基于需求分析的农村长期护理保险财政支持研究

发布时间：2018-06-06 10:31

本文选题：农村长期护理保险 + 护理需求　；参考：《南京财经大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：人口老龄化程度的加剧引发的老年护理问题已经成为全球亟待解决的难题。中国是唯一的老年人数目过亿的国家,仅农村地区的60岁以上老年人数就已经过亿,且存在着巨大的护理需求。为此,国内诸多学者强调应尽快建立长期护理保险制度,但大部分学者对农村地区长期护理保险制度研究极少,且主要停留在其理论分析与必要性分析上,缺乏财务方面的定量分析。本文在分析农村失能老人护理需求现状的基础上,讨论政府应扮演的角色与应承担的责任,为政府财政补贴农村长期护理保险提供数据支持,同时论证其财务的可行性。本文首先比较了德国与日本两国长期护理保险制度的内容与财政责任,结合中国农村当前人口老龄化严重、失能率颇高、经济来源集中以及社会保障不足的实际情况,认为中国农村长期护理保险应定性为社会性保险,实行现收现付制的筹资模式,且政府应该承担其相应的财政责任。其次,通过设计宏观仿真需求模型,利用2011年我国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查(CLHLS)中农村失能老人数据与人口宏观管理与决策信息系统(PADIS)对人口预测的结果估算出2015-2045年中国农村长期护理保险的总需求。最后,建立宏观仿真供给模型,依据"以支定收"原则,在0%、30%与50%三种不同的财政补贴下,分别测算出2015-2045年农村长期护理保险的年人均保费以及财政支持力度情况。本文计算模型中设定16-64岁农村居民与40-64岁农村居民两种缴费人群。根据估算结果,可以得出以下结论:①2015-2045年中国农村长期护理保险总需求呈现出增长趋势。②政府的财政补贴政策不仅应充分考虑城乡差距,也需要针对不同的收入水平采取相应的补贴水平,避免部分农村居民的经济压力。③政府的财政补贴与农民年人均保费虽然一直呈现递增趋势,但财政补贴占总财政收入的比值与年人均保费占农民保费上限比值,除了在小范围内波动外,均呈现下降趋势,且政府与个人均可以承受。依据测算结果,文章最后对中国农村开办长期护理保险提出一些参考性的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The problem of aging nursing caused by the aggravation of population aging has become a difficult problem to be solved all over the world. China is the only country with more than 100 million elderly people. In rural areas alone, the number of people over 60 years of age is over 100 million, and there is a huge need for care. For this reason, many domestic scholars emphasize that the long-term care insurance system should be established as soon as possible, but most of the scholars have little research on the long-term care insurance system in rural areas, and mainly stay on its theoretical analysis and necessity analysis. Lack of quantitative financial analysis. Based on the analysis of the status quo of the nursing needs of the disabled elderly in rural areas, this paper discusses the roles and responsibilities of the government, and provides data support for the government to subsidize the rural long-term care insurance, and proves its financial feasibility. This paper first compares the content and financial responsibility of the long-term care insurance system between Germany and Japan, combining with the actual situation that the current aging population of China's rural population is serious, the disability rate is quite high, the economic resources are concentrated and the social security is insufficient. It is suggested that the long-term nursing insurance in rural China should be characterized as social insurance, and should be financed on the basis of pay-as-you-go system, and the government should bear its corresponding financial responsibility. Secondly, by designing the macro simulation requirement model, Based on the data of rural disabled elderly and population macro management and decision information system (PADIS) in 2011, the total demand of rural long-term care insurance for 2015-2045 in China was estimated. Finally, a macro-simulation supply model was established. According to the principle of "according to expenditure and income", under the three different financial subsidies of 30% and 50%, the annual per capita premium and financial support of rural long-term care insurance in 2015-2045 were calculated respectively. In this paper, two kinds of contributory population of 16-64 years old rural residents and 40-64 years old rural residents are set in the calculation model. According to the estimated results, we can draw the following conclusions: 1: 12015-2045 the total demand for long-term care insurance in rural areas in China shows an increasing trend .2 the government's financial subsidy policy should not only fully consider the gap between urban and rural areas. It is also necessary to adopt corresponding subsidy levels according to different income levels so as to avoid the economic pressure of some rural residents. 3. Although the financial subsidies of the government and the annual premiums per capita of farmers have been showing an increasing trend, However, the ratio of financial subsidy to total financial income and the ratio of annual per capita premium to farmer's premium limit, except for the fluctuation in a small range, all show a downward trend, and both the government and the individual can afford it. According to the calculation results, the article finally puts forward some policy suggestions for the establishment of long-term nursing insurance in rural China.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F842.6;F323.89;F812.45

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