基于Pearson灰色关联熵的粮食产量主影响因子识别——以河南省为例

发布时间：2018-06-17 21:03

本文选题：粮食产量 + 主影响因子　；参考：《干旱区资源与环境》2017年09期

【摘要】：区域粮食产量主控因子的诊断需要合理遴选评价指标并准确测度气象气候等各影响因素的作用。文中以河南省1989-2014年的农业统计资料为数据源,首先将Pearson相关分析法应用于从资源投入、气候变化、技术进步、制度政策等四个方面构建的河南省粮食产量影响因子评价指标集,以进行评价指标的定量遴选和消除依据主观经验选择评价指标的局限性,然后再应用熵权法改进后的灰色关联分析法来识别河南省粮食产量主影响因子。研究结果显示:基于Pearson系数和灰色关联熵相结合的粮食产量主影响因子识别结果较符合河南省的客观实际,对于与粮食产量关系密切但其影响通常难以量化的气象气候等因子所起的作用也能够较准确地测度。农田有效灌溉面积、耕地面积和粮食作物播种面积三项因子是河南省粮食产量的主控因子,并且农田有效灌溉面积的灰色关联熵最高,耕地面积和粮食作物播种面积的灰色关联熵也明显高出位于其后的其它因子,这表明河南省粮食生产受到区域内水资源匮乏的强烈影响,同时该省当前的粮食产量(产出)是通过投入大量的耕地资源要素并保持较高的作物种植规模而得以实现的,这与农业可持续发展的内涵并不相符。平均气温、日照时数、年降水总量以及化肥农药的使用量和成灾面积也是河南省粮食产量变化的主要因素,这显示出该省粮食生产的现代化水平不高,受气象气候因子的制约作用明显,对灾害的防御和抵抗能力较弱,存在对易于造成农业面源污染问题的化肥农药依赖性较强的现象;农业机械等科技投入要素对河南省1989年以来粮食产量的影响较小,明显低于气温和降水等气象气候因子的作用。
[Abstract]:The diagnosis of the main controlling factors of regional grain yield needs to reasonably select the evaluation index and accurately measure the effect of various influencing factors such as meteorology and climate. Based on the agricultural statistics data from 1989 to 2014 in Henan Province, Pearson correlation analysis method is applied to the evaluation index set of grain yield impact factors in Henan Province from four aspects: resource input, climate change, technological progress and system policy. In order to select the evaluation index quantitatively and eliminate the limitation of selecting the evaluation index based on subjective experience, the grey relational analysis method improved by entropy weight method was applied to identify the main influencing factors of grain yield in Henan Province. The results show that the recognition results of principal factors of grain yield based on Pearson coefficient and grey correlation entropy are more in line with the objective reality of Henan Province. The effects of meteorological and climatic factors, which are closely related to grain yield but usually difficult to quantify, can also be accurately measured. The three factors of effective irrigation area, cultivated land area and planting area of grain crops are the main controlling factors of grain yield in Henan Province, and the grey correlation entropy of the effective irrigated area of farmland is the highest. The grey correlation entropy of cultivated land area and planting area of grain crops is also significantly higher than that of other factors, which indicates that the grain production in Henan Province is strongly affected by the scarcity of water resources in the region. At the same time, the current grain production (output) in the province is realized by investing a large number of cultivated land resource elements and maintaining a high crop planting scale, which is not in line with the connotation of sustainable agricultural development. The average temperature, sunshine hours, total annual precipitation, the amount of fertilizer and pesticides used and the area affected by disasters are also the main factors for the change of grain production in Henan Province, which shows that the modernization level of grain production in Henan Province is not high. Restricted by meteorological and climatic factors, the ability of disaster prevention and resistance is weak, and there is a strong dependence on chemical fertilizers and pesticides which are easy to cause agricultural non-point source pollution. Agricultural machinery and other scientific and technological input factors have little effect on grain production since 1989, which is obviously lower than that of meteorological and climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation.
【作者单位】：湖北大学资源环境学院;农业部遥感应用中心武汉分中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41471375) 农业部"农业农村资源等监测统计"(06162130111242026)项目资助
【分类号】：F326.11

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