,从而让保护区处于安全状态。最后,本文研究了保护区1986-2014年水鸟的数量变化,分析水鸟的栖息地状况。水鸟主要栖息在保护区的核心区,即升金湖的湖区范围,升金湖的湖区分为上湖、中湖和下湖三个湖段,升金湖上、下两湖地势高,中湖地势低,上、下两湖的栖息地条件较中湖好,有丰富的水草和滩涂,适合水鸟的栖息。根据保护区的现状,提出保护的环境治理建议,保护栖息地的生态环境。
[Abstract]:Land is an important resource and a carrier of human life, which affects the survival and development of human beings and animals and plants. The ecological risk of land use is directly related to the survival environment of human beings and animals and plants, so it is of great significance to evaluate the ecological risk of land use. This paper takes Shengjinhu National Nature Reserve in Anhui Province as the research object, takes the five TM remote sensing images of 1986-1995 / 2000,2004 and 2011 as the basic data source, combines with the auxiliary data such as SPOT5 image and 1: 10000 topographic map, and uses the software ERDas, ARCGIS and so on, according to the present situation of land use. Combining with the classification standard of land type, the experimental area, core area and buffer zone of three functional areas of the reserve are divided into construction land, grassland, cultivated land, woodland, water area and unused land by means of supervised classification method. There are eight land use types of traffic land and beach land, and then land use type area statistics are carried out, and land use information is obtained, so as to analyze the dynamic change of land use and the driving force factor of land use change. The evaluation model of land use ecological risk is established by using AHP and fuzzy mathematics method. The index of land use ecological risk is calculated and the risk grade is judged and evaluated. By using the interpolation and cubic regression method of SAS software, the ecological risk prediction model is established, and the land use ecological risk early warning calculation is carried out by computer simulation method, so as to monitor the land use ecological risk situation in the study area. First of all, from the five land-use maps obtained, the main types of land use in the study area are cultivated land and water area. During 1986-2011, the area of cultivated land in the study area is decreasing, and the land for traffic and construction is increasing. According to the value of land use ecological risk calculated by land use ecological risk model from 1986 to 2011, the land use ecological risk in the study area showed an increasing trend, but the growth rate slowed down, which may be related to the establishment of protected area management station. The ecological risk of land use in the three functional areas of the reserve is different. The core area is mainly the lake area, and the water area is the main land type, which is less affected by human economic activities, so the ecological risk of land use is relatively small. The buffer zone and the experimental area are mainly the regions of human activities. The proportion of construction land and traffic land is large, which has a great impact on ecological environment, so the ecological risk of land use is high. Secondly, using SAS software, using interpolation and cubic regression method, this paper establishes the ecological risk prediction model of land use in protected areas, and then uses computer simulation to predict the ecological risk of land use. Based on the prediction model of land use ecological risk, the paper forecasts the value of land use ecological risk from 2012 to 2020. From the forecast results, the land use ecological risk of protected area is on the rise trend, but the increase range is not big. The early warning model is a kind of monitoring of the risk of the protected area, through which the ecological risk of the protected area can be controlled within the safe range, and the value of the index factor that affects the risk can be regulated, so that the protected area is in a safe state. Finally, this paper studies the population change of waterfowl in the reserve from 1986 to 2014, and analyzes the habitat status of waterfowl. The waterfowl mainly inhabits the core area of the reserve, that is, the lake area of Shengjin Lake. The lake area of Shengjin Lake is divided into three sections: the upper lake, the middle lake and the lower lake. The next two lakes are high in topography and low in the middle lake. The habitat conditions of the next two lakes are better than those of the middle lake. According to the present situation of the protected area, some suggestions are put forward to protect the ecological environment of habitat.
【学位授予单位】：安徽农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F301.2

【参考文献】